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Mitt Romney, the Mormon former Governor of Massachusetts, yesterday cemented his place as a serious contender for the Republican presidential nomination after winning an Iowa straw poll of White House hopefuls.
Although his three main Republican rivals skipped the informal poll, the size of Mr Romney’s victory underscored the depth of his campaign war chest, his organisational strength and the lead that he enjoys in the key state of Iowa, whose caucuses open his party’s nominating race in January.
The Republican contest remains wide open. Yet with Mr Romney also leading his rivals in New Hampshire, scene of the first primary, yesterday’s victory bolstered his aim of vaulting himself to the nomination by winning those first two states – the classic “early momentum” strategy pioneered by Jimmy Carter in 1976. The straw poll, held in the town of Ames, is regarded as an early test of a candidate’s strength. It was won in 1999 by the Texas Governor, George W. Bush, who went on to win the nomination.
Mr Romney’s victory – he received 32 per cent of votes, nearly twice as much as his nearest competitor – holds less significance than previous Ames polls because Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson, the rest of the Republican top tier, all failed to take part.
Mr Giuliani is focusing less on Iowa and New Hampshire and more on a multistate strategy to win the nomination. Mr McCain argued that the millions of dollars and enormous time Mr Romney has lavished on Iowa made a Romney victory inevitable. Mr Thompson, the former senator and Law and Order star, has not yet entered the race, but is expected to next month. But Mr Romney said that it was a significant win. “If they thought they could have won, they would have been here,” he told Fox News. “If you can’t compete in Iowa in August, how are you going to compete in January?”
In national polls Mr Thompson is second behind Mr Giuliani. Mr McCain, despite losing his entire senior campaign staff last month and with a near-bankrupt campaign, still cannot be written off. He continues to receive about 16 per cent support, compared with Mr Giuliani on 28 per cent and Mr Thompson on 18 per cent.
Mr Romney still trails in national polls with about 10 per cent. But he has raised more than $40 million (£20 million) this year. His victory in Iowa also suggests that he is winning over conservatives, a key constituency.
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