Ian MacKinnon, Jerusalem Correspondent of The Times, says four months is a long time in Israeli politics, but Mr Sharon is well placed to lead his new party to victory in a snap election

The polls suggest that Mr Sharon's gamble will pay off handsomely and that he will be re-elected in March. Is it that clear-cut?

Four months is a long time in Israeli politics but at this stage the polls are definitely showing him as the most popular politician around. He would have a commanding lead over both Labour and Likud and an ability to form a coalition with anyone he wants to. That would most likely be Labour, but you never know. He needs to get that number of seats first, then there would be some hard bargaining.

Are the polls a reflection of Mr Sharon's popularity, or more of a desire for peace?

A bit of both. Mr Sharon is obviously linked with the disengagement from Gaza, which is seen as a bold step. There is a general desire for peace among Israelis, but he is by far the most popular politician in Israel.

What is Mr Sharon up to now? Does he have to persuade people to join him?

He said yesterday that he had not yet had much time to talk to people. Now he's got the chance. There is a splinter group of 14 MPs from Likud, which means that it can now be considered a party in its own right and get some state funding. Mr Sharon said last night that he would obviously be talking to others, hoping to persuade them to come on board. That's what he will be doing over the next day or two - he's not been seen in public today.

How is the Israeli press reacting to the move?

Everyone considers it a huge shift, the biggest in 30 years since Likud was first elected in 1977. And most are saying it's positive, a chance for a new era and a new hope for peace. That's how Sharon is portraying it, he's saying that he wanted to act in the best interests of Israel, but he couldn't do that with an obstructionist Likud.

What about Likud - is it finished as a major force?

No, not quite, although the obviously the polls suggest that it will get only 15 per cent of the votes, down to 15 or seats in the Knesset, which is obviously not bad considering that Labour only has 21 and there are other parties like the Shas Party, which has only 11 seats. It means that Likud will be a more ideologically coherent right-wing party, confined to the Right of Israeli politics. A lot of people who voted for it last time were pragmatic, centrist, secular Israelis, who wanted to vote for security. Those voters may look elsewhere.

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