Sarah Baxter
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THE former presidential front-runner, John McCain, may drop out of the 2008 race by September if his fundraising dries up and his poll ratings continue to drop, according to Republican insiders.
The speculation, vigorously denied by McCain’s camp, is sweeping Republican circles after a disastrous few weeks in which the principled Arizona senator has clashed with the party’s conservative base on immigration and also alienated independent voters by backing President George W Bush’s troop surge in Iraq.
Randy Pullen, chairman of the Arizona Republican party, said: “He’s a battler, so I’d expect him to carry on, but everyone is waiting to see what his new fundraising totals are. That’s pretty critical. If he doesn’t have the money, he won’t be able to run.”
The second fundraising quarter for candidates closes at the end of June and McCain’s results should be known by mid-July.
Dan Schnur, McCain’s communications director during the 2000 presidential campaign, said it was “possible” that he could drop out: “There are all sorts of challenges McCain is facing, from fundraising to Fred Thompson and the Iraq war, but the biggest single boulder in his path is the immigration issue.”
One veteran Republican consultant put the odds of McCain remaining in the race beyond the autumn at 3-1 against. “He’ll be gone by September,” predicted Tom Edmonds, who is not affiliated with any campaign.
“The wheels are coming off his wagon and it’s hard to see how he can recover. He won’t be able to pay all the good talent he has hired and they’ll want to drift away from a loser.”
A poll by Rasmussen Reports last week showed McCain lying joint third with Mitt Romney, the Mormon former governor of Massachussetts, with the support of just 10% of Republican voters. This compared with 28% for Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator, and 27% for Rudy Giuliani, New York’s mayor at the time of the September 11 terrorist attacks.
Another poll in Iowa, a crucial early voting state, put McCain in fifth place behind Mike Hucka-bee, the former governor of Arkansas, with only 6%.
McCain has already shed some high-level staff to save money and could slim down further, according to Schnur.
“If another difficult fundraising report forces McCain to retool his campaign and run again as an insurgent and outsider, it might not be a bad thing,” he said. “His best days as a campaigner in 2000 came when he faced extremely formidable opponents on a shoestring budget and a skeleton staff.”
Feelings are running so high against Bush’s immigration bill, which opponents decry as an amnesty for illegal immigrants, that McCain may not win the support of Arizona, his home state on the border of Mexico.
“It looks to me like Arizona will be in play,” Pullen said. “The immigration issue is clearly hurting him with the base of the party.”
Supporters and critics agree that McCain’s resolute, battle-tested character could prevent him leaving the race, no matter what the difficulties.
“Given his disposition and his history, it’s more unlikely for him [to drop out] than other candidates facing the same situation,” said Schnur.
A McCain campaign insider said: “Reports of his death are greatly exaggerated. We’re in the precampaign phase when everybody is trying hysterically to read the tea leaves, but after September the lights will go on and everybody will see that we’ve got a candidate who has stood before, doesn’t need on-the-job training and has the resources to compete.”
McCain recently decided not to stand in a straw poll to be held in Iowa in August, fearing an embarrassing defeat.
Giuliani is forgoing the event for the same reason, but has managed to cling on to the lead in most polls despite a turbulent few weeks. Thomas Ravenel, who chaired Giuliani’s campaign in South Carolina, was charged last week with conspiring to distribute crack cocaine.
McCain faces a further challenge if Michael Bloomberg, the mayor of New York, decides to stand and courts the same independent voters as the former Vietnam prisoner of war, as well as using a predicted $1 billion of his fortune.
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MAC will beat Ba'rack. McCain is the only remaining candidate worthy to be POTUS. Get a grip bloggers. The U.S. needs Mccain more than McCain needs to be president!
SFC, D. Grant Cheesman, Elizabeth, United States
This is a sold out bloggers haven for dims only! Senator, and great leader, John McCain will be POTUS--in 2009.
SFC, D. Grant Cheesman, Elizabeth, United States
Mccain has fooled Arizonians for years. Don.t take the bait America!
You will be screwed without even being kissed first!
joe, Peoria, AZ
We are hoping Ron Paul gets the recognition he deserves.We are going to write him in in any case,
What a sorry choice for Republicans.This is what we deserve after strongly supporting Bush.The only reason we did so last time was the murder(abortion) issue.Morally we had no choice.
Ms.A Becjkley&Family, Mesa, Az.
I believe after seeing an actual straw poll at the American Taxpayers Union, that Ron Paul is running a strong second behind Thompson and will overtake him once the lesser known candidates fall by the wayside. Also, in a poll at the DailyKos.com, pitting Ron Paul one on one against Hillary, Ron garnered a strong 89% of the vote. The DailyKos is a overwhelmingly Democratic site, and Hillary's 11% probably was a sharp stick in the eye for them. After the 1st Republcan debate Ron got more votes for his performance 18,000+ to less than 9000 for all the 9 other candidates combined.. Ron easily dominated the next two debates, raising 5 million in individual donations, the week after the second.In our county there are 3 Ron Paul meetup groups that get together weekly, each with hundreds of fanaticall member. Fred Thompson has one meetup group with one member. Thousands of people are switching to the Republican Party so that we can support Ron in the Florida Primary. We're taking back America
Michael Flynn, Tarpon Springs, FL
If Giuliani and Thompson are the front-runners, it sounds like the base is no longer "conservative." Where did the conservatives go?
Jim, Washingon, D.C.
The only honest candidate is Ron Paul.
Unless we support his campaign financially, the party hacks will prevail. The neocons have trashed the Republican party leaving the door open for Hillary or a surprise by Al Gore.
Bob Gonzalez, Los Angeles, California
This is all good news for Ron Paul. His poll numbers continue to climb, he's been raising a lot of money, and he has ALWAYS been against amnesty.
Andy, Manchester, New Hampshire
If you love the Country.
If you love the Constitution.
Ya gotta love RON PAUL!
Demosthenes, Orlando, FL
Mr. Mitt Romney for me forever!!! Win or lose, we respect and love him and he had show that he can be the best leader there is. More power for President Romney!
C, Redlands, CA
The Arizona Conservative is calling for McCain to withdraw from the race.
Dennis Durband, Chandler, AZ
John McCain is a fraud and a hypocrite. He never should have had any support at all.
Howard, Peoria, AZ
Why wait ? Although, given McCain's several years in the federal legislature, he is well experienced in wasting money.
Tom, Phoenix,
I would like to think that any candidate Republican or Democrat that associates himself with AIPAC will be viewed as anti American. May Mccain be just the first to fall. The sheeple may at last be wising up.
Hal O'Leary, Wheeling, WV
I live in Arizona and don't like what McCain stands for on immigration, foreign policy or monetary reform. The sooner he drops out the better. Stand for Liberty, Stand for Ron Paul.
Stuart Cole, Flagstaff, AZ
I could care less about John McCain, he's just another neoCON that wants to stay on the same disasterous course that we've been on with the last 7 years of George Bush.
The only candidate Republican candidate worth considering is RON PAUL. He represents what the conservatives use to believe before they sold out to the big money global corporations! Ron Paul leads in all of the post Rep debate polls on the Internet but still gets absolutely no coverage in the Manstream Media. Why does the US media ignore him? Why are they trying to suppress the will of the American voters??
David, Portland, Oregon
John McCain cheerlead Bush's Ignore Osama, make America less safe, help enbolden the terrorists, misuse our troops for corporate profits, play guitar as New Orleans drowns, Attorneygate, illegal wiretapping, torturous nonsense.
As a result he's lost the left, the center, + the center right.
Simultaneously, the Let's Hate Others (Mexicans, non christians, gays, etc...) Wingnuts won't forgive McCain on immigration so McCain has no constituency.
Thus, he's toast.
big Dave from queens, queens, ny
All of these comments are very accurate. I do think the Senator takes unpopular stands b/c he believes them to be right. i think with him at the helm, we would win in Iraq. We would reform immigration.
Mr. McCain has a long history of getting things done and working across the aisle. the Republicans need to promote a moderate stance; going ultra-conservative has alienated many reasonable people. Republicans must realize the need to work not as one party, but for one country.
John McCain is a conservative, but not on everything. That makes him reasonable. He is also principled, strong and experienced. Yet the Republicans are putting a mayor, a carpetbagging former governor and an actor-turned-senator who never sponsored a bill in his entire political career. What is wrong with the right these days? I'm a Republican and I see no better, more honest, experienced or passionate candidate than Senator McCain.
Matt DeBarbieri, Derby, CT,
The security of the world is at issue. For Americans. America is the only world they know off.
And going by what Bush has done, attacking Iraq based on lies , the world does not believe Bush or America anymore.
McCain is the son of the man who covered up for Israel in the USS Liberty fiasco.
The genes carry on.
Mat, HK,
I respect McCain's fortitude when he takes a stand, but with a real conservative like Fred T. coming in, McCain and Rudy are toast.
Dave, Toddville, Iowa, USA
I'll speculate here, but no more than the article or the comments so far. It's likely that there is considerable concern within the upper ranks of the Republican Party because they're facing a rare situation--no unproblematic front-runner in a party that knows how to win Presidential elections even with pathetic candidates. McCain's days appear to be numbered. And here comes Fred Thompson, who is being embraced uncritically and somewhat desperately by people unhappy with the flawed Giuliani and Romney. My hunch is that the powers that be have decided that Thompson can dominate in the south and do well enough elsewhere to beat whoever the Democrats choose. We'll see. But there is trouble among the Republicans.
Ray Pence, Lawrence, Kansas, U.S.
Ron Paul is the only one who will end the empire and restore the republic. Unlike McCain, Giuliani, Brownback, Bloomberg, Clinton, or Obama he is against illegal immigration. He is a hawk on the budget, unlike the tax and spend Democrats and the borrow and spend Republicans. He will dismantle the police state being created by Bush and our worthless congressmen. He is the only one in Congress who hasn't been bought.
Bob, Westbury, NY
The U.S. Veteran Dispatch had an article in June of 1996 entitled "POW Songbird McCain Wrongly Described As A Hero." It recounted numerous instances where John McCain violated the Military Code of Conduct, which specifically orders American personnel to give the enemy no information other than name, rank, serial number, and date of birth. It requires that they accept no favors from the enemy, and to make no written or oral statement disloyal to the United States.
The fact is, in exchange for better medical treatment, McCain violated this code four days after being captured on Oct. 26, 1967. In a U.S. News and World Report interview dated May 14, 1973, two months after he was released, McCain admitted that he exchanged military information in exchange for spending six weeks in a hospital normally reserve for North Vietnamese Military officers.
U.S. government records show that less than two weeks after he was taken to the hospital, Hanoi's press began quoting specific military ic
ken wagner, Mansfield, MA
It is not just the far right that is now pitted against mcCain's stances, it is the moderate conservatives and independents as well. Even on just the illegal immigration issue, he is standing behind legislation that 80%+ of the American people are against - and that includes the majorities on the right, left and the middle.
Dan Drennan, Dallas, TX USA
Well good riddance. He's no more conservative than Hillary Clinton is.There is scant difference anymore between the two parties, they rely on simple rhetoric to trick the masses.Unfortunately the general public are too dumbed-down to look at the voting records of these candidates and realize they are all serving global, and special interests, not the people.The only real, viable candidate who has stood apart from the pack is Ron Paul. His voting record in his 10 terms as a congressman shows he walks the walk.The rest of the pack will keep the borders unsecured, allow the illegals to pour in, more war, more unchecked spending, more restrictions on individual liberties.No thanks.
Tuck, Fields, LA
I say good riddance to John McCain. My vote is for Ron Paul. I am a for real live breathing person not a spammer. This is not a fringe movement - listen to the voices of the voters - there are many out there are fully support Ron Paul for president.
David, Portland, Oregon
Stop McCain:
1. He may say he's against it , but voted for torture.
2. He voted with the Bush and the Republicans against habeas corpus.
3. He's been AWOL for over thirty percent of Senate votes while campaigning for President, second only to the man with a brain hemorrhage, and far more than number three on the list. Check the record. No taxation without representation.
4. He voted for the war in Iraq, twice.
5. He showed bad judgement for a would-be President by singing "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran".
Dave Gorman, Phoenix, AZ
McCain SHOULD pull out of the race BEFORE Autumn.
Opinionated, Charlotte, NC USA
Not McCain nor any of the other candidates will change the way America has been manipulated over the years - Stop wasting valuable time discussing them. You have Ron Paul and for the first time Americans have the opportunity to redeem themselves and really make a chance to change the world for the better..Don't let it slip by - you will NEVER have that again. Start appreciating what you have and ACT!
HM van As, Windhoek, Namibia
Completely agree with Larry about the end of the Republican Party. They shouldn't be able to call themselves the GOP, should be called the Confederate Party. I love how the 10% of redknecks that the majority of Americans have to kowtow to, lest they secede, manage to sum up everything in one or two words: 112 page Immigration Bill- Amnesty, Healthcare for 47million Americans without coverage- Socialized medicine.
Nathan, Melbourne,
RON PAUL. Enough said.
David, Mesa, AZ
John McCain has betrayed this nation by supporting this Amnesty legislation. By allowing 20,000,000 invaders to jump in line in front of real immigrants who tried to do it the right way, we would be rewarding illegal behavior, and therefore encouraging future invasions. It is destroying the middle class, pulling down wages, and turning our cities into 3rd-world slums.
FRED THOMPSON 2008!
Stanley Williams, Los Angeles, California / USA
Juan McCain is a hopeless sell out... just like all the other GOP hopefuls ... Except RON PAUL who stands for the REAL USA!
Gary Thomaosn, Shreveport, Louisiana
As for McCain being gone by September, all I can say is good riddance. The Republican party (to which I once belonged) is finished, and good riddance to that too.
People have forgotten how Hillary (our next president) got into office. She was running for the Senate in New York against Rudy Ghoulani, and losing by a mile. Suddenly, a month before the election, Ghoulani dropped out claiming to have cancer. Gee, it's funny I never hear about his cancer any more. The prospect of a Ghoulani/Hillary race for the presidency is so ludicrous I can't even stand to think about it. "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice - can't get fooled again."
The only chance we have is Ron Paul. Go Ron!
Larry Warner, Pahoa, Hawaii
John McCain may have once been a hero, but he is a traitor now as he joings with Kennedy, Bush, Graham and Kyl in trying to give the United States to Mexico and destroy the American way of life. Shame, shame on them all.
Rob, San Diego, California
John McCain probably won't win, but he won't go away. McCain is trying something risky and dangerous, but it just might work. If he continues to stand firm in the midst of battering by conservative base's political pundits, he might just win over independents and moderate republicans who aren't looking for someone to stand at the far right. It's important to realize that the people battering him are political pundits, who make up a small portion of any demographics.
Ron, Concord,
McCain has publicly spoken against harsh treament of prisoners in US custody. But what he endured in Vietnam is 100 times worse than what terrorist suspects have gone through. And I don't believe a Democrat will win the 2008 election because security is going to be a huge issue again and none of the Democrats are very strong on security.
Brian Tindell, Gilbert, Arizona/USA
McCain is a true American War Hero, but at 70 years old and supporting Bush's surge (and wanting even more troops), his best campaign days passed in 2000. He should have been the Republican nominee then; we somehow elected his lesser opponent whose popularity is now at 28% in the polls.
I'm a Democrat and avoided service in Vietnam in 1968 because I didn't want to lose my life in a ridiculous cause. McCain took the heat, even when he could have left the Prisoner of War Camp by himself during that terribly unpopular war, and he has my ultimate respect..
It would be gratifying to see him bow out soon with the American people's thanks and best wishes.
Dan Weinberg, St. Louis, Missouri
I'm from Arizona. I believe McCains day has come and gone.
He had a opportunity but Bush beat him out.
Now he is not generating the excitment that at one time he
could generate.
I am a life long Republican, and I say the next president
will be Hillary Clinton.
There is no Republican canidate that can beat her and I
predict further gaines in the House and Senate for the
Democrates.
Jerry Scroggin, Phoenix, Arizona/USA
Senator McCain could do us all a favor and retire now. Former media favorite has now found this support with the fickle press helping his downslide.
A Z Zimmerman, bethlehem, pa
The unfortunate thing is that people who want to run for office have to find some way of getting the funds to do so. There are many people who deserve the chance, but just don't have the money. I feel bad that even though we are a very vocal and very open country that we still havn't gotten out of what I consider a dark age of humanity for our country. We spy on each other we cheat lie and steal. Government should be able to make those who truly want to run for a position of government available by enabling those without funds to have a cache that is available on top of what they can earn. Give everyone a fair chance. Not just the rich!
brandon, san jose,
McCain is not as principled as you state. He did change his view on torturing prisoners. How he could agree to it after being tortured as a POW is beyond understanding. Nothing justifies it.
Abid Khan, London,
In my opinion the best person running at this time for the top spot is Hillary Clinton. Now once elected to office it might shine a different way, but right now I thinks she is the best running whether it be democrat or republican
Gary, Mobile, Alabama