ISRAELIS who never voted for Ariel Sharon offered up their prayers yesterday for the father figure of Israeli politics. Yet most accepted that an era is over.

The line of former generals who played a part in the founding of the Israeli state 58 years ago will end when Mr Sharon, a figure of colossal stature in the Jewish arena, leaves the stage. None of the actors who follow him can match his aura or take the high-wire political risks that prompted him to withdraw from the Jewish settlements in Gaza.

Mr Sharon’s departure so soon after he abandoned the Likud party he helped to form to set up the centrist Kadima to fight the general election scheduled for March leaves a void and huge uncertainty.

The fledgeling Kadima could disintegrate even before the poll. Its electoral support and its Knesset members may begin to return to their old party homes without the draw of the Prime Minister.

Even with the former leader Shimon Peres on board, the infant Kadima is likely to see its support tumble and its share of the 120 Knesset seats fall to 20 from the 40 predicted only days ago.

“The bottom line is that Israeli voters were committed to Kadima because it was led by Mr Sharon,” said Professor Yaron Ezrahi, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “He was the only political figure who could carry out the Gaza withdrawal, a political act so risky that other leaders were unable or unwilling to try.

“They also realised he’s the only one who could in future fold up settlements in the West Bank, capturing the unprecedented mood of the Israeli public. There’s no one else to match his moral standing in the Israel political landscape, and Kadima is likely to lose out as voters return to their original homes.”

Kadima’s loss of ground will probably see a leaching of votes to the Left and Right, the key beneficiaries being Labour, under Amir Peretz, and Likud, with Binyamin Netanyahu at the helm. Analysts believe that the three main parties could take roughly equal numbers of seats, leading to the formation of a coalition government. The level of violence with Palestinians may well be the key factor to influence whether left-wing or right-wing parties dominate.

“The elections are likely to produce a centre-left coalition if the violence with the Palestinians doesn’t escalate towards polling day,” Professor Ezrahi said. “If it grows we’ll get a centre-right coalition. So once more the outcome will depend on the Palestinians.” Mr Sharon had until today been seen as the front-runner to lead the next government. Now the horizon is clouded by yet more uncertainty.“It’s impossible to tell who’s going to be the next prime minister,” Professor Ezrahi said. “As a political scientist in Israel I know that no one can make that prediction.”

On the streets, Israelis reacted nervously to news of Mr Sharon’s illness. Eli Arditi, 48, spoke for many when he said: “I’m concerned because I know no other leader will be able to do what Ariel Sharon did. I don’t even know what he planned next, but I’d have voted for him and taken it on trust. Now I don’t know what to do.”

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