THE Israeli Prime Minister is playing for extraordinarily high stakes — for himself, President Bush and Tony Blair.

Ehud Olmert’s declaration that there would be no immediate ceasefire needs no explaining in terms of Israeli public opinion. His earlier commitment to a 48-hour pause in the bombing to allow Lebanese civilians to escape lasted just hours in the face of uproar at home.

But it will bring Israel even more isolation abroad than it has yet faced, coming only a day after the deaths of 37 children in an Israeli airstrike.

It is a rebuff to Blair, Bush and Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State. As Israel’s most resolute allies, they have pledged their faith that this week would bring progress in securing a “durable ceasefire”.

Even though Olmert’s office qualified the message later, saying that a ceasefire might be possible if an international peacekeeping force were sent in, this seems so insubstantial an offer as to be mere diplomatic cover. Few governments are likely to rush to contribute peacekeeping troops until a ceasefire is in place.

Blair will now be under ferocious pressure from a hostile Labour Party to justify his declaration of “complete inner confidence” in his strategy.

Even before Olmert’s sudden reversal, only three Cabinet members publicly backed Blair’s decision not to call for an immediate Israeli ceasefire: Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, who is all but obliged to do so by virtue of her position; Tessa Jowell, the Culture Secretary, one of the shrunken band of loyal Blair supporters, and Lord Falconer of Thoroton, the Lord Chancellor, Blair’s closest personal friend in the Cabinet.

But Beckett has indicated in several crisp interviews the strain of holding that position in the face of Labour Party unrest, while Jack Straw, her predecessor, now Leader of the Commons, has called Israel’s action disproportionate.

For Rice, the predicament is also tough, even though the support for Israel’s actions is far less publicly controversial in the US than in Britain.

Rice flew back from the region yesterday, having wrested the ceasefire pledge from Olmert, to headlines around the world. She had said that she would concentrate next on drafting the United Nations resolution which the US hoped would underpin a ceasefire.

But Israel’s move makes a nonsense of the main plan on which Blair, in particular, had based his position: a UN peace-keeping force in southern Lebanon. Blair had spent the hours before Olmert’s comments in telephone diplomacy, trying to ensure that Turkey and other key countries would take part in that force.

Britain had hoped that France would emerge as leader of that force, while Sweden and Norway said that they would consider taking part, and Egypt might have played a role, possibly patrolling the Syrian border to prevent Hezbollah rearming.

Blair, and many other leaders, were in danger of resting too many hopes on that force, which remained fanciful while key questions remained unanswered. Who would supply the troops, given that the US and Britain would not? And would it have a mandate to take on Hezbollah, risking violent counter-attack, like the 1983 barracks bombing that led to the exit of one international force? Or would it risk impotence and derision, of the kind suffered by the current Unifil force, because of a mandate to keep the peace and not pick a fight? To judge from preparations for a European Union meeting, which had been due today, that seemed the more likely option.

The most threatening unanswered question was whether the force could move in if Hezbollah rejected its presence. Surely not, many thought.

Those questions are now irrelevant. Too many of the possible members of the force are likely to make a ceasefire a condition of taking part. While Israeli bombing continues, it is hard to see the talks getting off the ground.

Blair, even more than Bush (or Rice), has declared that his policy in Iraq and Israel springs from his own vision and convictions. He surely didn’t see yesterday’s jolt coming. It is a profound test of what political capital he retains.

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