THE US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, is resisting pressure from Robert Gates, the defence secretary, and other generals to begin a symbolic withdrawal of American troops from Iraq before Christmas.

President George W Bush is also being urged by some political advisers to bring home a brigade of between 3,500 and 4,500 troops as early as November to appease war-weary Republican congressmen, and to satisfy generals who are concerned about overstretching the American forces.

Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the American ambassador in Iraq, are to deliver their long-awaited assessment of the troop surge to Bush and Congress tomorrow.

It will praise the military for security gains but administration officials say Petraeus wants to return to Congress in March to buy time for the political situation in Baghdad to improve.

General Petraeus: The Times interview

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BACKGROUND

• Comment: General Petraeus polarises Washington

• Q&A: General Petraeus and the surge

• Petraeus dresses right for critical moment

• America can’t just walk away, US general insists

• New US general will copy British 'softly-softly' style

Iraq timeline: five years of conflict

From accusations that the weapons of mass destruction dossier had been sexed-up to withdrawal of British troops from Basra

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As foreshadowed in a letter from Petraeus to his troops, the US commander believes the surge has helped to “create the space” for national reconciliation in Iraq, but the government of Nouri al-Maliki has wasted that opportunity. There is speculation in Washington that Petraeus’s criticism may trigger Maliki’s ousting as prime minister.

Petraeus has told Bush he might be able to withdraw a brigade in January, but is reluctant to move the timetable forward.

He is under pressure in the opposite direction from General Raymond Odierno, his number two in Iraq, who would like the surge to remain at full strength until April, when troop rotations mean that a drawdown is certain to occur.

A senior defence source said Odierno did not want to see progress on the ground squandered, whereas Petraeus knew “he has to please several political masters”. The January date was arrived at by “splitting the difference”.

The date is being set in Washington rather than Baghdad after pressure from Senator John Warner, the former Republican chairman of the Senate armed services committee, who returned from a visit to Iraq last month.

Warner said that a small number of troops should be brought home by Christmas to emphasise that America’s commitment was not indefinite.

More than 3,700 US troops have died in Iraq and the war has already cost about $400 billion.

The senator’s remarks are believed to have been approved in advance by Gates as a means of nudging Congress towards a bipartisan consensus on a gradual withdrawal. The hope is to draw down a brigade every 30 or 45 days until US forces reach presurge levels, but Petraeus maintains the timing should relate to conditions on the ground.

Retired General Jack Keane, one of the architects of the surge, said: “We’ll go back to presurge levels in April whether we’re succeeding or failing.” He expressed confidence, however, that “we’ll do it because we can do it”.

Petraeus is to present a series colour-coded maps of Baghdad to Congress, showing how violent “hot-spots” marked in red have given way to largely peaceful green areas with some yellow spots denoting the need for continued vigilance by US forces.

In his letter to troops, Petraeus said the situation in Iraq was “exceedingly complex”. There was “progress in the security arena”, but it was uneven.

Petraeus claimed the number of attacks across Iraq had dropped in the last week of August to a level not seen in more than a year.

“You have killed or captured dozens of leaders and thousands of members of Al-Qaeda-Iraq and extremist militia elements,” he wrote, “and taken many of Al-Qaeda’s former sanctuaries away from them.”

While Iraqi forces remained a “work in progress”, he noted that they were “very much in the fight”.

Petraeus is hoping for time to build momentum in Anbar province and Baghdad for greater local reconciliation – “an emerging area of considerable importance” – and the establishment of “provisional units of neighbourhood security volunteers”.

Critics claim the policy is creating local warlords, encouraging the defacto partition of Iraq into Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish areas, and building up sectarian militias.

A powerful trio, made up of General Peter Pace, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Admiral William Fallon, the head of Central Command, and General William Casey, the chief of the army, are concerned that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are overstretching the American armed forces.

They believe Petraeus and Odierno naturally want to keep every last soldier they can for the surge, but fear they are losing sight of the need for overall military readiness in the event of an unexpected international crisis.

Frederick Kagan, a military historian at the American Enterprise Institute, said: “If we were to draw down our forces dramatically in a short period of time, the Iraqi security forces would collapse.”

James Miller of the Center for a New American Security in Washington and author of a report on a phased withdrawal, said: “If the surge is working and transition is possible, it should be done sooner rather than later. Otherwise it is as if we are continuing to drive in first gear.”

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