THE moment that Hezbollah gunmen crossed into northern Israel yesterday morning on a mission to kill and capture Israeli soldiers, the region was plunged into its most serious crisis in years.

What had begun days ago in Gaza as a localised battle over the fate of an Israeli soldier captured by Palestinian militants suddenly spiralled into a regional conflagration.

On the surface Hezbollah’s actions seem self-defeating. The group, which began as a militant force that pioneered the use of suicide bombers and kidnappings, has been at pains to transform itself into a political party in Lebanon.

It has MPs in parliament, two ministers in the Cabinet and plays an important social and religious part in the lives of many of the country’s Shia Muslims, Lebanon’s largest and most neglected community.

So what made Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader who ordered the incursion, take the gamble of provoking Israel into a potential new war?

First, yesterday’s action will be hugely popular in the Middle East. With mounting anger Arabs have watched the Israeli incursion into Gaza this month with no attempt by Arab or foreign leaders to stop the violence. Hezbollah has now intervened in dramatic fashion. Its television station al-Manar is making sure that everyone knows. Sheikh Nasrallah has stated that he intends to swap the three captured Israeli soldiers for Arab prisoners. In the past Hezbollah has successfully completed this human trade with Israeli leaders and clearly hopes to repeat the process.

The group also hopes that by provoking a military confrontation with Israel it can continue to justify the existence of its militia, which should have been disbanded under a UN agreement but which remains the most powerful force defending the country.

Beyond Hezbollah’s interests, the group also has to take into account Syria and Iran, the countries that have armed and funded its operations for more than two decades. Experts believe that it is unlikely that yesterday’s operations would have been ordered without reference to Damascus. The regime enjoys huge influence in Lebanon. It is eager to prove to Ehud Olmert, the new Israeli Prime Minister, and the West, that Syria’s role in Lebanon is vital in keeping stability in the region. They want to demonstrate that without the Syrians the country will revert to anarchy and more violence.

As for Iran, Hezbollah’s main spiritual and military ally, it will be hoping that the crisis will deflect attention from its nuclear programme, which would otherwise have dominated the debate at the G8.

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