That's that then. The massive street demonstrations have been crushed. Iran's security and intelligence services have locked up thousands of opponents. Opposition newspapers, websites and bloggers are being systematically shut down. The regime's Orwellian mouthpieces have shamelessly declared the election to be an epic milestone in the 30-year history of the Islamic republic, and the US and European Union want to resume talks about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

For the millions of Iranians who campaigned with such exuberance before the election, and who are convinced that Mir Hossein Mousavi was robbed of the presidency by blatant electoral fraud, the only way left to vent their anger is to go up to their roofs at night and shout 'Allahu Akbar' (God is great) in one collective wail of despair. Even that is becoming dangerous, with reports that basiji - Islamic volunteer militiamen - are storming the homes of those who dare to sing God's praises.

Those millions do not face a return to the status quo ante, however. Henceforth their lives will be far worse than they were before the June 12 ballot. An extreme, fundamentalist faction has staged a coup against a relatively moderate and pragmatic revolutionary old guard. It controls the security forces, judiciary, media and machinery of government. The social repression of President Ahmadinejad's first term will look mild compared to what is coming, for that is the only way this severely weakened regime can now maintain power.

The authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, has been destroyed. Once regarded as the infallible linchpin of the entire system, he is now seen as just another ruthless political conspirator. He rules through military, not moral, might. His edicts have been defied. Iranians chant "Death to Khamenei" - unthinkable a month ago.

The election has opened gaping chasms within Iran's political establishment, with Mr Mousavi and the former presidents Mohammed Khatami and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani leading the resistance.

The regime has lost its last shred of legitimacy. Those Islamic and revolutionary values it claims to champion turn out to be lying, cheating and the wholesale beating, butchering and incarceration of its own people for daring to protest. Whenever it claims moral superiority over the west it will be haunted by the image of Neda Soltan.

Above all the regime has incurred the visceral hatred of the disenfranchised millions, and radicalised a generation of Iranian youth. Their fury will not dissipate. It will fester and grow until one day it erupts. As the American academic Gary Sick recalls, the Iranian uprising against the Shah began in January 1978 and took a year to reach its climax - a year punctured by long periods of quiescence. "This is not a sprint; it is a marathon," he argues. "Endurance is at least as important as speed."

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