From disciples to diplomats, the road to Damascus has long been taken by those seeking a change of heart or strengthened resolve.

But were Tony Blair to arrive in the Syrian capital for talks tomorrow with President Bashar Assad on how to change the West’s approach to the strategic disaster that is the ‘New Middle East’, his meeting would be less about revelations, more about rebukes.

For as many Syrian analysts point out, London and Washington’s policy of isolating Syria, which grew more acute in the wake of the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, has simply not worked.

Iraq’s brutal violence turned out to stem largely from Iraqis themselves, not the hordes of "foreign fighters" streaming across the Syrian border, an accusation against Damascus which was the long standing mantra of Donald Rumsfeld, the now departed US Defence Secretary.

US trade sanctions imposed on Syria over its alleged role in fuelling Iraqi instability have proved an inconvenience to luxury hotels, the IT sector and the Syrian state airline, but have not crippled the economy, which boosted by investments from Gulf oil money grew by a respectable 5.5 per cent last year, according to official statistics.

The carrot of an EU free trade with Damascus, put on ice after Hariri’s killing, now holds little enticement for Syrian businesses which have grown adept at side-stepping official restrictions.

Lebanon, seen by many as Syria’s Achilles Heel for its geo-strategic importance to Damascus, may have seen the back of Syrian troops in the wake of Hariri’s killing.

But the end of occupation has led to political assassinations, war between the Syrian-backed Hezbollah and Israel, and now the potential downfall of the Western-backed government at the hands of Syria’s Lebanese allies.

The question the political classes in Damascus ask is simply: what can the US and UK now offer Syria in any deal-making?

The return of the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights, lost in the 1967 Middle East war, remains Damascus’ primary strategic goal. Freeing occupied territory from the "Israeli aggressor" is the PR boost this four-decade old Baath regime craves.

But with Israel’s prime minister lacking the confidence of his generals, and with Bush and Blair’s authority in the region much diminished, few believe any such deal can be struck soon.

One source of Western leverage over Damascus remains: the UN inquiry into Hariri’s murder, which has already implicated senior Syrian security officials and which has been a Damocles Sword hanging over the neck of the regime for 18 months.

But with Hezbollah and its allies demanding extra cabinet seats that would give them a veto over the Lebanese government, a large question mark now hangs over the future of the international tribunal being set up to prosecute Hariri’s killers.

Tony Blair may persuade George Bush that talks with Syria are necessary, but they will know the price for Syrian cooperation will not come cheap.

As Ziad Haidar, Damascus correspondent of Lebanon’s As Safir daily noted: "The Syrians will not give anything for free, and if that’s what the British want from talks then it’s extremely bad timing."

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