EVEN before rescue workers had arrived on the scene of tonight’s deadly bombings in Amman, the authorities in Jordan were pointing the finger at one of their own countrymen, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

The al-Qaeda terrorist leader, whose campaign of violence in Iraq has killed thousands and left the country ungovernable, has long wanted to export his brand of jihad to Jordan, which he and other Islamic militants regard as a puppet kingdom in the service of America.

In attacking Amman’s luxury hotels, Zarqawi would also be targeting scores of Western contractors, diplomats and aid workers travelling to or from Iraq to help the US-backed Government.

According to Jordanian intelligence sources, the authorities in Amman have been waging a constant secret battle to prevent fighters infiltrating the country and using the terror tactics commonly witnessed in neighouring Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the West Bank and Israel.

Until tonight, Jordan’s notorious intelligence services appeared to have protected the kingdom, which had earned the reputation as a oasis of peace in a region beset by turmoil and bloodshed.

But as one of only two Arab countries to have made peace with Israel and a close friend of the Bush Administration and of as Britain, Jordan was bound to become a target sooner or later.

A failed rocket attack off the port of Aqaba by al-Qaeda operatives firing at a US warship shook the regime in June. Although the vessel, the USS Ashland, was unharmed and the only casualty was a Jordanian soldier, the militants had breached Jordan’s defences and would certainly try again.

The authorities in Amman are confident that they have penetrated most of the local cells, including people close to Zarqawi, a former petty thief from a depressed industrial town near Amman who became radicalised in prison. But they do fear foreigners trained by al-Qaeda who have no record in Jordan.

The two operations by al-Qaeda that have succeeded in Jordan were both committed by foreigners. In 2002 Laurence Foley, a US diplomat was shot dead by a Libyan. The Aqaba rocket attack this year was carried out by three Syrians and an Iraqi who smuggled their weapons from Iraq.

The authorities have also foiled some potentially devastating operations such as the attempt in April 2004 to bomb the intelligence headquarters, using chemicals that could have killed 80,000 citizens in the area. In another incident, a Saudi citizen, travelling on fake Iraqi documents, was arrested at the Karamah border in a car packed with explosives.

Jordanian officials believe that between 100 and 300 people try to cross into the country illegally every day from Syria, Iraqi and Saudi Arabia. Some are simply smugglers plying ancient trading routes, but others are intent on attacking the country.

“We know that al-Qaeda wants to export some of its operations outside Iraq, to fragment counter terror and military efforts, but it will choose the timing and type of attack,” a Jordanian official told The Times before last night’s bombings.

Since the Aqaba attack, there has been an increase in terror attempts in Jordan. At least 130 suspects have been referred to court, and 300 others, Jordanians and Arabs, are in Jordanian jails, either being tried, or already sentenced.

They include 36 people now on trial in four cases for allegedly recruiting for, financing or taking part in the Iraq insurgency.

While Jordan’s security services and military are well-trained and loyal to the regime, the country is vulnerable to attack. Jordan has no natural resources and the economic boom enjoyed over the past 15 years has been largely due to its relative stability in such a turbulent region.

Amman, the sleepy capital once described as “Guilford in the desert”, has been transformed by refugees from across the region who have bought homes and opened businesses in a rare stable and tolerant city.

Jordan first thrived in the early 1990s when Palestinians, evicted from Kuwait after their alleged collaboration with the Iraqi invasion and occupation of the Gulf state, arrived with their considerable savings to build lavish villas, send their children to private schools and set up businesses. The next boom followed shortly after when Jordan became the main conduit for goods and people travelling to Iraq, then sealed off from the world by international sanctions.

Iraqi businessmen, earning small fortunes in sanctions-busting enterprises, established themselves in Amman and were soon investing in luxury hotels and mini mansions. Expensive cars, sushi restaurants and nightclubs followed in their wake.

The invasion of Iraq brought that period to a dramatic end, but Jordan’s fortunes revived again thanks to the turmoil in Iraq.

Many United Nations officials, aid workers and diplomats assigned to Iraq but forbidden from travelling there because of the danger now reside in Amman where they attempt to carry out their duties from across the border.

Unless the terrorist threat can be neutralised Jordan’s much-vaunted stability could become a thing of the past.

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