EVEN before rescue workers had arrived on the scene of last night’s deadly bombings in Amman, the authorities in Jordan were pointing the finger at one of their own countrymen, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

The al-Qaeda terrorist leader, whose campaign of violence in Iraq has killed thousands and left the country ungovernable, has long wanted to export his brand of jihad to Jordan, which he and other Islamic militants regard as a puppet kingdom in the service of America.

In attacking Amman’s luxury hotels, al-Zarqawi would also be targeting Western contractors, diplomats and aid workers travelling to or from Iraq to help the US-backed Government. By the time those leaving Baghdad reached Amman they believed they were safe.

According to Jordanian intelligence sources, the authorities in Amman have been waging a constant secret battle to prevent fighters infiltrating the country and using the terror tactics commonly witnessed in neighouring Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the West Bank and Israel.

Until yesterday, Jordan’s notorious intelligence services appeared to have protected the kingdom, which had earned the reputation as a oasis of peace in a region beset by turmoil and bloodshed.

But last night chaos reigned in the normally tranquil streets of the Jordanian capital. In scenes more reminiscent of Baghdad, sirens blared as ambulances raced to hospitals with the wounded, among whom were dozens of guests at a wedding. Paramilitary police and soldiers armed with automatic weapons surrounded the bombed hotels, pushing back the crowds of stunned bystanders craning for a glimpse of the carnage.

“We were shocked, nobody thinks that something like this would happen in Amman,” Ahmed, who lives close to the badly damaged Days Inn Hotel, said. “It is what we expect in Baghdad not here. But things have changed, there are many foreigners here these days.”

As one of only two Arab countries to have made peace with Israel and a close friend of the Bush Administration and Britain, Jordan was bound to become a target sooner or later.

A failed rocket attack off the port of Aqaba by al-Qaeda operatives firing at a US warship shook the regime in June. Although the vessel, the USS Ashland, was undamaged and the only casualty was a Jordanian soldier, the militants had breached Jordan’s defences and would certainly try again.

The authorities in Amman are confident that they have penetrated most local cells, including people close to al-Zarqawi, a former petty thief from a depressed industrial town near Amman who became radicalised in jail. But they do fear foreigners trained by al-Qaeda who have no record in Jordan.

The two al-Qaeda operations that have succeeded in Jordan were committed by foreigners. In 2002 Laurence Foley, a US diplomat, was shot dead by a Libyan. The Aqaba rocket attack this year was carried out by three Syrians and an Iraqi with weapons from Iraq.

Jordan has also foiled some potentially devastating operations, such as the attempt in April last year to bomb the intelligence headquarters, using chemicals that could have killed 80,000 residents. In another incident, a Saudi citizen, travelling on fake Iraqi documents, was arrested at the border in a car packed with explosives.

Jordanian officials believe that between 100 and 300 people try to cross into the country illegally every day from Syria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Some are simply smugglers plying ancient trading routes, but others are intent on attacking the country.

“We know that al-Qaeda wants to export some of its operations outside Iraq, to fragment counter terror and military efforts, but it will choose the timing and type of attack,” a Jordanian official told The Times before last night’s bombings.

Since June, there has been an increase in terrorist attempts in Jordan. At least 130 suspects have been referred to court, and 300 others, Jordanians and Arabs, are in jail either being tried, or already sentenced. They include 36 people now on trial in four cases for allegedly recruiting for, financing or taking part in the Iraq insurgency.

While Jordan’s security services and military are well-trained and loyal to the regime, the country is vulnerable to attack. Jordan has no natural resources and the economic boom enjoyed over the past 15 years has been largely due to its relative stability in such a turbulent region.

Amman, the sleepy capital once described as “Guildford in the desert”, has been transformed by refugees, who have bought homes and opened businesses in a rare stable and tolerant city in the region.

Jordan first thrived in the early 1990s when Palestinians, evicted from Kuwait for their alleged collaboration with the Iraqi invasion and occupation of the Gulf state, arrived with their considerable savings to build lavish villas, send their children to private schools and set up businesses. The next boom followed shortly after when Jordan became the main conduit for goods and people travelling to Iraq, then sealed off from the world by inter national sanctions.

Iraqi businessmen, prospering from sanctions-busting enterprises, established themselves in Amman and investing in luxury hotels and mansions. Expensive cars, sushi restaurants and nightclubs followed in their wake.

The invasion of Iraq brought that period to a dramatic end, but Jordan’s fortunes revived thanks to the turmoil in Iraq. Many United Nations officials, aid workers and diplomats, assigned to Iraq but forbidden from travelling there because of the danger, now reside in Amman, where they attempt to carry out their duties from across the border.

Unless the terrorist threat can be neutralised Jordan’s much-vaunted stability could become a thing of the past.

Times Recommends

• Rio Tinto four held as China prepares case
• Diplomats must keep heads down and trousers up
• When in Rome should one make like Berlusconi?