Richard Beeston, Times Diplomatic Editor, has just returned from a visit to Syria. He says that the Government must take radical steps to reverse its current predicament.

What did you discover during on your trip to Syria?

The Syrians do feel isolated and under great pressure, but are still uncertain how to extract themselves from this predicament. They feel that even if they withdraw all their troops from Lebanon, Washington will press ahead with demands for further gestures, like halting support for militant Palestinian groups and cracking down the activities of suspected insurgent supporters in Syria. They have faced American pressure before. What makes their present situation so difficult is that the Europeans are now united against them and even old Arab friends like Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

There is a strong sense that President Bashar al-Assad has few attractive options. Even if he did change course and institute the liberalising reforms that he promised when he came to power five years ago, it is not clear that he has the strength to overcome the powerful entrenched figures in the Government and security services, many of whom have a vested interest in keeping the status quo.

How did it get into this position? Is this all because of the war?

The Bush Administration has made no secret that it regards Syria as a regime that is an associate member of the Axis of Evil. The huge mistake that the Syrians committed was to alienate France, the former colonial power which still takes great interest in Lebanese and Syrian affairs.

The Syrians managed to unite France and America last year when the two pressed for UN Security Council Resolution 1559 calling for the Syrians to get out of Lebanon. This in itself was quite a spectacular diplomatic own goal. After the murder of Rafik Hariri a month ago, the famously divided Christian, Sunni and Druze communities in Lebanon also found common cause against the Syrians.

Added to that list are the Saudis and Egyptians. Syrian officials admitted to me that "mistakes were made", but so far the regime has been unable to win back the initiative. There is a real risk that Damascus will be further isolated, be hit by damaging sanctions and that one of the great powers in the Arab World will become weak and irrelevant.

What are Syria's options now?

The temptation for the regime will be to continue its tried and tested tactics. Offer concessions when absolutely necessary and hope that the current crisis goes away and that international attention moves elsewhere. They will hope to win some backing from the Arab world later this month at the Arab League summit in Algiers, when they can claim that they are pulling out their troops from Lebanon.

The main problem is that no one is going to stick their necks out for Damascus now. President Bashar has alienated potential supporters like France and Britain, whose leaders feel let down by him. The only way I can see for him to redeem himself is to make real domestic reforms and launch an initiative abroad that would signal a break with the past.

Although a peace deal with Israel is highly unlikely while Ariel Sharon, the Israeli Prime Minister, is concentrating on withdrawing from Gaza and dealing with the Palestinian issue, the Syrians could take an initiative in Iraq once a new democratically elected government is in place.

Wasn't the young Assad supposed to usher in a new era, though?

Yes. He came to power with great hopes as a reformer and did initially free political prisoners, take moves to liberalise the economy, free up the press and encourage political debate. But the Damascus Spring was short-lived and soon many of the same dissidents were back behind bars. Economic reforms are very limited and the freedoms people enjoy today seem to stem more from the regime's weakness that a conscious effort to open up the country. He does have a last chance to announce real reforms at the Baath Party Congress scheduled for this summer, but many in Damascus are doubtful that he has the power or the will to force through painful changes, particularly in the face of tough opposition from hardliners inside the regime.

But isn't there strong pro-Syria support from Hezbollah?

Yes Hezbollah did arrange a huge rally last week to bolster support for Syria and it served to demonstrate that Lebanon's Shia Muslims still back Damascus. However, to my knowledge Hezbollah did not ask the Syrian forces to stay and the protest was more of a reflection of Hezbollah's political strength than of Syria's.

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