It would be a grave mistake to dismiss this week’s sudden increase of violence in Gaza as just another typical episode in the turbulent history of this Palestinian enclave.

The clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters come at a very precarious moment in the region, where diplomatic efforts have largely stalled, tensions are again mounting across the border in Lebanon, and America is unable to seize the diplomatic initiative.

There had been hopes after the fighting this summer in southern Lebanon and Gaza that the United Nations ceasefire would result in a new peace effort in the region.

Mediation has concentrated on two tracks. At one level foreign intermediaries have been trying to reach a deal for a grand prisoner swap to exchange an Israeli corporal for hundreds of Palestinian detainees. A similar exchange is also being discussed with Hezbollah, the militant Muslim group in Lebanon, whose seizure of two Israeli soldiers provoked this summer’s war.

The other focus is on resolving the deadlock in the Palestinian Authority. Here the effort is to create a national unity government between Hamas and Fatah. This could happen once Hamas agrees to recognise Israel’s existence and renounce violence.

In turn, the West would resume its funding for the authority. None of these initatives stands a chance at present, with Hamas threatening new attacks against Israel in retaliation for the deaths of 18 Palestinian civilians.

Underpinning the turmoil is the instability across the border in Lebanon, where Hezbollah, Hamas’s ally, has threatened to use its supporters to bring down the pro-Western Government in Beirut.

At such critical times in the past the region has looked to the West, and in particular America, to restore calm. But after its election defeat, the Bush Administration seems less able than ever to play a strong role.

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