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A grippingly topical nightmare unfolded in a television drama last week. Iran had secretly built a nuclear bomb, transforming the balance of power in the Middle East. All the United States could do was cut a deal and hope for the best as Tehran demanded a seat on the security council of the United Nations.
John Bolton snorts with derision at the scenario. But the only bit that he finds remotely funny is the prospect of Iran getting a seat on the security council; to him, long-time hawk and former American ambassador to the UN, the rest is a very real and global danger. Scientific experts and intelligence agencies are divided on when Iran might be able to build a bomb: it may be one, two, five or more years away from completion. For Bolton, this uncertainty misses the vital point.
“As we all know, intelligence estimates can be wrong in multiple directions – it may be the Iranians are farther away or it may be they are a lot closer. But you cannot base your policy on the hope of ‘just in time’ nonproliferation. You have to look at the strategic position that Iran has been pursuing for close to 20 years now, which is that they want a nuclear weapons capability, and take steps to prevent that before it happens.”
A lawyer turned diplomat, Bolton, 59, has the rumpled suit and shaggy hair of an eccentric physicist. Behind the wire-rimmed glasses, however, a Vulcan logic drives him to be one of the most fluent advocates of forceful action to stop Iran going nuclear.
First, he argues, Iran is a threat to more than the Middle East: “When you add up the record of Iran in supporting terrorism, it is clearly seeking hegemony in the region and to become a player on the world stage. But Iran and North Korea are also important, not simply because of the threats they pose themselves, but because of the risk of even greater proliferation if they are perceived as having acquired and kept nuclear weapons contrary to the efforts of the US and others.
“As the Arab states see Iran progressing towards nuclear weapons they contemplate getting nuclear weapons themselves. In the past year over a dozen Arab countries have declared to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] that they, too, want peaceful civil nuclear programmes. That’s step one [towards a bomb]. So the stakes are very high.”
What do you do about it? Bolton would prefer not to be starting from where we are today: “My preference going back several years would have been regime change.” He believes the Iranian regime is fragile: great swathes of the Iranian people, especially among the educated middle classes, are deeply unhappy with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the fundamentalists. Those dissidents should have been assisted, covertly and overtly, to embrace the West and move to democracy.
The problem, says Bolton, is that the CIA has become “gun-shy”. The US has deferred to the “EU three” – Britain, France and Germany – which for four years have tried to negotiate Iran out of its nuclear weapons. They have failed: “This is a case study of why diplomacy is not cost-free. That effort at failed negotiations has given Iran more than four years to perfect the complex science and technology it needs for nuclear weapons.”
In Bolton’s view, fostering regime change cannot now be relied on to prevent Iran getting the bomb: “I think the Iranians know all they need to know to create a nuclear device. The only thing that stands in their way is resources and, given that oil is at $90 a barrel or more, resources are not a constraint.”
What options does that leave? Bolton has just published a book about his political career, beginning with Ronald Reagan’s first administration and concentrating on Bolton’s time at the UN. Although its title, Surrender is not an Option, refers to his unwillingness to compromise on political principles, it also echoes how he believes the US should approach the Iranians.
If Iran won’t voluntarily yield on its nuclear ambitions it will have to be stopped by force. Critics will cry that the smartest bombs and best laid plans have gone astray before. “There’s a lot of predictions about apocalyptic responses that I think are unrealistic,” Bolton counters. He compares the example of Israel’s recent bombing raid on a suspected nuclear facility in Syria: “Look at the reaction: no response from Syria. Silence from the Arab world. No response from Iran.
“What is Iran going to do? Is it going to support terrorism in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip – as opposed to what they are doing now? Can they afford to cut off oil exports – that is, the principal source of their national wealth? They need to sell as much as anybody else, so I don’t think that’s likely.”
A year ago Bolton thought President George W Bush would tackle the Iranian dilemma, by force if necessary, before his term ends next year. Now he believes the State Department, which he lacerates for careerist covering of backsides (along with the British Foreign Office), has hobbled the will to act. Bolton says gloomily that the threat remains and will grow worse.
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To Steve in Baton Rouge, you wrote: "But I put this question to Mr. Dean A. Nash, who says that Iran has "threatened to annihilate Israel, even at a cost of sacrificing itself". When exactly has Iran done this?" Here is my answer:
Iranian Ayatollah Hashemi Rasfanjani:
âIf one day the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israelâs possession [meaning nuclear weapons]âon that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. Thisâ¦is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.â
I believe that this was in 2002.
And I'm sorry to disappoint you, but I think that the Western powers (including Russia) totally screwed the Palestinians after WWII.
Dean A. Nash, Shenzhen, China
I love locutions like "forceful action" and "stopped by force." Neocons like Bolton never spell out what they mean. In this case he probably means bombing -- not just bombing of "nuclear installations" but all over the country as is planned out in various neocon war plans. Somehow, even after Iraq, they still believe such a course of action will be clean and surgical and not further stabilize the Middle East.
Tom L, Chicago, IL, USA
I am interested to find out why Iran having a nuclear weapon is any more of a threat than India and Pakistan having nuclear weapons. Both nations built nuclear weapons and were pretty much welcomed into the club. Israel has nuclear weapons, so it's unlikely that Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel unless it's hoping for MAD (mutually assured destruction). Certainly, Iran would not use nuclear weapons against the USA because there would be no MAD, there would be just one explosion vs. obliteration. This entire issue is senseless, and someone needs to explain to the Iranians that if they need power, they should consider developing their solar industry because that's the only safe, non-polluting source of power available. They don't need a nuclear plant with all the waste it produces that has to be burried somewhere at catastrophic costs.
Steve, Los Angeles, CA
Bolton is irrelevant! Ok, it may be entertaining to have a guy like that who likes to show off "as a bad American".
He has nothing to say and he never had. Rants are not diplomacy.
Guenter, Holualoa, USA, HI
Forget Iran. Look at Pakistan and India who DO have nukes and are not as stable as Iran. Do we even know who Pakistan is allied to? Their secret service did help create Al Qaeda and there are involved in regional strife with them and other terrorist groups like the tamil tigers. It's more likely the danger of these nukes falling into the hand of terrorist are from these countries. And it was the US who handed out the technology to them for a quick buck and return service in uranium sales.
Even the old soviet states are a bigger threat of leaking nukes then Iran.. Just look at the world map to see the US's ambition in the middle east. Iraq, Iran & Afghanistan all in a row.
Michael, Sydney, Australia
âWhat is Iran going to do? asks Mr. Bolton.
Surely that depends on what the US does militarily first. For instance, the US might decide to use nukes, which could affect whole Iranian cities.
In any case Mr. Bolton, would be well advised to ask himself whether Americans could stomach a few bumps and bruises should they pick military fight with Iran, without escalating the war into full fledged nuclear bombardment of major Iranian cities. It's doubtful whether the Europeans could stop the Americans using nukes on Iranians at such a stage.
Eftekhar Ali, Dubai, UAE
Isn't it ironic that these 'dangerous' countries have done nothing to us in the USA. Good , kind America, on the other hand has been bombing Iraq since 1992 and has killed over a million people there since 2003. Thousands of civilians have died in Afghanistan, but Iran is such a danger. Iran is no danger to us , just as Iraq was no danger to us.Just as Afghanistan is no danger to us. If you are looking at Middle Eastern people attacking us.. well most of the purported 9/11 attackers were from Saudi Arabia and most of the foreigners caught fighting in Iraq are from Saudi Arabia. Why don't we accuse them of being a danger to us. Oh wait, Bush is in business with them.
Melissa , Wilton, CA, USA
Will someone please lock this dinosaur called Bolton up and throw away the key.
Zak, London, UK
Nobody ever says the obvious. We don't want crazy people and fanatics to have nuclear weapons. Nobody cares that France, England and Israel have nukes. They are rational actors. I don't go to sleep at night worrying about whether or not I will get nuked by Israel. Please people, let's get real. Nuclear weapons in the hands of crazy people who think they can expedite the return of the sixth Imam is not a good scenario. Nuclear weapons in the hands of tribal Arabs who want to avenge some perceived insult to their grandfather in an eye for and eye retribution is not a good scenario. The world is full of nations and people who should NOT have nuclear weapons. If Iran changed from being a theocracy to just about anything else, there would probably be a lot less worry about them possessing nukes.
Ross, Austin, USA/TX
"The only thing that stands in their way is resources and, given that oil is at $90 a barrel or more, resources are not a constraint.â
Someone other than Bonkers Bolton might have had the honesty to say how oil came to cost $90 a barrel, and his role in bringing that about.
Todd, Roseville,
this guy bolton and "the neocons" have got to be smoking something, they really have to be. the propoganda comming out of DC about iran is worse than anything the soviets or goebbels could ever dream up. let iran develop a nuke theyd be radiated if they ever try to use it, and could it be that maybe just maybe they really are developing nuclear power for their own use. i think personally its a money bomb they are developing one that doesnt want to take US dollars similar to the one that imbescle saddam hussein developed and that he killed himself with.
joseph a canzoneri jr, lindenhurst, new york
All Iran needs to do in case of attack is capture a handful of American soldiers and parade them blind folded in TV. Without even hurting them, then Mr Bolton has to come up with some answer to their mothers. Iran can even ask for a seat in UNSC.
BTW, the gun-shy CIA is already doing covert terrorist acts in southern Iran.
Mehdi, Tehran, Iran
How come it is okay for Israel to have nuclear weapons and no one else in the mideast? Iran has attacked no country in more then 200 years. What if tomorrow Vietnam, worried about China, decided it needed Nuclear weapons? Would the U.S. re-fight the Vietnam war all over again? Bolton, by the way, took a pass in that war.
Andy, Toronto, Canada
Iran a threat? Its' total military budget is about $4 bl. The US spends $500 bl. plus some $19bl or so on nuclear weapons development alone. There is no threat nor is there even the slightest evidence that nuclear weapons are being produced or even planned. The US has created a mirage and insists on believing its own propaganda until it gets its megalomaniac way. This is classic fascism.
Roger Lafontaine, Youngstown, OH
Go for it Europe!
Dan, tuba city, usa
Secular modern Iranians are not the same as the theocrats. Please not mix them up.
No sane Iranian wants to break international law.
Ali Mostofi, Bracknell,
Iran has threatened to start WWIII if they aren't allowed to pursue nuclear weapons. What will they threaten once they have nuclear weapons?
Mike Sorensen, las vegas, USA
Why is no one saying anything about Israel's nuclear bombs?
yaw yeboah, london,
But what to do given the Iranian mindset also? They are determined to get the bomb. The leadership despises non-musleums, non-persions, and the west for a lot of deep reasons. Their logic is to get the bomb, not to compromise, and as we all know they lie incessantly about everything as they scheme and finance the continuing middle east conflicts. They are as cynical as it gets no matter what you may think of America. Iran still remains an implacable problem and it pays for them to keep the Palestinians and Iraqi's in turmoil. The example of Pakistan tells it all. They were the first Islamic nation to get the bomb and the first to create massive proliferation to known irresponsible regiemes. This is the plain reality and we can only expect irresponsibility on the part of the Iranians. They do not work on a western mindset and we need to realize that. You cannot successfully negotiate with this mindset as they believe they are totally right.
Brian Stewart, Los Angeles, USA
Gun shy? Are you kidding????
Bolton should retire!
Loraine Wells, Monterey, CA
I think Bolton should be in the white house to initiate his beliefs
Let the american wage wars right or wrong and the congress debating it for decades.
WHILE China EU and the rest of the world is making peace friends and growing economy.
Bolton doesn't think the UN should deal with international issues.
At the helm of war drumbeats, Bolton accused the UN body fof feetdragging. and could not tolerate it.
Now does he have a say about the disastrous war against a nation who did not attack or threaten US or anyone else.
Words are so cheap that even a human lives has become as cheap as his words
Iraqis bodies strewn across the country for dogs to eat.
He thought he was right, who punishes him or the rest who are directly responsible for the ongoing catastrophe.
Phonl, LOndon, UK
America's power has already declined. The dollar is in the sewer and our word means nothing! We forget the past just 6 years later and do not finish what we start. The people that we promise to help are slow to responed, why? Because actions speak louder than words; just when have we finished that which we started. When? The 1940's? Did we then?
I am sorry to say it is already too late and my own son will not enjoy the type of life that of our selves, parents and other generations. The life of the good old 1700's will look good in a few years if we fail not only we americans but those in europe too!
R White state of Maine United States of America Ret USMC
R White, Bangor, Maine USA
As England was the jump-off point for the invasion of France as Kuwait was the jump-off for the invasion of Iraq, so was Germany to Iran as the ultimate enemy to be defeated. But this time the US military has gottten itself - only temporarily one trusts - bogged down in France.
If you have ears to hear, then you know that Iran has made it's global revolutionary intentions as clear as the Nazis ever did. Do you think Bolton or Bush or anyone else WANTS another battle for Berlin? Listen, I'm a Viet Nam veteran with a son blown up in Iraq, and I don't want it either. But even less do I wish to be compelled to worship some god other than my own or surrender my personal freedoms to some Islamic Pope or Pontiff. Sorry, on this one John Bolton is correct. War with Iran looms. Get used to it.
David Walker, Flat Rock, NC / USA
"Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel"
We (the civilized world) would be foolish to believe this thoroughly discredited nonsense.
http://www.mohammadmossadegh.com/news/caught-red-handed/
Spoff, Auckland, New Zealand
I will not comment on the remarks of the chicken-hawk, Vietnam draft dodger (read his autobiography), washed out and tossed out warmonger Bolton. But I put this question to Mr. Dean A. Nash, who says that Iran has "threatened to annihilate Israel, even at a cost of sacrificing itself". When exactly has Iran done this? On the contrary, it is the USA and Israel (no doubt the axis of Mr. Nash's "civilized world") that have launched aggressive wars again and again, and are repeatedly threatening violence against Iran. Israel has attacked and occupied land from ALL its neighbours. Iran has not attacked a neighbour in centuries.
Steve, Baton Rouge, USA
Will the U.S. fight a war with any country in the world that decides it wants nuclear weapons? What if Vietnam, concerned about China, wants them? Will the U.S. re-invade Vietnam and fight Vietnam war 2? (Bolton , like all the other chickenhawks took a pass on that war). The U.S. created nuclear weapons, had had them longer then any other country in the world and is the only country ever to use them, not once but twice. The U.S. has more nuclear weapons then any country on earth too. So who is the U.S. to decide what is right?
Andy Lyons, Toronto, Canada
Iranians are capable of regime change by themselves as they did 27 years ago. More than 75 percent of Americans are unhappy with their regime. Should any other country attack America to do a regime change in America? Iran has a peaceful nuclear program and is under supervision of IAEA. Iranians have also offered an international partnership with those who are concerned. The superficial crisis that is being build up over Iranian peaceful nuclear program is just another propaganda tool showcasing America's desire for a regime change in Iran for the past 27 years. The more America presses Iran the more resilient Iranians become towards America. Increasing free trade, commerce, cultural exchange and mutual respect with Iran and halting this nonsense embargoes will win the heart and mind of Iranians and they will decide if and when to do a regime change on their own. Mr Bolton is a politically bankrupt person like many others in the US administration that needs to be forgotten.
Fonz, Ottawa,
neocon John Bolton has a new war for your children to fight. Quick, go right down to you local recruiting office and sign-up.
Tim, Tampa, USA
The oppression the Iranian people suffer under now is lightyears beyond anything under the Shah. The madmen ruling Iran at this time will stop at nothing to bring about the apocalypse known as the return of the 12th imam.
If Bolton or anyone else is intelligent enough to think of a way to stop the madmen before it is too late, they should do so very soon.
Al Fin, Seattle, USA
More bluster from a pasty white guy who had his chance to fight another war he loved, Vietnam, but went scurrying behind his mommy's skirts like Bush, Cheney and the list goes on and on...
These people are a stain on civilization. If there were any justice in the world, they would be sentenced to working in the children's ward of a hospital in Baghdad the emptying bed pans the rest of their lives.
Bryan Miller, Telluride, CO usa
No matter what regime is in power in Teheran, they will want to develop nuclear weapons. This is to balance the 300 or so Israeli nukes and the nuclear-armed US.
Deterrence works and preventive aggression doesn't. Besides, the Administration needs to get real; the troops aren't there for a war with Iran. Guided missiles and bombs won't do much.
War on Iran will take a draft, decades of guerrilla war, and tens of trillions of dollars, and not even that may do it.
Bolton is in need of professional help, and so is his boss. Threatening the world is not working.
Tikhon Gilson, Lakewood, WA
Iran is a long way from threatening anybody with nuclear weapons. For one thing, they are a signatory to the NonProliferation Treaty and have inspectors and cameras onsite. Who gets to decide which countries can have a nuclear deterrent? Who gets to decide which can't be trusted with a nuke? Unfortunately, evidence has shown that the United Nations Charter is not much good in preventing your country from being attacked by a more powerful one, but nukes are. So they will be sought.
BTW, Dianne Foster's first post is excellent.
J. Wolfe, Calgary, AB
Personally I think the US and GW Bush should step back and leave Iran alone. According to other articles on Various sites such as the Internation Atomic Energy Commissions official website and Globalsecurity.org there is "NO PROOF" that Iran is trying to create Nuclear weapons.
All Bush and the Imperialistic Its our way or No way Americans are attempting to do is put another puppet regime in Iran and his fathers oil company in control of more of the worlds oil.
Dan laurin, Windsor Ontario, Canada
i live in iran.
ahmadinejad may not say politically that death to america and israel(england,france,...in the past) but the other mullahs say it.
we live in iran.they force children to say death to usa and israel in schools.ask your embassador in iran.
mullah only think about power not god not human right,not iran country and not iranian people.
iraninan people think that the opposition of the west with iran is only because of nuclear weapon and west does not mind human rights in iran.
mullah kills everyone that opposes them.now if they can,they will find me and send me to prison.in your oponion it is a joke but in iran it is a real situation.it is simple if one person opposes mullahs then they say he opposes god and ....
iranian people.
iranian people think that their life is more important than oil for your cars so please leave the business with mullahs.please opposes them first because of human rights,second for nuclear issues.
from iran,mashhad
iman, mashhad,
The simple problem that the non-English speaking world have with Washington is not so much the excesses of its ploicy-makers, but the sheer ignorance and blind arrogance of them, that are so difficult to get oneself free from. It is the case of nineteenth century style politics of viewing the adversary, whoever that might be,is it not ? Vietnam, Cambodia, South &Central America Sub-Saharan Africa, and finally, the entire Middle East, and so the name goes on: every bit of it is infested with death-ridden fingerprints of those policy- makers in Washington; past and present. Who are expantionists? Surely, it can not be Iranians. The enemies of Iranian people have basically two choices: either they start a full-blown military campaign against that country or they should simply to shut up and let Iranians to get on with developing their country as their rights. The choice is theirs to make.
Mata Bakhtiar, Hitchin, United Kingdom
It is not always possible to choose between good and bad .
In this situation (iranian nuclear issue)world should choose between war(bad)and worse(iran having nuclear weapon).
I live in Iran.
Please when you are going the third sanction ,say mullah that
it is first for human rights(killing iranian people)and second for nuclear issue.
I am a 27 years old boy in iran.
Do u think oil is more important than iranian people so please leave the business with mullahs.
Mullahs are playing USA,EU russia and china.
russia and china should blame themselves becasue all of their opposition with sanction is beacuse money and oil.
Issueing a watery sanction is worse than not issueing it.
China and Russia are ready so that EU issue a powerful sanction against iran and then China and russia are going to develop their business with iran privately.
war is the only chioce,although I know that I amybe kill in this war.
iman, mashhad,
Mr. Bolton does not have to think about the grisly consequences of his chess moves. He apparently has no experience in military service himself. He seems to have no understanding of geography either. No, he is a jumped-up little opportunist who owes his position and his pulpit to his willingness to support military aggression by the US, supposedly in the interest of world-wide security. He might be perfectly happy in a world permanently engaged in the sort of psychodrama playing nonstop in his head, but some of us still believe in civilization. Who will win out? So far, too, just about everything his side have done has been nothing but to destabilize and to sow the seeds of revenge. I'm sure he thinks he is doing things in someone's best interest (whether or not he is). The question is - whose?
Dianne Foster, Newton, MA, USA
"Live and learn" or "Live and lose", you get to decide.
What I've lived (and learned) is that when somebody says that they are going to do something dangerous, if left to their own devices, the propensity to do so is too great of a risk.
Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel, even at a cost of sacrificing itself (via retaliation). We (the civilized world) would be foolish to ignore this threat.
Dean A. Nash, Shenzhen, China
warmongerers like bolton should be in jail. the only time countries will go to war is when politicians like bolton have failed miserably. how much longers are we willing to listen to loosers like him before we start holding them accountable for their lies ? time for another nuremberg trial.
robert fisher, kelowna, canada
Amazing - more fear about America doing the right thing that there is of Iran having access to nuclear weapons - definitely a WRONG thing. Perhaps your priorities are a wee bit out of kilter.
Suzy, Central, Texas
The US already did "regime change" in Iran when they overthrew the Ayatollah and put the Shah in his place back in the 50s. The Shah brutally suppressed dissent. During Carter's 4 years the Iranians overthrew the Shah and brought the Ayatollah back. Naturally Middle East countries want nuclear weapons--Israel has been making nukes since the 60s. Pres. John Kennedy tried to stop Israel, sent US inspectors to Dimona, but Israelis lied to him. Sealed up, seven stories down, they were making nukes. They pretended all they wanted was "nuclear power." Kennedy was killed for his efforts. Read: FINAL JUDGMENT by Michael Collins Piper (available from American Free Press newspaper or online used book stores for the truth about Israel and its nukes.
Rose Robinson, Simpson,
1. Iran is a big country full of mountains.
2. How many places do the Americans want to invade ?
They claim the right to kidnap anyone from any country in the world including Britain- Obama wanted to invade Pakistan (an ally). North Korea next ? Venezuela ? Cuba ?
mark francis, London,
Compromise is not an option is been the philosophy of people like Bolton for a very long time. The first option is force, and very little effort is made even to get possible allies to go along with this option. The rulers of America are always right, do not need to consider the interests or preferences of any other nation or power, and all this rests on American power being stronger than any other. The only problem with this approach is that if American power declines even a little when everything is based upon force, what then?
Christopher Hobe Morrison, Pine Bush, Ulster County, NY, USA