Sarah Baxter
2 for 1 tickets to Singin' In The Rain, this coming Monday. Book now
In the white desert sands of New Mexico, close to where the first atom bomb was detonated, America’s biggest conventional weapon was tested last spring. A 30,000lb massive ordnance penetrator, known as the Big Blu or the Mother of All Bombs, was placed inside a tunnel to test its explosive power against hard, deeply buried bunkers and tunnels designed to conceal weapons of mass destruction.
The monster bunker-buster was so heavy, it could not fly. But the blast was a huge success, rippling through the tunnels and destroying everything in its wake.
Today the Big Blu might as well have “Tehran” written on its side in the same way that the Iranians love to parade missiles marked “Tel Aviv”. Tucked away in an emergency defence spending request, the US air force has just asked Congress for $88m to equip B2 stealth bombers, the black warriors of the skies, with racks strong enough carry the huge bomb.
This was no casual request, but an “urgent operational need from theatre commanders”, according to the air force. Even a Republican congressman fretted: “This whole thing . . . reminds me of the movie Dr Strangelove.”
In the 1964 film starring Peter Sellers, a demented general launches a unilateral strike on the Soviet Union, convinced it is already stealthily undermining America. Global nuclear destruction ensues. THE end result might not be so grave, but are America’s B2s being readied for an attack on Iran? It would fit in neatly with President George W Bush’s recent warning about the dangers of a third world war, should Iran be allowed to obtain the “knowledge to make a nuclear weapon”.
Iran-watchers noted with interest the use of the word knowledge. Bush, it appeared, was determined to act well before the mullahs got anywhere close to an actual bomb.
Dick Cheney, the vice-president, piled on the pressure last week, calling Iran a “growing obstacle to peace in the Middle East” and vowing “serious consequences” if it persisted with its nuclear programme.
A senior Pentagon source, who remembers the growing drumbeat of war before the invasion of Iraq, believes Bush is preparing for military action before he leaves office in January 2009. “This is for real now. I think he is signalling he is going to do it,” he said.
But nobody is sure whether the president really will add a risky third front to the Afghan and Iraq wars that are already overstretching US forces.
“If you’d asked me a year ago, I’d have said yes,” said John Bolton, the hawkish former US ambassador to the United Nations. “Today I’d say, I don’t know.”
It is clear the military machinery for an attack is being put into place. More than 1,000 targets have been identified for a potential air blitz against Iran’s nuclear facilities, air defences and Revolutionary Guard bases, despite claims last week by Robert Gates, the defence secretary, that the planning was merely “routine”.
As for the urgent request for the Big Blu, it has “bombing Iran written all over it”, said John Pike, a defence expert at the think tank Globalsecurity.org.
Iran’s uranium enrichment halls at Natanz, about 150 miles south of Tehran, are buried 75ft deep, while there are believed to be nuclear sites buried under granite mountains in tunnels that are like the long roots of a tree. It is not enough to drop a smart bomb down a shaft – it has to have the capacity to blast sideways with massive force.
The question of timing is becoming ever more urgent, now that Bush has fewer than 15 months left in the White House. Confidants say he is determined not to bequeath the problem of a nuclear Iran to his successor and regards it as an important part of his legacy.
Although intelligence estimates vary as to when Iran will achieve the know-how for a bomb, the French government recently received a memo from the International Atomic Energy Agency stating that Iran will be ready to run almost 3,000 cen-trifuges in 18 cascades by the end of this month, in defiance of a UN ban on uranium enrichment. It is enough, say scientists, to produce one bomb within a year. If that is the case, the hour for action may soon be upon us.
Against this backdrop, the US public is growing acclimatised to the threat of war. As the saying in Washington goes, “Iran is the new Iraq”. While controversy over the Iraq war is fading in intensity – even for the 2008 presidential candidates – the problem of a nuclear Iran is rapidly moving up the political agenda.
David Miliband, the foreign secretary, was in Washington last week for talks with Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state. Shortly before heading back to Britain, he declared that, for the first time, Iraq was not “the top item” for discussion, a sign of the growing stability and success of the American troop surge.
According to a spokesman for US armed forces chiefs, there was not a single military casualty last week – Iraqi or American – in Anbar, formerly a hotbed of trouble.
In so far as Iraq is presented as a threat to international security, it is increasingly in connection to growing friction with Iran.
General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, stated baldly last month that America was already fighting a proxy war with Iran, which is arming the sectarian militias and smuggling in weapons and sophisticated roadside bombs designed to kill American soldiers.
The US is building a forward base in Iraq called Combat Outpost Shocker just five miles from the Iranian border as a sign of its new aggressiveness against interference from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime.
Bush’s decision to approve tough unilateral sanctions against Iran last week and to designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organisation and proliferator of weapons of mass destruction marks a further escalation of the war of words and deeds with Tehran.
After Miliband was briefed on the move during his visit to Washington, Gordon Brown batted for America in the House of Commons by promising Britain would lead the effort to secure a tough sanctions resolution against Iran at the United Nations security council.
All the evidence appears to point in the direction of increasing diplomatic and military hostilities. As Robert Byrd, a Democrat member of the Senate armed services committee, put it, the action by the Bush administration “not only echoes the chest-pounding rhetoric” which preceded the invasion of Iraq in 2003, “but also raises the spectre of an intensified effort to make the case for an invasion of Iran”.
Yet a Downing street source said: “They are not at that stage.”
Could it all be an elaborate game of “chicken”, using the growing threat of an attack to force Ahmadinejad to back down on his nuclear ambitions?
Nick Burns, the State Department’s leading negotiator on Iran, said last week the imposition of new sanctions merely “supports the diplomacy and in no way, shape or form does it anticipate the use of force”.
Even the urgent request to fund the Big Blu may not be all that it seems. “We could be trying to turn up the volume to get the ayatollahs to pay attention,” said Pike. “It could be part of the diplomatic pressure to see if the Iranians will move voluntarily.”
If Ahmadinejad is to be believed, nothing will deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear programme, which he claims is for peaceful energy purposes while at the same time boasting that Israel will one day be wiped off the map.
In a surprise announcement, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, was replaced by Saeed Jalili, a hardliner close to the president. Confusingly, however, Larijani still appeared to lead last week’s talks in Rome with Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief.
“I found the same Larijani and he had the role of chief negotiator,” said Solana. It suggests a power struggle over the extent to which Iran can continue to thwart the West.
Until recently, most Iranians discounted the threat of an attack on the grounds that America had its hands full with Iraq, but their mood is altering. At gatherings in Tehran, the talk has turned to possible American bombing raids.
Ali Nazeri, 35, a shopkeeper in the Iranian capital, said: “The government says the Americans cannot do a damn thing, but they are also changing the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard and saying they will fire thousands of missiles at US targets within the first few minutes of a confrontation. I think it is a matter of putting two and two together and coming to the conclusion that war is very likely.”
In the wider Middle East, the conviction is growing that America is determined to launch an attack. Some well-placed Israeli and Palestinian sources suggest that next month’s Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, near Washington, could be the catapult for an ambitious plan to establish a Palestinian state and disarm Iran.
“The idea is to tie Palestine to Iran,” said an Israeli Middle East expert. “Israel will be obliged to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state within a short and firm timetable and the US administration will guarantee that the Iranian nuclear issue will be solved before Bush leaves office.”
If Israel is prepared to move towards the creation of a Palestinian state, the hope is that Sunni Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt will not protest too loudly about a US attack on Iran, given their own private fears about the impact of a nuclear Iran on the balance of power in the region.
As with the Israeli bombing of a suspected Syrian nuclear site last month, they could simply stay mum. In theory, Bush could thus broker a settlement in the Middle East, while denuclearising Iran – a tempting legacy.
But such a “grand bargain” is far too delicate and complicated to be attempted, according to Washington sources, even if it provides a subtext for some of the negotiations. “We’re not smart enough for that,” Bolton said bluntly.
The most convincing explanation for the sabre-rattling is that Bush has embarked on a course of action that may lead to war, but there are many stages to pass, including the imposition of tougher sanctions, before he concludes a military strike on Iran is worth the risk. As his generals have warned, it could unleash a new round of terrorism, destabilise Iraq and send oil prices way above the $100-a-barrel mark.
If muscular diplomacy can stop the mullahs, so much the better. If it cannot, Bush may decide to launch an attack as one of the final acts of his presidency. The preparations are under way, but only he knows if he will make that fateful decision.
Additional reporting: Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv
The pros and cons of launching an attack on Iran
The arguments for
- Protects Israel from a potential nuclear holocaust. President Ahmadinejad has stated that Israel will be wiped off the map
- Reduces the risk to the West of a “dirty” bomb in big cities. Iran is a sponsor of terrorist groups such as Hezbollah
- Forestalls the development of Iranian long-range nuclear missiles aimed at Europe and America
- Prevents Iran from intimidating or attacking its Sunni Arab neighbours
- Creates the space for potential regime change and installation of a pro-western government in Tehran
The arguments against
- Sets back Iran’s nuclear ambitions by only a few years. US intelligence has not mapped out all the potential Iranian nuclear sites
- Unleashes a wave of attacks on Israel and the West by Hezbollah and other terrorist proxy groups Closes the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring above $100 a barrel and possibly creating a global economic crisis
- Destabilises Iraq, plunging the country into a new round of terror, creating further regional instability
- Creates a global public relations disaster. Intensifies antiAmericanism which critics argue that President Bush has made worse. Fosters a new generation of fundamentalist militants and terrorists
Bombing Iran would be a one sided affair. Relatively quick and painless on our part. (Remember Gulf War One?) 35 day air campaign, 100 hour ground war...game, set, match. Roughly 100 casualties. We need to pull this tooth before it becomes infected.
If we allow IRAN to aquire one nuclear weapon then they become "untouchable". From there, they will proceed to development several dozen weapons. (Having now aquired unlimited time.) At a time of their choosing, they will strike a massive blow to Israel and the U.S. They care not about a retalitory strike. Millions of people will be dead and they will go to heaven. We must strike IRAN for our sake and ironically for theirs.
Shawn Richardson, Seattle, USA
Here is what liberals say: "It's all the U.S. causing problems, which is why we are attacked", "we should be neutral". These are quotes from very uneducated individuals who didn't pay attention in the government school history class.
Well, we the theory of isolationism back in WWII. We were isolated from the war in Europe and wanted no part of it... then guess who knocked on the door.... Japan. They knocked pretty hard didn't they? So do you want to see a similar thing happen again? People that blame the U.S. for what is really going on in the world with these "radicals" are almost saying we deserved to get attacked on 9/11. These radicals, who are quoted for wanting to wipe countries such as Israel off the map(Iran's president said that on video no less) , do not care what the U.S. does or does not do. They want to kill us....get it? Pick up a history book and read it. If you notice, history repeats itself because people ignore it. Just like some people are doing now.
Greg Bates, Cartersville, GA
It would simply be madness. Bombing Iran is un-christian.
It is not the right thing to do.
Nuclear attacks may be considered as devilish.
We have to be good and not do what's Bad.
Vareillas Frederic George, Paris, France
Iran has not attacked anyone. The real threat to WWIII is the US military and its aggressive stance to controlling oil rich countries. Its like the bully on the street that takes the weaker kids toys. We all know the story, the bully ends up in jail, or gets beaten up by a bigger bully. An attack on Iran, will demoralize the US population. We are not happy about bombing other countries.
Mike Sullivan, Cleveland OH , USA
I agree with Nicholas from Ventura, CA.
See how long the world lasts without US support. Who are the first to send disaster relief aid? Who sends the most aid?
The British Empire (the previous World Policeman) was also hated. It's just the next round of King of the Hill. Whoever is on top now, everyone else wants to knock them off. Since no one else can right now, they're happy just to keep knocking 'em.
Anti-Americanism (as everything is now an "-ism") makes me sick. Sour grapes is all it is.
Andrew Brown, Toronto, Canada
Do me a favour! Miliband, the David version, is a boy on a man's job. We should all be ashamed that he is the best we can field, according to the Great One, who obviously needs his little tin soldiers to place where he likes.
susie, Vasteras, Sweden
Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
John F. Kennedy
darrel lavender, wichita, USA
I agree that the U.S. should stop being the worlds policeman. In fact, I wish the U.S. would back off from the world in all respects. Just do polite trading, etc. We should never have sent our troops to or spent our money on WW1, WW2, Korea, Balkans, etc. The liberated generation appreciates it, but the next ones quickly forget. We could have better transportation, a better health system and much more money in the treasury if we didn't interfere. I also think the U.S. should stop trying to feed the world or save the world, when disasters strike. If they have a sunami or earthquake, it's their problem. If they can't grow enough food, then we could sell them some. But why keep helping and giving and dying to a world that goes out of it's way to flip us the finger. I, for one, would like the U.S. to totally disengage from the world, then sit back and watch it handle it's own problems. Let the world listen to it's own music, treat itself with it's own medicine, watch it's own movies.
Nicholas, Ventura, Calif
ARE YOU NUTS?
I can't believe these are serious advantages for military action: "Creates the space for potential regime change and installation of a pro-western government in Tehran"; "Protects Israel from a potential nuclear holocaust"; "Reduces the risk to the West of a âdirtyâ bomb in big cities"...
These are as ridiculous as Cheney's now infamous assumption that the US would be welcomed as liberators.
We must think long-term. The US can surely destroy the Iranian standing army, but it is the geurilla warriors created in the wake of this who will be the greatest threat to Americans.
Iran will eventually get nuclear power - even this article concedes the development of weapons will only be forestalled. Whether they use this technology to develop weapons depends on whether the children of Iran grow up in the aftermath of a bloody war. If they grow up having witnessed American bombs and soldiers killing their families and friends, you can bet that retribution will come.
BLACKHOLE, Toronto,
One thing I think people don't understand, especially the Muslim world, is that the USA is not fighting with all its forces. The US has a very small fighting force in Iraq. A far larger one could be deployed instantly. I've always seen the Iraq mission as a practice, warrior building exercise. It gives young GI's experience fighting a determined enemy. While the US is fighting a limited war in Iraq, it is developing next-generation weapons, and equipping the bulk of its forces with them.
Despite what one thinks about the morality of the Neo-Con mission, it is effective. If they are able to keep China and Russia out of the wars, then the US will control the region. Russia and China will stay out so long as it is profitable to stay out.
Iran is just the next stage in a long running plan for the US to control energy supplies, while winning HUGE profits for oil companies, and propping up the dollar with MASSIVE borrowing and spending on what will be a very enlarged defense bill.
Paul, oakland, ca
To Mr. Hansen
The US surface fleet is indeed vulnerable to cruise missiles when in close proximity to the shore. If a carrier battle group were to deploy in the confines of the Persian Gulf it would be in peril.
The vast majority of the Silkworms have a 50 mile range. That means the delivery platforms must be within 50 miles of the fleet. The likelihood of any serious threat making it within 50 miles of a US carrier battle group is nil. You might get one, maybe two diesel/electric subs that close but no surface forces and no aircraft would make it.
In all likelihood US naval forces will be 200 miles out to sea in the Indian Ocean and well insulated from any threat of Iranian cruise missiles. Even if a few made it within range the missile defense capabilities of US surface forces are formidable.
If you were thinking about the Millennium Challenge it would be good to go over those circumstances and ask if they would be replicated in an actual conflict with Iran.
John-Michael , Springfield, Illionis
Iran's silkworm missiles will sink most of the US Mediteranean fleet within one hour of the start of any insane bombing attack on Iran.
John R. Hansen
La Habra, CA
John R. Hansen, La Habra , CA.
America will bomb Iran. That is unless something drastic happens in the next 6-8 months. Soft diplomacy is generally seen as a stall tactic by the Iranian regime and little worth is placed in it anymore. Without Russia and China comrepensive sanctions cannot be put in place. Our only remaining choices are too allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons or use some harder diplomacy. That means diplomacy backed up by the very real threat of crippling military actions.
After Israel's successful bombing of the Syrian target Iran has some very serious questions about the efficacy of their air defenses. They know that they cannot impose significant costs on the attacking force.
It is a horrifying game of chicken. Hopefully a sounder calculus will emerge within Iran. The bottom line is that they can slow our GDP growth and we can cripple their economy.
John-Michael , Springfield, Illionis
It seems to me the present situation is like that of existing fighting between Homo Neanderthal and Homo sapiens some 30.000 yeras before.Now the same Homo sapiens with different religious beliefs come to a point either one will exist or not.I guess the Muslims and Islam will exist as it was founded by a man who was orphan , poor, illetarate, alone and everyone were against him including those elite and powerful class of Mecca some 1500 years ago.Surprisingly this Muhammed had defeated all and had destroyed those elite powerful but evil people.Interestingly situation is like that now in 2007.It seems to me through Iran Islam and the Muslims will continue on earth.
Rana Mohan, Lisbon, Portugal
Highly unlikely, as slightly-prior-to-election stunts by Presidents have oft historically backfired spectacularly--most infamously Carter's 1980 attempt at hostage-rescue (not coincidentally, from Iran).
Sheer size alone (22% of lower-48, around 70 million people) would be a rather strong deterrent to actions; the fact of being able to attack from three sides at once--in theory Iraq, Pakistan/Afghanistan and Arabian Sea) DOES NOT overcome this/these issue(s).
Sadhasiv, Washingon DC, USA
Will Bush really bomb Iran?
Yet another lie of WMD?
I thank you
Firozali A.Mulla MBA PhD, Dar-Es-Salaam, Dar-Es-Salaam Tanzania
Why does the US think it has the right to be a 'Global Policeman'. It's poicy, it seems, is to promote greed and materialism which is mistaken for happiness! America's healthcare policy seems to sum it up pretty well! There are many countries out there in this big bad world run by greedy cruel dictators is it going to sort them all out as well, or just carry on making a mess up of the cherry picked, oil rich ones??
Billy Bop, london, uk
I think Dubya is wait'n on the American election results... invasion if a democrat is closing in on the white house (let them tree huggin dem's figure it out) or an uneasy peace (good for decades of propoganda and the complete destruction of the Bill of Rights) if a republican appears the front runner.
I miss Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky...
Brian, Los Angeles, USA / CA
So basically it's all to get a deal with Israel. Note, however, that when our Israeli Middle East expert says âIsrael will be obliged to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state within a short and firm timetable..â
we know what Israel means by " a short and firm timetable" namely, never.
Francis Tuttle, Madrid,
"What moral authority does the US have to threaten Iran in this way?"
This is a childish point, like its not possible to discern any difference between Middle East society and the West. There are profound differences: we are democratic not theocratic, live together multi-culturally not mono-culturally, accept different people and how they live and don't impose one ideology. Its a comparison between tolerant diversity and intolerant supremacism, where we have non proliferation treaties and a universal (Western) understanding that no one wants WMD being used, ever. In Iran? - the president threatens Israel, threatens the US with a message "convert to Islam or accept the consequences", and is just one example of worldwide Islamism with an entrenched and deep, belligerent hatred of the West.
This 'we've got them so why can't others' argument is ridiculous. If Iran gets WMD that is a very serious matter - this is not just political rhetoric, its like football hooligans getting guns
Joe, Manchester,
If Iran makes no move against other crude oil producers in the Gulf states but merely reduces its own crude oil exports by 50% the price of crude oil world-wide will rise by at least 50% to $150 per bbl within weeks
The same percentage reduction in Iran's exports in 1979 tripled, repeat tripled, the cost of crude oil. So later it will fall again but meanwhile what will our economies do?
The history is all there in available statistics.
Let's cut our own throats? He hasn't won one yet and he isn't going to win this one.
Robert Scott, Lucignano 52046, Italy
Remembering Chernoble ,not to mention the LA fires, how I ask you can anyone think of limiting the effect of a nuclear bomb to a single target.(Israel) Like peeing into the wind.If I am missing something please enlighten me.
Andrew G O'Donnell, Sacramento,, CA. USA
Mike Hunt of Swaziland states "Israel, which can look after itself with it's Nukes it aquired from the US".
Very interesting claim. Do you have proof for this ?
M.Lester, London, UK
Things must be changed.It is the law of the nature. As a muslim I can understand how much we are victimized due to the evil policies of some evil lobbies. There are 52 Muslim dominating countries with 1.3 billion population. If we check the history of the last 300 yeras we will find the answer how the muslims were obliged to pay and work for the west.The war with Iran should come not later but sooner and we the muslims belive it will be the turning point for us to calculate our rights on earth. If the war does not appear we will need to wait longer.
Sohel Saheen, Milan, Italy
In the last days The bible declares that Persia (Iran) will be an enemey of Israel and will align itself militarily with the Large power to the North of Israel; Moscow is due North of Israel. I believe what we are seeing is what the Bible calls the Biblical war of Gog and Magog about to occur One side represents Arab nations hellbent on destroying Israel and the other is the Nation of Russia aiding the Arabs with whatever arms they might need to get the job done. If we bomb Iran world war 3 has begun Russia will come to the aide of Iran and will threaten invasion of Israel, Hezbollah will fire a constant birage of missles towards Israel and Israel will destroy Damascus which will fullfill the Prophecy in the book of Isaiah that Damascus will be destroyed. As Russian comes with arabs in toe to attack Israel the Lord will send upon them fire from Heaven and they will waste away while they stand. As this occurs the world will cry out Peace , the anti-christ will come as the church leaves
Joshua, Mobile, Alabama, U.S.A.
A full military invasion of Iran should not be ruled out and as time goes on its becoming an ever more attractive possibility that would rid the world of this evil regime which seeks only to proliferate nuclear weapons to terrorise us in our own countries. Iran is an oil rich country, which clearly does not require nuclear power, the Iranian regime wants to develop nuclear weapons with those centrifuges nothing else.
Frank, Manchester, UK
I think it is time to ask ourselves, do we really want a third world war. Death, destruction, misery and agony is what they create.
It seems to me the combined brain power of all world citizens could solve our problems without killing each other. I believe people want to live in peace except for a few. We need to learn to stay in our own back yard. I do not understand killing in the name of religion, whatever that religion may be. What is wrong with being good and kind to one another. Whoever your God is, surely
wants you to pursue good, not bad. Give peace a chance. If we cashed in all the money spent on nuclear weapons stockpiles,
no one would need or want for anything. What is wrong with that?
Ron Penny, San Benito, Texas, USA
Yes Bush wants to bomb Iran to oblige Israel to accept a Palestine state. At the end of November it will be a conference at Annapolis ( Maryland), but it incertain which countries will partecipate. Israel seems ready to give the Negev and some other parts of Palestine occupied but Israel doesn't want come to the state of 1967. So it's not easy diplomacy could solve the Israel-Palestians problem and it is possible Bush bombs Iran. Kissenger writes this in a Italian newspaper today.
If Bush attack Iran it can be the beginning of the WWIII because
Russia will not accept (Iran is close to Russian borders) and we all will be in the WWIII. Without not considering the suicidal attacks in Europe. Someone stops Strangelove.
antonio, milan, italy
the day we all run out of oil will be a good day for humanity, these wars will be known in history as the Oil Wars and at least we wont have any more wars over oil. humanity needs to concentrate on clean power and space exploration, plenty of fuel in space if we only concentrated on obtaining it instead of billions of dollars spent killing humans which is humanitys greatest asset. democracy is a load of garbage, it will only work for humanity when there is only ONE democracy ruling all
yomomma, london,
To be honest, a thrid world war probably wouldn't be a bad thing. As long as they kill EVERY SINGLE HUMAN on the planet so they can't ever reinhabit the planet. Let's face it, the world has been happily plodding along for the last 5 billion years and we've been here for a few thousand years (so called civilised humans) and look at the wars, hatred and greed that we have created. Bring a full on nuclear holocaust on and let some other species be blessed with this planet becasue the way I look at it we don't deserve.
david (English), madrid,
Even Republicans like myself are ready for Bush to move on. He has his own agenda for one world gov't and it's not anything we the people want. He doesn't seem to have a clue how unpopular the wars, globalism, the North American Union, etc.etc. really are. We need leaders who aren't insane globalists OR career politicians.
Rick, Dickinson,
It is sad to see how few people here have a clear understanding of the stakes involved in allowing Iran to produce its own nuclear materials. One person went so far as to post assurances by Iran's Supreme Leader that Iran had no intention of going to war. Where have we heard that before. If Iran wants nulcear power for peaceful purposes, why have they refused Russia's offer to supply its almost completed reactor with fuel rods? Being able to produce its own fuel rods is a step away from being able to produce fissionable materials for nuclear weapons. That capability is enough in itself to alter the entire landscape in Gulf region and, in time, to give Iran the ability to strike at Europe with long range ballistic missiles it is already developing. Iran is a theocracy, with Islam as its guiding light. Islam is a great religion, but with leaders looking to its precepts for quidance, we can never be certain when they will abandon pragmatism and become religious zealots.
John d'Amecourt, Washingon, DC
War is always a human tragedy. The powers that be, despite any condolences offered or declarations of regret made about 'collateral damage', know that they are chiefly killing innocent men, women and children. They do not care. That is war, and no pleading on moral or humanitarian grounds will stop it.
As for $100+ oil prices, most of those in power only stand to gain from the increase.
Bruce Stafford, Frankfurt, Germany
As an American, I am counting down the days until Bush is out of office! Not only has he damaged diplomatic relations with the rest of the world, he is in favor of forming the North American Union (NAU) with Canada and Mexico, which will have a disastrous effect on the sovereignty of these three nations. When will the US get out of other people's affairs and tend to the needs of its own citizens???
Disgruntled American Citizen, Anaheim, California
"Do Not Attack IRAN"
How many blood should be poured on earth further because of oil and powerthirsty government of Iran and US both?, why innocent people should pay for this? how many children should be still killed injured and orphaned ? PLZ Open your heart and eyes,Forget your prejudice ,Iran does not consist only of mullahs and stupid ahmadinejad? in Iran most of people are normal people like you who love american culture and european people hear western music, the most of Iranian people are not relegious at all make their own wine in basement( it is forbidden) the young people dress very modern with latest fashion from europe and the most important things they are embrassed to have ahmadinejad as president they did not vote for him believe or he has cheated!A war is all what the Iranian goverment wants let us fight for our freedom by ourselves
I am against Iranian government and Nuclearpower at all but there should be other solutions rather then war if we are civilized !
An Iranian Woman , London, UK
The President of the United States will get his war with Iran if all the cards are played right. High oil prices wont matter. I wont be suprised if George Bush is stock pilling the oil somewhere from Iraq so that wont bother him. Responding some questions about "protecting US troops after air strike" I doubt very much protecting American lives will be a priority as everyone is made to believe. Christ, they don't even protect their own citizens let alone their soldiers. Attacking Iran will be a large mistake. Russia & China wont stand by. Iran will be attacked for the Oil, nothing more. And if not, thats how Russia and China will view it. America are no different than the Roman Empire. The American people will suffer for what their leaders do.
Joseph, Stevenston, Ayrshire
In the "arguments against" can we not include the picture on the front page, of those lovely women who might easily be blown to bloody fragments if George W. Bush gets to unleash his Gang that Couldn't Shoot Straight on Iran. Human tragedy visited on a population of nice people who just want to live their lives, is that not an "argument against?"
Jim Houghton, Encino, CA, USA
To Sid Dickens: Thanks for your comments, you've given me something to look forward to. Happy Sunday.
Elizabeth Bennett, Sacramento, California
All this talk that G Dubya has 15 months left in the White house just remember the nicknames he has called himself like, I'm the DECIDER, I'm the COMMANDER GUY, I'm the WAR PRESIDENT, if he start's WW111 what's to stop him standing up and saying, "Hey everyone I'm the WORLD WAR THREE, DECIDER, COMMANDER GUY, all Election's are off, I'm staying put in the White House till I'v seen this war through" that could last for 20 more year's according to Tricky Dickie Cheney.
CARY G DEAN, RYDE, ISLE OF WIGHT
PLEASE! Ahminejad did NOT SAY that Israel would be "wiped off the map". Period. That's a gross misrepresentation and the Times should know better - just because Dr Goebbels said that if you repeat a lie often enough then people will begin to believe it does NOT mean the Times should do so! Iran is small fry, and just happens to be the realpolitik target of an oil-hungry USA - everything else is a pretext.
Is it really too much to ask the Times to show some balance, and not stoop to this sabre-rattling and parrotting of the Bush regime? Jesus wept... we're talking about killing innocent people here... This is not some puerile game...
Voland, Caen, France
so iran has 3000 centrifuges .. but wait a minute they only have produced enriched uranium to less than 5% not the 80%+ that is required for a bomb.
oh wait a minute they need to get to running 26000 centrifuges before they can even be seen as being able to enrich uranium to any industrial scale ..
so why the lack of technical facts?
and what are they going to do with all of this nuclear material if they dont have a delivery system .. which they dont.
as for the 'suspected' syrian nuclear site .. dont make me laugh.
the uk has promised the usa logistical help in this war that will happen .. and nothing has been said that denies that scenario as described by seymour hersch.
wendy mann, glasgow,
Yes Bush will really bomb Iran.
Humpty fell off the wall a long time ago.
Might as well grind the pieces and throw
them to the winds of time.
Take a look at your world this morning.
It will not be the same next summer.
Long live the human spirit.
Michael S Harris, Sutton , Canada
One of my sons is now enlisting, and others are considering. If necessary I will have more still, and if they loosen the requirements I will go myself. Have you not seen what the Iranians and Syrians have been doing? Does anyone truly believe they will not use these materials once they complete them? In theory, sending one's nuclear waste to one's enemy kills at least two birds with one stone. Some of you might like to wager that the mullahs will become peaceful because of your desire for peace, but their actions make the odds long indeed. When the missiles fall (again) on London, and Dresden, then you will believe. Then it will be too late for you, once again, and the war will be far too big to escape on this planet, once again.
Ask the non-Shia Lebanese if they believe the mullahs are peaceful or rational. See how Hezbollah rearms itself even now, in full view of the UN observers. See how the Shia in Iraq call for a truce in order to rearm courtesy of Iran.
Fools, again.
Bryan, College Station, TX USA
Nukes are not an option for this planet. Let's hold this intention firmly and completely non-violently.
Jordan, Boston, USA
More dire journalism that confirms the continued decline of the accuracy of Times reporting - a little investigation would show that he never said anything like wiping Israel off the map, his speech was originally about the strong influence of Zionism and he said "this regime that is occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time."
The headline so oft quoted came from MEMRI an Israeli translation/propaganda unit that provides soundbites to the US media to justify American soldiers attacking the neighbours Israel doesn't like.
Israel has over 200 nukes (though have never allowed weapons inspectors) and would surely use them freely if Iran ever seriously thought about using a single solitary weapon against them.
This action in Iran is an attempt to kick off a much wider conflagration in the hope that such a war will herald Armageddon and the Rapture that will take up all Gods chosen so they can live in paradise away from the nasty destroyed earth they helped destroy.
b Royce, Manchester, UK
All this talk is pusing up oil prices and its only talk and oil is almost 100 USD per bar. If it does happen which I dont think it will, the price of oil will hit 200 USD plus, at the end of the day us tax payers will be footing the bill. Crazy
mohsen, malaga, spain
The US/Iran stand-off may culminate into WW111 sooner than we expected before our very watch.
If Ahmadinejad is to be believed, nothing will deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear programme, which he claims is for peaceful energy purposes while at the same time drumming his chest before everyone that Israel will one day be wiped off the map.
It is only logical enough to conclude that so long as the US recognises the existence of Israel and is willing to do all in it's power to stop Iran; and so long as Iran is BENT on 'wiping Israel out of the map'; a defensive(strike-first option) or retaliatory approach on the part of the US in favour of Israel are the indisputably end results and then... your guess is as good as mind.
The Son
a
Akoson Raymond, Dongguan/Changan, Guangdong
If the Iranians were to nuke Israel wouldnât the Palestinianâs be wiped out as well? Also the Lebanon who the Iranians have been killing people to take control wouldnât this county be heavily hit by fallout. As would Jordan, Egypt, Syria and poison the Mediterranean bit as well.
DA, aberdeen, UK
wrote in blog on Sunday, March 05, 2006 a simple
8-step strategy to topple Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI):
1) identify IRI's key political and military leadership and two layers down.
2) Finalize IAEA, UNSC actions and obtain EU approval.
3) Plan enough oil reserves to support the West and Allies for 6 months - DO NOT START OTHERWISE
4) Warning to Iran to surrender it's leadership
5) Initiate a 6-month bombing campaign of IRI political and military leadership. Top leadership and his associates must be targeted on nightly basis.
6) Drop tactical Nukes on the Revolutionary Guards getting moving towards US forces in Iran or Afghanistan.
7) Sustain bombing until IRI military submits and Iran surrenders leadership for international trial.
8) Ask UN to assist with elections in post-IRI Iran and assist Iran's new democratically elected government -
NO INVASION PLEASE
Matzi, Toronto, Canada
People obviously need to read more.
"We have no problem with the world. We are not a threat whatsoever to the world, and the world knows it. We will never start a war. We have no intention of going to war with any state."
-Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-
Has anyone actually proven that Iran has nukes? Japan, Korea, and many other countries have nuclear reactors; have they ever been questioned? Plus, if Iran even dared to nuke ANYWHERE, the US would nuke the living hell out of them, AND it would probably mean that other innocent Asian countries would suffer the effects of nuclear radiation. Can it really be that the "leaders" of the strongest countries on earth haven't even considered these factors? Hello? Look at Iraq!
P.S. Iran, a non-violator of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,
is being attacked by the U.S.A, a violator if I could ever see one.
Oh and Bush has vested interests in oil and weapon companies...hmm!
Ed, braford,
Bush's decision to bomb or not to bomb Iran will depend neither on tactical calculations nor political considerations .
]t will emerge, when it does, from deep psychological cum doctrinaire origins best revealed by the dictum " if you are not with us ,you are against us!".
That is more than the childish desire to be surrounded by support and love ; that is the inability to construe the possibility of any other than one's perception of facts and the interpretation of those facts!
Bush is a driven man who, unhappily for the USA and the World, came to power at a junction in history in which no other power existed to moderate his vision or force him to back down.
Hence the unprecedented menace that the USA under Bush is to the world order .
Iran, more doctrinaire and no less driven, will, if attacked, react in a manner that may surprise Bush and force him to reconsider...
Or will it be too late then??
Omar, Amman, Jordan
the only country spreading its terror and hegemony around the earth is the US. the consequences of such an attack on iran are frightening. the people likely to be harmed in the west as a result of any retaliatory action will be innocent civilians.
the US electorate really need to wake up and realise that their goverment is the greatest threat to world peace at present.
we need no more war.
dr smt, leeds, uk
Iran, if capable, will never launch a nuclear strike on Israel on anyone else, just as the Soviets, and or Pakistan/India have not. Doing so means self annihilation with a counter strike. Nuclear capability provides security and bargaining power politically and strategically. This is not difficult logic to understand. A nuclear Iran need not necessarily make for a more dangerous world.
Paul, Munich, Germany
The claims which presuppose Iran will strike Israel the minute it renders an atomic bomb operational are infinitely silly.
As if the Iranians have the brain to make the bomb, but not the brains to realize the consequences of using it in a "first strike" capacity.
It's simple math really and does not require nuclear physics expertise: 1 Iranian bomb vs. 200 Israeli bombs is a ruinous, suicidal equation, even for an overzealous Iranian.
Iran is merely after the respect, goodies and pampering the North Koreans are getting. It seems no bomb, no goodies.
Maxine Jolie, Portland, USA
Bush doesn't realize if he bombs Iran it could be the start of a major war. He is trying to save face.
JJ, London, UK,
if russia does a deal with iran,
nuclear retaliation wise-no need for iran to
develope bomb problem solved.
iran is an independent nation
i hope it stays that way and does not become
a western lap dog.
robert, london, london
Surely someone else on here can see the massive PRO towards destroying Iran's potential nuclear threat?
Someone said Israel might have nuclear weapons? they definitely have nuclear weapons and would use them if they were attacked or felt threatened by a nuclear capable Iran. Even if the US didn't attack Iran do you really think Israel will not act itself and then where will we be?
Its the lesser of two evils, if the US and others take action at least it wont destabilise the whole region whereas if Israel strikes the Arab nations will go mental.
The fact is Israel especially but also Saudi, Kuwait and probably even Pakistan would not be happy having nuclear capable Iran on their doorstep so its simply a matter of time, better we do it and try to limit collateral damage then let the whole thing spew out into other areas.
I believe that is what Bush refers to as the potential for World War, if we were to leave it until someone in the region loses their patience.
E M, Colchester, UK
I have to agree with Mike Hunt's comment. If we wish to 'bring on' the quick implementaton of professor Huntington's theory of the demise of the West and its professied takeover by China and others, this will be it: the total destabilisation of the Middle East with clearly measurable knock on effects on Europe, North Africa and hasten the eclipse of the American and Anglosaxon spheres of influnce. Almost as good as letting Israel unleash its 'Samson' suicidal nuclear attack plan against the Saudi oil fields eh?! and let our good friend and second proxy, Turkey start it by finishing off Iraq by invading it to ostensibly punish the 8 million or so Kurds lurking in the area spanning Syria and Iran. Surely no one could think of a better conspiracy to take our minds off our everyday problems.
Nicholas Xenakis, Borough, London, England/UK
To Scott, Durham, NC, USA
I'd be watching my front door right about now........ I bet your going to be receiving a visit shortly........
Nils, Midlands, UK
Where does this reporter get the idea that the "US public is growing acclimatised to the threat of war" ... ? The sentiments are stronger than ever (perhaps she did not read about all the marches yesterday?), and Bush's approval rating is the lowest ever. The only reason that Iraq wasn't top of the agenda with Rice is because the US is desperately trying to put this behind them without saying they failed. Bush has a legacy alright - over 4,000 Americans dead because of his war games.
Richard Stevenson, New York, US
For the sake of all humanity we must hope and pray that the answer is no.
Karen, Adelaide, South Australia
This is a no win situation for the forward looking western societies and we are all going to suffer in the future whatever decision is taken by the US Government..
However, it imay be better for us in the west to be labelled "the bad people", suffer all the immediate inconvenience and expense, live under the threat of low level but no less fearful terror for a generation by destroying the Iranian military and their nuclear programme .
The alternative ; to let the Iranian regime continue along its chosen path, will probably be more death more cost and continual disruption to our way of life and more systematic terror in the world. Whatever our personal opinions of Bush and Cheney and their motivation are , emphatically restraining the Iranian regime is in our interest.
chaplain, canterbury, Kent
Why is the time-tested logic of the Cold War, MAD (mutually assured destruction), not applicable vis-a-vis Iran if and when it has the bomb? No need for "denuclearization" by force.
M. Moehr, Verl, Germany
Malte Moehr, Verl, Germany
Weaponry and a willingness to use it, justified to a fundamentally naive electorate, as invasive surgery, has been the modus operandi of Bush foreign policy. In order to secure the future certain cancers have to be cut out, potential enemies identified, plans of attack constantly updated; the league table of Terror cannot remain static it has to be kept in a swirling flux lest isolationism and complacency replace fear...fear, which is the spin of the Administration and the moral argument for ever increasing Military budgets. In 1933 President F D Roosevelt said "Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself".
Douglas Miller, Fulham,
I wonder in the upcoming war with Iran, will their national treasures end up being looted as well, finding their way into American private collections, just as with Iraqs national treasures? Or do we have a plan this time?
Farrukh, Woking, UK
Funny how no-one mentions the fact that Russia have promised to see through the completion of the first nuclear power station in iran. That brings them into any conflict...My biggest worry is Bush not the Iranians or Russians.
hedz, birmingham, uk
So who ya rooting for in the up-coming Iran-US conflict? And in the Blue corner ...
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Japan
If the USA successfully devalued fascism in the 1940s, and later dismantled the Soviet state, then why should the US government not attempt to end the religious dogma of Iran and impose its democracy on the world? This last push against the religious states could unite the world!
Andrew, Southend-on-sea, Essex, UK
This is truly a difficlt situation. But do not forget that the so-called 'evidence' for Bush and Cronies to go in to topple Saddam was all based on truly faulty intelligence and a total lack of underatanding of the nature of Middle Eastern and Islamic society.
Will there be further blundering here. It seems that Bush is determined to leave any presidential successor with a real mess to clear up. Bush reminds one of a 'Yeehaw' General Custer about to re-enact the battle of the Little Big Horn. 'Death or Glory', but lay the blame on somebody else.
Yes, Iran under its present leadership looks none too stable. But is the US and Coalition Forces going to cause the deaths of 10 of hundreds of Iranian citizens. The term 'Colateral Damage' are words to fall off the tongue and appear to be meaningless. Maybe Bush and pals truly have their own heads jammed up their own politcal backsides!!
G Clarke, Chelsmford, United Kingdom
What about if a group of countries invades in USA? And I strongly believe this will happen sooner or later. But it is bound to happen and is inevitable.
I think this war of USA and Iran must happen. And this will be the start of destruction and collapse of America EVEN IF American runs back and stops the attack in the middle of the war. But after that even the God will not be willing to stop the total destruction of USA.
I do believe the alliance of willing countries will be invading USA, and the total destruction of USA is inevitable. May be several millions of American will be massacred during the invasion in USA.
Sid Dickens, London, UK
Surely there must be a third way in dealing with the Islamic republic of Idiots. Obviously doing nothing is out and a new war is also unworkable and will cost a huge amount in blood and money. That leaves the third option - empowering the people of Iran to rise up and depose the mullah's. We owe it humanity to at least give this a chance. War and Killings will not solve this problem it will only prolong the pain.
Bahramerad, W.Wickham, Kent, UK
Do you really think that Iran is big enemy of Israel. Indeed the governments are not friends but iran has the highest population of Jews in the Mid East after Israel. Ahmadinejad is obviously not the best politician we have had in the last 30 years. He says things that he shouldn't say like "we don't have any gays in Iran". So blatantly when he says Iran will wipe Israel out of the map this is one of the example of him screwing up. Obviously Iran in Mid East's regional power and the US wants a weaker Iran because it wants Iran to be a US ally, same as 30 years ago because Iran has control over the straight of Hormoz and Persian Gulf and Caspian sea. Also geostrategically Iran is the strongest in the Region connecting Central Asia to Europe (Turkey) and Arabs. Thats why America wants Iran to be its ally
maziar, Tehran, Iran
I think this war, if happens, is for the sake of OIL! Nothing less nothing more. Where are the claimed massive destruction weapons in IRAQ?! I read some comments which imply it's writer eagerness in war. I'm terribly sorry for this kind of people, for they couldn't see, or don't want to see the miserable consequences of war.
Pidani, Tehran, Iran
If Bush manages to create a Palestinian state, it will be the most useful thing he will have done in his Presidency. Its just too bad he dismissed the original Road Map to peace at the start of his Presidency. All the consequencies that followed that decision - 9/11 , Aghanistan, Iraq and now Iran could have been avoided. Some people just have to learn things the hard way.
gary, London,
What about the role of the Chinese and the Russians who have publicly stated that they wouldn't support another war in the Middle East? China is desperate for oil and wouldn't want to lose access to Iranian oil. Leaving aside the problem of what we would do after any attack. Attack again in another 6 months - or impose regime change via a land invasion? Against a country twice as populous as Iraq and with much stronger armed forces.
Does anyone think this stuff through?
Ned, London,
Politics of the madhouse.
Philip Andrews, London,
Perses delenda est
They will not be permitted to have the bomb.
Dave, Columbus, Ohio, USA
Time will be the judge here...
If America stands by, lets Iran develop a weapon, which is used on a target such as Israel, then who do you think will be slaughtered in the media - America.
If America attacks, who do you think will be slaughtered in the media - America.
Its a lose-lose situation for Bush and his replacement.
Quentin, Palmerston North, new Zealand
Since we're playing "what if," then what if the Iranians do the smart thing and destroy the Saudi oil ports as well as block the Straits?
Robert Dare, Clinton, USA/Missouri
South Korea is somehow managing to live with its enemy N. Korea having nuclear weapons.
India and Pakistan, nuclear neighbours, often enemies, are somehow refraining from nuking each other as yet.
Israel very probably has nuclear weapons.
The US, UK and other western nations certainly have enough nuclear weapons for WWIII.
What moral authority does the US have to threaten Iran in this way?
Whilst having a personal preference that all nations rid themselves of weapons of mass destruction, it is difficult to see how threatening Iran 'like a crazy man with a razor' is going to make any of us more secure.
Barbara Suzuki, Norwich, Norfolk
"The arguments for
"- Protects Israel from a potential nuclear holocaust. President Ahmadinejad has stated that Israel will be wiped off the map"
If Iran were to launch nuclear weapons at Israel, Israel has enough such weapons to destroy much of Iran. So is this a plausible scenario?
"- Reduces the risk to the West of a âdirtyâ bomb in big cities. Iran is a sponsor of terrorist groups such as Hezbollah"
Where is the hard evidence that Hezbollah could or would plant even one "dirty" bomb in a big city in the West?
"- Creates the space for potential regime change and installation of a pro-western government in Tehran"
More likely an attack would consolidate Iranian opinion behind President Ahmadinejad.
Mark Brady, San Jose, California, USA
Your Con's fail to take into consideration the gamble of Russian military alliances with Caspian states. It also fails to consider the very real likely hood that this conflict will not be contained to just Iran and the region. U.S. terror attacks will certainly increase however you make no mention of realistic possibility of a world war aftermath of such an event. Your con's also fail to consider that U.S. troop readiness requirements are 2 homeland to every troop in war theater. Presently the U.S. is lucky to have 1 to 1. Approaching a variety military forces with nearly one million is no Iraq. You also make no mention of the fact that when the U.S. was bombing Iraq the first time during the early 90's Iran was already engaged in a military buildup. We can be certain they were taking notes on U.S. weapons. The only thing about this that the U.S. President is getting right is that world war 3 is at our doorstep.
Michael W. Therrien, Beaumont, Texas
It's not the "knowledge to make a nuclear weapon" that's the issue. Knowledge is the easy part. That's been done already. Fission weapons are not complex devices from the perspective of fundamental physics.
The HARD part is obtaining the HEU or Pu239. This is followed next in difficulty by the critical maching of the pit , tamper, and explosive jacket for an implosion device. For a skilled metallurgist and an accomplished machinist, it would take some work but could be accomplished. A 10-12kT warhead is not unforseeable and would do substantial damage to Israel.
Thus the single AND ONLY critical gating factor is enrichment or, even easier, procurement from foreign sources (e.g., N. Korea).
If Iran can get hold of enough fissile material and perfect the right explosive lens arrangement, or adopt a simple gun design, then all bets for the Middle East are off.
This should be a scary prospect for ALL countries!
Nuclear physics isn't that hard, folks!
Scott, Durham, NC, USA
From 23-FEB-07:
It's interesting to consider how the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan have given US war planners open air corridors on the east and west sides of Iran. Unchallenged overflight is of great tactical advantage for surprise and greatly increases the possible directions from which air strikes may originate. If US air bases within Iraq and Afghanistan were utilized, a cruise missile / bomber strike could be off the ground and over targets inside Iran in a matter of minutes with sorties originating from multiple directions. Less time in the air equals less time for detection and even less for reaction on the ground. More directions equals more confusion.
To suggest that Bush didn't have Iran on his mind when he made the case to invade Iraq is a bit self-deceiving, I'd say. Iran has been THE rogue element in the Mid. East for years. In my opinion, Iraq and Afghanistan have been simply side shows, pretexts for establishing beachheads and precursors to the main event.
Thomas, Atlanta, GA, USA
So bombing Iran will make the middle east a more stable environment and protect those all important american lives ??
Riiiiight. Didn't think this one through did they ?
This goes far beyond protecting Israel, which can look after itself with it's Nukes it aquired from the US. Total de-stabilisation of the middle east is the obvious goal here. Looks like a good payday for the oilmen, Chainey clearly runs the show and is getting ready to cross another country off the map. This whole thing stinks to high heaven and there is nothing that can or will be done about it. Welcome to the new world order....
Mike hunt, swaziland,
I think the US will wage an intensive 5 day air war against Iran as indicated in the article; stand by to repel Iranian attacks on US forces in Iraq; help defend Israel from missile and air attacks; and take what hits that may result from this while Israel takes on Syria . . . it won't be pretty, but nukes in the hands of insane Iranians isn't pretty either.
Reis Kash, Springfield, Oregon, USA