"In terms of sheer numbers, this echoes the Cedar Revolution of last year, when thousands rallied after the assassination in February of Rafik Hariri, the former anti-Syrian Prime Minister.

"Hezbollah, which is the driving force behind this protest, has enormous capacity to rally a huge mob. As well as the protesters it has around 15,000 security people out on the streets, wearing baseball caps and making sure the crowds are behaving.

"The catalyst for the protest is the UN tribunal aimed at finding the killers of Hariri. The Lebanese government has recently approved the establishment of such a tribunal, consisting of both Lebanese as well as international judges.

"The protest is being seen by supporters of the government as a last-ditch effort by the pro-Syrian lobby to thwart the tribunal. Hezbollah’s motives on this are not really to do with domestic politics; this has much wider implications.

"It is widely believed that Syria was involved in the death of Hariri, and now its allies - Hezbollah and Iran - are trying to dig it out of that hole.

"If Hezbollah can push out the Lebanese government, they gain on two grounds – delaying or discrediting the UN tribunal, as well as getting rid of a Western-backed government which enables the US to have a foothold in the Middle East. The US is using that foothold to exert its influence in the area, and to put pressure on Iran.

"Syria is the key component – if it does end up being forced before the tribunal and found guilty in relation to the Hariri assassination, it is likely to implicate not only senior Syrian officials but also pro-Syrian Lebanese authorities. Then Syria would be withdrawn from the orbit of both Hezbollah and Iran – an outcome which neither want.

"The demonstration itself has been peaceful so far, and the protestors are also planning a sit-in. Although this probably won’t topple the government, it will paralyse Lebanon – both economically and politically.

"The people who will really suffer are the ordinary Lebanese who are trying to earn a living – we have already been hearing cries for help from the business community.

"The fear is that the deadlock will create further chaos and instability, with the possibility of clashes, random bomb attacks and possibly more assassinations. "

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