When Gazans contemplate the death and destruction caused by Israeli aircraft, they may conclude that their tiny, overcrowded coastal strip has been the latest victim of a Middle Eastern “perfect storm”.

Unlike corners of the globe afflicted by typhoons and hurricanes, the Middle East is blessed by good weather but plagued by recurring man-made disasters usually triggered by the lethal convergence of military and political interests.

Ever since Hamas militants seized control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority 18 months ago, a full-scale military confrontation with Israel had been inevitable.

Hamas is committed ideologically to the destruction of the Jewish state and its replacement with an Islamic alternative over the full territory of the British Mandate of Palestine.

This by itself should not necessarily lead to violence. Syria has been in a state of war with Israel for more than 60 years but their common border has been quiet for decades. It is the actions of Hamas that have precipitated the current crisis.

With the open support of Iran and Syria, the Islamic movement has smuggled arms into the strip and pioneered the use of homemade rockets to terrorise the quarter of a million Israelis living near Gaza. The latest target of Hamas rockets was Ashdod, Israel’s second-largest commercial port, 23 miles (35km) north of the Gaza Strip.

When Hamas’s six-month ceasefire expired a few days ago, there were fears that a new cycle of attack and reprisal would begin. From the perspective of the Israeli Government the ideal moment to strike was now. George W. Bush, who has supported Israel throughout his eight years in office, is still in power for three more weeks. Better to finish this operation before Barack Obama arrives at the White House promising to take a fresh look at Middle East peacemaking.

Israel’s domestic politics are also a factor. The ruling Kadima party and its Labour ally are lagging behind the right-wing opposition Likud party in the polls ahead of elections on February 10. Launching a big military operation is risky — as the Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, learnt to his cost after the disastrous Lebanon war in 2006 – but a victory of any sort in Gaza could help the coalition to revive its electoral fortunes.

The big question now is whether Israel is ready to carry out its threat to send ground forces into Gaza, 3½ years after they were withdrawn by Ariel Sharon, then Prime Minister. Back then it had been hoped by some that Gaza could become the model of a Palestinian state. Some even dreamt of turning the long, thin strip of sandy terrain into a Mediterranean Hong Kong.

Unfortunately for Gaza’s 1.5 million inhabitants the dreams never materialised. Gaza today is a giant prison, where law is administered by Hamas militants or the armed gangs that rule the teeming refugee camps, where the local population depends on United Nations handouts to survive.

Gazans are known for their strength of character in the face of appalling living conditions and the daily threat of violence. They must now fear that they will be tested to the limit in 2009.

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