EXIT polls showed that the Islamist group Hamas was set to deprive Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah faction of its majority in the Palestinian Parliament, marking a huge shift in the balance of power in Middle East politics.

As voting ended last night in the historic parliamentary election, the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research predicted that Fatah would lose its majority, capturing only 58 seats out of a total of 132.

Another exit poll, conducted by Bir Zeit University, showed 46.4 per cent for the secular nationalist Fatah, giving it 63 out of 132 seats but denying an absolute majority, with 39.5 per cent — 58 seats — for its Islamist rival.

Whatever the final outcome, the Islamist group, contesting its first parliamentary elections, is certain to be a key player in power or in opposition.

Israel and the White House immediately gave warning that they would not deal with a Palestinian Authority that included the militant group as long as it continued to call for the destruction of the Jewish state.

The Central Elections Commission was not due to announce official preliminary results until this morning because of the high 77.7 per cent turnout among 1.3 million eligible voters and the complexity of the voting system.

But after a day of celebratory Palestinian banner-waving and honking of car horns outside 1,008 polling stations, all polls indicated that Fatah will be left short of the 67 seats needed for an overall majority, and will have to rely on smaller parties.

These include Mustafa Barghouti’s Independent Palestine, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and a list including the Democratic Front, and the Third Way of Salam Fayyed, the Finance Minister, and Hanan Ashrawi.

“Neither Fatah nor Hamas can form the Cabinet on its own, so they need to get into a coalition with other factions or with each other,” said Dr Khalil Shikaki, of the pollster PCPSR.

Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian Authority’s chief negotiator, retained hope that Fatah could still reach the 67 needed for a majority. “If we cannot, the first option is the other parties, who may get 15 seats,” he said.

“We may join them to form the Cabinet, or to see who are the parties — including Hamas — who are willing to accept the Palestinian Authority’s obligations vis-a-vis the peace process, one authority, one gun and the rule of law.”

After lengthy queues but few problems across the West Bank and Gaza, Mr Abbas, the Palestinian President, described the day as an “election festival”. “We are approaching a new period and we hope that the international community will help us to return to the negotiating table,” he said.

However many fear that Hamas’s stong showing will tilt the Palestinian Authority towards confrontation and away from peace talks.

Ehud Olmert, Israel’s acting Prime Minister, said last night: “Israel cannot allow Hamas to become part of the Palestinian Authority in its current form. Hamas is a terrorist organisation which calls for the destruction of Israel and must be disarmed.”

Although the White House hailed the election as an “historic and significant day for the Palestinian people”, President Bush gave warning that, even if Hamas attained positions of responsibility, he would not change US policy.

“A political party, in order to be viable, is one that professes peace, in my judgment, in order that it will keep the peace,” he told The Wall Street Journal. “Not until you renounce your desire to destroy Israel will we deal with you.”

Ismail Haniya, Hamas’s top candidate, did little to ease this international concern when he delivered a hardline message while voting at a girls’ school in Gaza’s Beach Camp: “The Americans and the Europeans say to Hamas: either you have weapons or you enter the legislative council. “We say weapons and the legislative council. There is no contradiction between the two.”

Despite the international alarm, many Palestinian voters focused on internal issues, accepting President Abbas’s view that the Islamists will be forced to moderate their positions after being brought into the political process.

Voters yesterday cited corruption, nepotism and growing lawlessness as factors influencing them to switch sides.

VOTERS HAVE THEIR SAY

'I pleaded many times but they (the Palestinian Authority) gave us the cold shoulder. Hamas have given us cans of beef, rice, tea, macaroni, peas, flour, clothes and school uniform for my children. Why do we like Hamas? Because they value our emotions and feelings'
Abu Mohammed Qadr, 42, a streetsweeper in Gaza City, voted Hamas

'I have a responsibility to fight corruption and lawlessness. It is a religious and national duty. Two years ago my neighbours’ daughter was kidnapped, raped and killed by three men. They were captured and the PA promised to execute them, but they did not. The authority overlooks such cases. Aid money is stolen by the PA while Hamas do not do such things'
Sariya Slaman Abdel Ali, mother, voted Hamas

'I’m an artist and I love my freedoms, so I’m not going to vote for Hamas. But I know that many voters will. Not because they love Hamas, but because they don’t have a good feeling about those who lead them now'
Taysir Barakat, 46, an artist in Ramallah, voted independent

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