Eric Margolis
Star musicians and your favourite Times writers at the Albert Hall
An invitation to visit "Checkmate", the US air force's most important and secretive strategic planning group, was an offer that, as a veteran military analyst, I could not refuse. A few weeks earlier, I had written that the air force was the supreme instrument of America's global power, likening it to the 19th-century Royal Navy. Were it not for the USAF's 24-hour close air support, I said, US and British ground forces in Iraq and Afghanistan would be unable to defend their long, vulnerable supply lines, and might even face defeats like those suffered by imperial Britain at Kut and in the Afghan wars.
My column ricocheted around the Pentagon's top brass and received a positive response from General Michael Moseley, the air force chief of staff. I was invited to the Pentagon to brief Checkmate's senior officers on strategic developments in my speciality areas, the Middle East and South Asia. Soon after, I was in the Pentagon's 17.1-mile maze of corridors amid 23,000 military and civilian personnel. The Checkmate group planned the devastating 1991 air force attack on Iraq, and the 2003 strike aimed at decapitating Iraq's leadership. Its austere, high security offices are deep in the Pentagon's prestigious inner rings, heavily shielded against electronic penetration. As I walked through each new section of Checkmate's headquarters, a major preceded me, warning fellow officers to cover secret documents on their desks, and ensuring I did not stray into forbidden areas. I wryly recalled that security had not been this tight when I was the first western journalist invited into the Lubyanka, the KGB's headquarters. Checkmate's staff work close to the Pentagon's Mount Olympus, the offices of the joints chiefs of staff. Brigadier General Lawrence Stutzriem, Checkmate's brainy commander, reports directly to Moseley, who advises the president. In the Pentagon, reporting line can be more important than rank. Unlike other military bureaucracies, Checkmate has the ear of the gods of war. Its 20-30 young, high-energy officers have advanced academic and military degrees and are on the fast track to the top of America's most forward-thinking, smartest service.
While the army and navy plan to re-fight America's last wars, Checkmate is busy planning the next ones. Checkmate's mission is to "think out of the box", develop new, often unorthodox ideas, outflank bureaucracy and ensure they remain "air warriors". Checkmate officers were eager to tell me about the fast-advancing decrepitude of their air fleet, whose average age is nearing 25 years. The air force has been in almost non-stop combat for 17 years. Many aircraft, such as the B-52 heavy bombers, America's version of the Royal Navy's Dreadnoughts, and tanker aircraft, are older than the pilots flying them.
I asked when the Bush administration's widely expected air war against Iran would begin. This was not a subject my hosts cared to discuss. Smiles vanished. Dr Lani Kass, Checkmate's formidable senior civilian official, a former Israeli military officer who had somehow morphed into a senior Pentagon advisor, dismissed my question, insisting no decision to attack Iran had been made. She called a possible air war "unlikely". But I was ready to bet plans to blitz Iran were being drawn up in an adjoining office. One could feel a buzz of excitement among Checkmate's hard-eyed officers who wore combat flight suits and tensed up every time I mentioned Iran. Pentagon sources say the air force has selected 3,000-4,000 targets in Iran, and that some US and British special forces are already operating there. However, Washington sources also report strong opposition to war against Iran among the Pentagon's brass, and high-ranking officials in the CIA, Treasury, and state department. They view war with Iran as unpredictable, unwise and dangerous at a time when US ground and air forces are stretched to breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan. "We can defeat Iran," insisted Dr Kass, `but are Americans willing to pay the price?"
So far, apparently not. Congress has not been renewing the air force's fleet and will baulk at the cost of a new war. Ironically, the air force is victim of its own success. The last time US ground forces came under enemy air attack was in 1953 during the Korean war. America's air force fights and operates so efficiently the public and congress do not understand the enormous efforts and cost of keeping American domination of most of the world's skies, space and cyberspace. Today, the air force has no real enemies left because it shot them all down. If the balloon goes up, Checkmate are likely to target the initial waves of devastating strikes against either Iran, or, as I was told, "the next enemy of America that sticks up its head".
Copyright Eric Margolis
Eric Margolis is contributing foreign editor of Sun National Media, Canada
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Eddy of Ontario's prediction of an attack on Iran in early 2008 has a disturbing ring to it; and Mary of Persia is probably right, too. Ann of New York wonders how Israel has hi-jacked America; but Britain was hijacked first, when the Rothschild family manipulated the battle of Waterloo, in 1815. King Edward V was under their control in 1900, when they came for South African gold, in the Anglo-Boer war. Was it God, or chance, that placed Israel so close to the oil? It is time that Israel turned away from the Golden Calf; and not for the first time in its history.
H. Grattan, Johannesburg, South Africa
"The last time US ground forces came under enemy air attack was in 1953 during the Korean war."
That's not correct. The last air attack to the US was in 2001, 11th September.
F15 VS B737.
who won?
Riccardo, Treviso, Italia
Riccardo, Treviso, Italia
what does an empire do when it doesnt have anyone to defend itself against?
simply creates new opportuniteis to engage in warfare..
it would be a good thing if the real notion was to prevent more violence but i dont believe that is true with this empire
steve smtih, valencia, ca
Steve,
Who is acting belligerently? perhaps it's the US with their force surrounding Iran (Iraq to the east, Afghanistan to the west, and the US Navy in the Persian gulf in the south and finally good old Israel the real terrorist state in the Middle East to the North)
No wonder Iran is arming itself.
Look at your own nutty policy which is driving your economy off the cliff (have you checked the $US dollar lately?)
Jean BonHacher, Ottawa, Canada
How shocking it would be if the US spent 500 billion on peaceful humanitarian measures! But they use their wealth and much vaunted education to exactly opposite purposes.
Phil, Hong Kong,
Steve,
Its clear that this is all about Israel and protecting its interests. Why is it that Israel has more than 2,000 neuclear heads and Iran is not allowed to even think about Uranium?? Why does the Americans think Israelis are saints and Iranians are lunatics!!?
Paul Rene, Tampa, FL
The United States is afraid of nuclear Iran because we have been pushing people in the Middle East around for so long.
We feel that we can tell people there what to do, how to live their lives, and whether or not they should support "Israel" as an expansionist and racist state.
The people in the Middle East are tired, tired, and angry at the United States. What is the difference between Iran and Saudi Arabia? Absolutely none, except that that Saudis are "friends" with us because we support their form of dictatorship.
I live in the United States, and I believe that our turn on the World stage is coming to an end, that is, if we do not destroy the World first. Our pathetic grab of Iraqi oil, and now our plans to grab the Iranian oil, are meant to forstall the advent of the Chinese and Indian economies. We are in the Middle East for one reason, and one reason only - oil.
The Russians, Chinese, Indians, and Europeans all know this.
Hopefully, electric cars are coming.
Bob, San Diego, Formerly Free US
Poor America, believing solely in brute force got you here, keep going you are doing well for humanity digging your own grave. Ignorance is a blessing
James, London, uk
Is this the same Air Force who "officially" made colossal mistakes -- a "bent spear" -- in the arming and transport of nuclear-tipped warheads on B52s flying over continental USA in violation of treaties (not to mention common sense and nuclear safeguards and protocols in place for 40 years...)
This Air Force, the "supreme instrument" of America's power?
Lee Franklin, Martinsburg, WV, US
Really Eric? We have no air enemies?
Russia is launching DAILY dry runs of nuclear attack bombers at the USA, UK, Norway and Canada ... even an 8000 mile air refueled blitz.
China shot down a satellite with a ground based laser.
Much of Tesla's work has made it's way to America's enemies.
Eric, I like you and your articles ... but you have to wake up to the threat.
And why is this nice lady, an Israeli, in charge of such a program? Nothing against her ... I've met some wonderful and even gorgeous Israeli women ... how did she get in that position?
Jean-Claude Anthony, St Louis, Mo., USA
"My hope is that Americans will through the warmongering Republicans out and elect Ron Paul instead.
masmanz, Boston, MA"
That's right! The problem is *the wrong republican*!
duus, Washington, DC
Steve,
I think the real issue will be what if the Iranian people rise up against the Mullah's and chose a democratic government who still rejects the edicts of the "Benign Global Hegemon", aka the USA? Will democracy be enough to satify people like yourself or will complete capitulation to the Global economy (see privatizing the Oil sector to western business interests)and the Dollar be required? Where is the freedom/sovereignty in that? What truly rules? Liberty or Economy?
Sam Lowry, Portland , USA
This is very telling: "...Dr Lani Kass, Checkmate's formidable senior civilian official, a former Israeli military officer who had somehow morphed into a senior Pentagon advisor..."
How did Israel hijack the USA? Because that is what has happened.
Ann Beeder, New York, NY
Of course, these military men are traitors to their country because they have allowed the inside job of 9/11 to go unchecked.
What happened to defending your country from enemies foreign and domestic? Have they forgotten their oaths? or are they just dupes for another country or cartel of bankers? Maybe that ex-Israeli soldier who is now holding a key position in the Pentagon can give you some insight as to what is really going on.
Susan Rodriguez, Fresno, California
The military is constantly creating and reviewing plans "for the next war". It's only prudent. Just because I review my fire insurance needs for my house doesn't mean I plan on setting it ablaze.
It is also natural for the military to reach out to members of the press who are sympathetic to the top brass agenda.
The amount of self-promotion and self -congratulation by the author in this article made me smile.
alice, Salado, US/ Texas
To bad the Pentagon, disclose information to any one on military plans..................... is not to the media (the worst USA enemy) they have not even let knock the door of the Pentagon.....
As Eric Margolis to knock lnock !! at Iran or any enemy military top group... to see if he come with a wonderful history like this one.... The only hope I have is that the top mans he interview, mislead him and they have already, Chek-Mate under the slive.
Iosef ben Abraham, Miami, USA
A secret strategic paper written in 1985 by Secretary of State Robert McFarlane made clear Iran's role. Iran is the barrier to US control of the entire Caspian Sea oil and gas areas. A copy is on my office shelf.
And oil and the security of "friendly" states in the area are essential to US national interests. (Bush senior's opening line of the National Security Directive which opened the 1991 invasion of Iraq. Have a copy of that too.
So how about really thinking outside the box? Why does American always have to have an enemy? Because the American people are so ill-informed about the world that they need to feel protected. The witch trial of the President of Iran by so called educated staff and students at Columbia university on 24th September revealed it all. Americans believe they own the world, and all who oppose will be captured or killed. If you don't believe that, then count the dead of war over the last fifty years and ask who killed them.
Peter Biddulph, Lickey, Worcestershire, England
Steve Gregg,
Iran has never threatened Israel with nuclear attacks it is just one of the many lies war-mongers make against Iran. Ahmedinejad has never denied holocaust, he just says that Palestinians were not responsible for it and they should not have to pay the price. My hope is that Americans will through the warmongering Republicans out and elect Ron Paul instead.
masmanz, Boston, MA
Sadly, the United States and her allies are already fighting Iran - in Iraq and Afganistan. Maybe the militarey would not be spread so thinly if it could concentrate its efforts on the source of the opposition. Truly, over throw of the existing aggressive regime in Iran would be preferable, but that seems unlikely. In all probability, the West will find itself in an armed conflict with Iran. Perhaps it will be less destructive sooner than later.
Barry Jacobs, M. D., Carrollton, exas, U. S. A.
The presence of Dr Lani Kass from Israel amid "checkmate" officers indicates that an attack on Iran will take place during the first and second months of 2008 short of a miracle.
The United States will not allow Iran to become the dominant power in the Middle East.
An attack on Syria and Hizballah by Israel [U.S.] will precede bombing of Iranian targets.
Eddy, Mississauga, Ontario
Mr Margolis makes some very cogent points, none more so than comparing the Airforce to the Dreadnaughts of the British navy, starting with the ubiquitous '74's which midwifed the birth of the "Empire upon which the sun never sets".
However, he rightly points to the cost. It took less than a decade of being broke to destroy the vaunted Soviet military. Already, our long range capabilities
are compromised by age, and condition. Oh, you can maintain a B-52, or a tanker, in excellent condition. You can do the same with a vintage automobile, but the costs continually rise. Also, right this moment, as we speak, the Russians, never slouches in the Research and Developement world..(remember the space race?), have created the best aircraft in the world...though it will be another decade before her Air arm can reach the personnel professionalism of the US, or the old Soviets. They will do so. Do not doubt it. It is, after all, ALL ABOUT MONEY. And we are broke. Great article!
Max Cadenhead, Oakland Park, Florida, USA
Mary,
I doubt America will attack Iran but there is a small chance that Iran will behave so belligerently that war will be the last resort left. Therefore, it is prudent to prepare for the contingency.
Perhaps, Mary, you should be more worried about your own president threatening Israel with a nuclear attack in public speeches and by doing so, implicitly threatening Iran's Muslim neighbors as well. When Ahmadinejad denies a Holocaust happenned among other inanities, it makes Americans think that Iranian nukes will be commanded by a truculent buffoon. All that money spent on nuclear weapons would be better spent on building up Iranian infrastructure.
My hope is that the Iranians will overthrow their own government and make a better, democratic one by throwing the mullahs out. It's pretty obvious the mullahs are driving your economy off a cliff with their nutty and impractical policies. I wish you good luck with that project.
Steve Gregg, Washington, DC, USA
Its a littel like the game of "risk". If you have played it you know the most difficult real estate to defend is where we live.
Hence, we need to be thinking ahead of everyone else on the planet. If we don't then we better start taking these foreign language commercials seriously.
Jerry Kinder, Phoenix, Arizona
The US airforce can have the brightest minds on earth (which is a waste of resources) think out of the box until they can't find their way back, but ultimately planes are lousy regime-changers and worthless conquerors. All they basically do, besides making a big mess, is kill people indiscriminately in a "smart" or a "dumb" way from a relatively safe distance. And killing people indiscriminately, either smart or dumb isn't much of a solution to anything. And as you can witness now it adds to the problem actually.
Oebe, Veendam, Netherlands
Love the American press.The enemy reads it every day,
for updating there intelligence!
anthony, venice,
There is proverb in persian language which say raising of big stone means they do not bit .But what bad news will come and how many casualityies will outward if USA attack Iran .
think twice before attack becouse after that it will be so late to endless war around the world and inside the Us may be ! so whole Us good citizen beware of folish act of your policy maker sach as chaney an so .
mary , teh, persia