Tom Baldwin in Washington
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US intelligence chiefs held a White House summit yesterday to discuss a classified report that concluded that al-Qaeda is now stronger than at any time since September 11, 2001.
Details of the five-page document, entitled “Al-Qaeda better positioned to strike the West”, were leaked amid growing signs that America is nervous about the prospect of another terrorist attack. There was particular concern that Europeans could be used to launch such operations.
Michael Chertoff, the Homeland Security Secretary, has spent days trying to play down comments that his “gut feeling” was that the US faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.
Yesterday a flight from Los Angeles to London was diverted to New York after a crew member became suspicious of one of the passengers, who had been seen bypassing security by travelling on an employee-only bus.
Mr Chertoff emphasised yesterday that “we don’t have any specific information about an imminent or near-term attack on the homeland”. However, The Times has been told that US and British intelligence services monitoring al-Qaeda networks have picked up “an increased level of chatter” in recent weeks.
The US is evaluating information gleaned from the recent thwarted terror plots in Britain, including that two of the suspects had applied to practise medicine in Philadelphia.
The intelligence report compiled by the National Counterterrorism Centre is believed to state that al-Qaeda is “showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States”. It adds that the network is “considerably operationally stronger than a year ago” and has “regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001”.
Fresh claims emerged yesterday that agents had been given two weeks to track down 700 people on an official FBI “worry list”. One group that they are known to be concerned about consists of radical British Muslims who may have made contact with al-Qaeda groups in Pakistan before travelling to the US on the visa-waiver programme.
Mr Chertoff said yesterday: “Something I’ve said repeatedly . . . is we have to watch Europe because the growth of home-grown terrorism over there creates a vulnerability for those who might use Europe as a platform into the United States.”
Intelligence analysts told Congress yesterday that al-Qaeda’s training activities, funding and communications have increased as the militant network has settled into new bases in remote areas of Pakistan. Al-Qaeda’s central command was “resurgent” in planning operations, John Kringen, head of the CIA’s intelligence directorate, said. “They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven in the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan. We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications.”
The White House is wary of over-emphasising the threat because that would undermine President Bush’s claim that “we’re winning – al-Qaeda is on the run”, when the US is having to admit only patchy progress in Iraq.
“There is a perception in the coverage [of the intelligence report] that al-Qaeda may be as strong today as they were prior to September 11,” Mr Bush said at a White House press conference yesterday. “That is simply not the case. The report will say ‘since September 11’. Because of the action we have taken, al-Qaeda is weaker today than they would have been. They are still a threat and they are still dangerous. That is why it is important we succeed in Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Mr Chertoff said: “The enemy continues to try to improve itself and rebuild itself. We’ve clearly done a lot of damage to al-Qaeda, we’ve killed or captured a lot of the senior leadership. They try to reconstitute themselves. They have found some places in Pakistan and other parts of the world where they can begin the process of training . . . But I do think the level of intent on the part of the enemy remains very high.”
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Al-Qaeda corporate, so to speak, is unlikely to attack continental USA for two major reasons.
First, the level of attack would have to be greater than the destruction of the Twin Towers, in order to justify the time and expense to mount such an operation; moreover, the next attack must generate more fear and chaos. The only effective scenario is the use of a nuclear bomb, something that al-Qaeda probably cannot deliver.
Second, al-Qaeda's goal of bleeding America white by protracted guerrilla warfare is succeeding in Iraq and Afghanistan. While that continues, there is no incentive to move assets to strike at USA.
The only realistic danger are attempts by small cells linked to al-Qaeda, but working autonomously. They are, at best, amateur and at worst simply irritants to security forces in USA. Their real benefit to al-Qaeda is the constant fear generated and maintained all across USA.
Roger Burke, Brisbane, Australia
We are living in the last days as prophesied in the Bible. Bush seeks total control of the world, yet it will be taking away from us... Believe in Jesus Christ for the forgiveness of sins, we are entering very difficult times, and apart from Him, it will be impossible to live through what will be taking place in the next 10 years.
jess, pittsboro, nc
Al Queda declared war on America (and the West) - NOT the other way around.
Steve Moran, London,
I guess, Andrew Milner, you must not have been listening - there is no war against Muslims...only terrorists...the majority of which right now are Muslims. A HUGE difference. The others in our world are Tamil Tigers, but they're fighting for a 'nationalistic cause', not a religious one.
roger, E Wenatchee, WA, USA
It is an outrage that bin Laden and Zawahiri are still at liberty, almost six years since 9/11, despite the billions spent on the futile wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US should attack al-Qaeda immediately wherever they are, to fail to do so is just to drag out the misery of war.
carter, london uk, uk
I thought the war in Iraq was President Bush's brain storm to defeat al-Qaeda, and prevent them from coming over here?
Since that is now no longer a valid point, what other BS will he come up with to justify this insanity?
Is he the fool, or are we, for not having impeached him?
Mike Hermsen, Omaha, Nebraska/U.S.A.
However cynical it may sound, it is getting close to budget time in Washington, and exaggerated threats of impending doom have long been an infallible mehtod of increasing the finances and thus the power of the military, intelligence and enforcement communities, particularly in the US.
David Wilson, Territet, Switzerland
Once again Chicken Little is brought out of his "secret bunker" to run down the street screaming "Al-Qaeda is coming" in hopes that the fear of another attack will bring the disidants into line. We've been fooled to many times by this tactic to believe the White House when they cry out for us to get behind their failed policies.
Lawton Maner, Williamsburg, Va, USA
From BBC web-site... "Scientists say they have seen one of the fastest evolutionary changes ever observed in a species of butterfly.... The tropical blue moon butterfly has developed a way of fighting back against parasitic bacteria. Six years ago, males accounted for just 1% of the blue moon population on two islands in the South Pacific. But by last year, the butterflies had evolved a gene to keep the bacteria in check and male numbers were up to about 40% of the population.... We're witnessing an evolutionary arms race between the parasite and the host. This strengthens the view that parasites can be major drivers in evolution" Lessons in there in confronting terrorism. You have to a) anallyse and dismantle the arguments and beliefs that inspire people who resort to terror and b) prove your way of life is better c)I'm sure there are other lessons, but they all point away from a military solution.
Pat, Limerick, Ireland
We have got shot of Mr Blair; now is your chance Gordon to extricate us once and for all from these dangerous and going nowhere conflicts.
Mr Bush - time you went too. 6 Years on from 9/11 and we have made the situation even worse.
edwardingle, chesham,
Forget about bearded mystics in Afghanistan, Europe faces a more subtle but deadlier threat. It's in the police,immigration service, security servics, passport office, mail service, schools, airport authorities and health service. It's a wheel within a wheel, It's white collar and it's very real.
John Gibbons, Galway, Ireland
Andrew Milner , you seem remarkably ill-informed. At no stage has either leader decalred "war on 1.4 billion muslims". On the contrary I have seen many statements clearly identifying the target as the terrorost threat - or are you of the misguided belief that alll muslims must be terrorists?
ian, london, uk
How has fueling further extremism in Iraq made al-Qaeda weaker, Mr Bush??
Chris Jones, Geneva, Switzerland
maybe this white house summit was held as a warning for those that request the troops from iraq to be brought home.this technique has been used before and it had results.bush continues his policy in spite of the congress,of the american people and of the world.he's just a puppet in the hands of those that have financial interests for the war to continue.
alinutzu, herzog,
If they see more money, more training and more communications, why don't they attack the training bases, freeze the money and jam the communications ? Am I missing something. I mean, while this report is more acceptable to me than Chertoff's "gut feeling" I can't connect the dots between what we know and what we do about it. I guess I'm about as stupid as I think. Sorry.
philip tonkovich, palm springs, USA California
Declaring war on 1.4 billion Muslims worldwide, wasn't in retrospect, the smartest of moves. George, Tony, could we just have a word?
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Kanagawa
So basically, The Bush Administration has failed to have any appreciable effect on Al Qaeda despite 6 years of military action, invading Afganistan, invading Iraq, abridging American civil rights, imprisoning hundreds of "detainees" in Cuba, and the expenditure of over $600 Billion dollars...
Thanks, George!
Mission Accomplished!
John Moore, Los Angeles, CA
Quick, We got a report in the US from a commander bush DIDN'T replace for saying we were losing, SAYING we are losing.... I know! Give them some fear, Give them a LOT of fear......
Andrew, Lisburn,
We must ask what the terrorist want from us and what we are willing to give them.
The view here is that the terrorists want ,from each of us, at the least, our home, our car and our savings. The choice is our: give this (or what it represents) to them or make them fight for it.
Cordially,
John Little
John Little, Louisville, USA/Kentucky