Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv
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THE American secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, is expected to join Tony Blair’s drive for a settlement in the Middle East when it begins with an intensive round of diplomacy later this month.
Rice and Blair will meet in Lisbon this week to plan a coordinated series of initiatives designed to revive the peace process.
The secretary of state’s involvement represents a boost for Blair, the newly appointed special envoy of the quartet group made up of America, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations, in his efforts to bolster the Palestinian Authority and reopen talks with Israel.
It also indicates President George W Bush’s determination that Blair should be given every chance of succeeding in his post.
Blair, who will visit Israel and the West Bank, intends to isolate Hamas, the Islamist faction that won control of Gaza last month. “He’ll leave Hamas to stew in their own juices in Gaza,” said one source, who predicted that Blair would emphasise to Israel and moderate Palestinians that any failure to take risks and progress now will be exploited by fundamentalists.
Blair will use Hamas’s victory in Gaza to persuade Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate Palestinian leader, and Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, to ratchet up the low-key talks that have been taking place only intermittently.
Blair wants to visit several Arab capitals, including Riyadh, Cairo and Amman, where King Abdullah of Jordan is being prepared to play a role behind the scenes.
Blair’s initial negotiations will be in Ramallah with Abbas and his American-educated prime minister, Salim Fayad, and with Olmert in Jerusalem.
Last week Olmert secretly met the king in Amman to discuss tactics.
Since he left No 10 Blair has been busy recruiting a small team to assist him in the talks and arranging EU funding for the West Bank.
His chief of staff will be Nick Banner, who worked with Sir Nigel Sheinwald, Blair’s foreign policy adviser in Downing Street. Blair is also expected to rely upon Jonathan Powell, his former chief of staff, as a part-time adviser.
The former prime minister will try to help Abbas strengthen his position on the West Bank with a combination of financial aid, practical assistance and diplomatic recognition. Aid to Hamas in Gaza will be strictly limited to humanitarian supplies and its militant leadership will be marginalised.
Senior Palestinian sources say that Blair’s arrival as envoy is being welcomed by Abbas, who is worried that the bilateral talks he is conducting with Olmert may grind to a halt because of the Israeli leader’s political weakness. The two men are expected to meet for further talks tomorrow.
The Palestinian leadership will ask Blair to push for negotiations within the framework of a 2002 Arab initiative, calling for comprehensive peace with Israel in return for Israel’s withdrawal from the territories conquered in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
The many barriers to such an agreement, which include the future of Jerusalem, the exact location of borders and the future of the Palestinian refugees, could, they argue, be put off for discussion until later.
Within Israel there are doubts about Olmert’s strategy. “Olmert is planning to drag his feet and deal with the Palestinian issue as crisis management, rather than as a crisis that should be solved,” said a political adviser.
Ehud Barak, Olmert’s newly appointed defence minister, is understood to have a different perspective. Barak, who as prime minister seven years ago offered the late Yasser Arafat the return of much of the West Bank, is believed to be considering urging radical measures.
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