Stephen Farrell, Middle East Correspondent for The Times, assesses the consequences of Israel's prison raid

"This incident broke out because Israel wanted to arrest Ahmed Saadat, a Palestinian leader who has been accused of ordering the assassination of Israeli cabinet minister, Rehavam Zeevi, in 2001.

"The Israelis wanted him to stand trial in an Israeli court, but the Palestinians would not agree to hand him over.

"His detention is all very messy. He has not stood trial. Eventually a deal was beaten out for him to stay in a Palestinian prison under British and American supervision, to make sure that he stayed there.

"But today the British and the American monitors pulled out, saying that the Palestinians were not abiding by the agreement to keep Saadat in seclusion. This meant that Saadat was effectively left in a Palestinian prison with no international supervision and Israel thought that the Palestinians would just let him go.

"The British, Americans and Israelis will say that the Palestinans failed to abide by their side of the bargain. It is said that Saadat had free rein in the jail, he was allowed access to a mobile phone for example. Those supervising said that it was not a proper prison.

"The Palestinians also failed to guarantee the safety of British and American monitors. These monitors gave repeated warnings that they would pull the plug. They told the Palestinian and Israelis that they intended to do this.

"There is anger among Palestinians against the British and Americans. They see the monitors' withdrawal as a British and American betrayal. But the monitors will say that the safety of their people is paramount, and the Palestinians failed to hold up their side of the agreement.

"Israel is saying, 'This guy was jailed under an agreement and the agreement has broken down, so we're going to take him into custody'.

"With Israeli elections in the offing, the Israeli government wants to show that it is tough on security. Israel was not prepared to let the alleged killer of a cabinet minister walk free.

"Clearly there has been a gun battle, provoking a political crisis which is going to have a destabilising effect. It will create anger on the Palestinian side. I don't think Hamas will blow something up over this issue but that does not rule other Palestinian factions.

"The atmosphere remains very tense but it is difficult to make predictions."

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