Tim Reid in Washington
We've made some changes
to The Sunday Times

Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and has not restarted it since, a stunning new assessment released yesterday by intelligence agencies in the United States has found.
The findings contradict an assessment by US intelligence officials two years ago that Tehran was seeking nuclear weapons and appear to undercut President Bush’s repeated warnings about Iran becoming a nuclear power.
As recently as August Mr Bush warned that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology could lead to a holocaust and that the US “will confront this danger before it is too late”. In October he said that a nuclear-armed Iran could lead to a third world war.
Last night, however, Mr Bush’s closest aides claimed that the finding was vindication for the White House’s muscular but diplomatic approach. Stephen Hadley, Mr Bush’s National Security Advisor, said that the White House was only told last week about the new assessment of Iran’s nuclear programme.
The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report — the consensus view of all 16 US intelligence agencies — says that Iran continues to enrich uranium, which means it might be able to develop a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015 if it restarts its weapons programme. It also said that Iran’s ultimate goal is still to develop the capability to produce a nuclear weapon.
But it adds: “Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons programme suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.” Two years ago the NIE stated with “high confidence” that Iran was pursuing the nuclear bomb.
Yesterday’s report said that Iran’s ultimate intentions about acquiring a nuclear weapon are unclear, but that Tehran’s decisions “are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.
“Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might, if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons programme.”
The assessment comes five years after the release of another report by the NIE which claimed that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons and was pursuing the nuclear bomb. The report was one of the main pieces of evidence used by the White House to justify the invasion of Iraq.
It also comes amid a presidential campaign in which the issue of Iran has eclipsed Iraq as the most pressing foreign policy challenge facing the US. Several leading Republican candidates have been bellicose on the issue.
The report addresses claims by President Ahmadinejad of Iran that Tehran has 3,000 centrifuges enriching uranium. It says that Iran might have the centrifuges, but is having difficulties in making them work.
Mr Hadley said: “It [the report] confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. The intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem.
“It suggests the President has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate.”
Last month the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear watchdog, reported that Iran was operating 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges. But it said it was unclear if Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapon.
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Halt or more likely "suspend?"
I daresay, no nation on earth would halt the clandestine development a nuclear weapon if its possession gave them a significant military or negotiating advantage. In Ahmadenijad's case, I doubt there's any question that Iran is still pushing ahead with nuclear weapons development activities. Simply pursuing enrichment activities for "civilian" use is proof of that.
Only a fool or a liberal could possibly be that ignorant of human wiles and motivations as to self-blind oneself into accepting this report at its literal face value.
Bush did the world a favor by establishing beachheads on both the east and west of Iran. This move gave the Iranians pause for thought. They were / are afraid that they'd be next after Iraq. For Iran's perpetual support of terrorism, radical Islam, and for fomenting terrorism against UN forces in Iraq, I say damn if the government of Iran shouldn't be next.
Scott, Durham, NC, USA
The NIE is already discredited. It's what the blog analysts do best.
This NIE turns out to have been written at the State Dept
based on one individual who was not even interviewed
by the USA. Basing any op-eds on this NIE will just
make them look foolish. A political hatchet job as transparently
false as that Wilson Niger report.
The one thing I immediately notice is that Israel is not taking
a blind bit of notice and will act in their own time.
Who would you trust more - the "CIA" or Mossad?
It's not even really a contest, is it?
(if your reporters are interested, a good blog analyst
is http://strata-sphere.com/blog )
Dave M., london, USA / UK
Peace in our time, right?
gb, Austin, USA
I wish these people who keep bringing up appeasement would read a history book.
Hitler annexed Austria. Bush attacked Afganistan. The world said "Maybe he's got a point". Who did Iran attack?
Hitler attacked Czechoslovakia. Bush attacked Iraq. The world said "That's not right but we want peace." Who did Iran attack?
Hitler kept saber rattling, threatening Poland and others. Bush kept saber rattling, threatening Iran and others. The world said "Things are getting bad but we want peace." Now we find out Iran isn't even trying to build any nuclear sabers, let alone rattle them.
Hitler attacked Poland with the greatest military the world had ever seen. World War II started. Germany was destroyed. Bush attacks Iran and ...???
And still there are people who think Iran is the problem. Are these people completely ignorant of history, completely clueless about what appeasement really means?
leopold, Dallas, Texas, US
I totally agree with Peter Lewin's entry that Bush "suddenly" coming to this view is definetely suspect. Does not make sense. Much more is going on
Saignonaise
F. McAndrew, Saignon, france
What amazes me is how easily placated some people are when it comes to dealing with tyrants and madmen.
Peace in our time, right?
gb, Austin, USA
More worrying than this is the state in Pakistan. Corruption is at its highest as the leader of the country has decided to take matters into his own hands. But whilst the country loses grip on its leader maybe it will lose its grip on the nuclear weapons they have? Just a thought.......
steve, London, uk
This looks like a pre-emptive move by 16 intelligence agencies to head off the Cheney inspired plan to bomb Iran. This is significant, because these agencies rarely agree with each other about anything. It's doubly significant because the Generals, in as diplomatic a way as possible, a couple of weeks ago basically told the Commander In Chief that there was not going to be a War on Iran. There is a very significant realignment of power going on here, and poor Bush hasn't got the slightest idea what's happening.
RichC, Boston, MA
The C.I.A, the NSA & the state department protecting their butts...nothing else....
clay , NY , NY
One can only conclude all the warmongering from Israeli-US apologists has been on no evidence. So why were diplomats in UN kowtowing to these people and preparing to impose sanctions?
Jonathan, Auckland, New Zealand
I prefer to take notice of President Ahmadinejad own exclamations that nobody will stop his country from enriching Uranium (for what?) and that my postage stamp country should be blown off the map.
Avraham Makeler, Rehovot, Israel
make up your mind US. Jim
jim, donegal, ireland
YIKES -- The Dec 10 cover of Macleans magazine (for which Barbara Amiel writes) asks, "Is it time to bomb Iran?"
Now that this intelligence information has come to light, I guess that the sensible answer would be most definitely NOT!
Dec 10... hmmmm. what else is notable about that date?
Robert Miller, Halifax, Canada
After Iraq, how can anyone believe what we are to0ld by US intelligence? The terms 'US' and 'intelligence' seem totally contradictory when placed in sequence.
David, Uzes, France
There was always going to be a certain inevitability about the comments to this report. Because, whichever way the report went, there would be some antiBush rhetoric.
If the report said that Iran was continuing its nuclear program, commenters would claim that it was all a setup to justify a Bush war on Iran.
If the report said, as it did, that Iran has dropped its weapons program, the commenters would say that it proves Bush wrong.
The point is, no matter which way the report goes, its not possible for Bush to be right.
William McIlhagga, Ilkley,
First you see a nuclear weapons program and now you don't.
It's the way Bush and Blair Pen and Teller'ed it.
What can you believe their Ye Olde Worlde Pork Pie Factory
K. Urban, London, UK
Muscular diplomacy from muscle brain people.
Tony Chavez, London, UK
In the light of global warming I think every country should have access to nuclear technology, as a stop gap until alternative energy really comes on tap.
If Iran had nuclear weapons wouldn't the M.A.D principle apply still, say in the case of Israel. If it was good enough for us in the cold war why wouldn't it apply anymore? unless the whole cold war was bogus .
Keith Bentham, Wigan, Lancashire
So what"s new?.
Dirty Dick, Taunton, UK
A Nobel Peace prize for President Bush? Now there's a moral travesty for you.
Mayadeva, London, Canada
Ah, but do they have any shiny, pointy things that might be called rockets?
KR, Stockport,
Let`s see what will happened.
eagle, Tianjin, CHINA
Thank goodness for this report, now Bush can claim victory after all this sabre-rattling and not get himself into another war that he cannot win. The problems he has in Iraq maybe what can save Iran from the same fate.
Michael, Christchurch, New Zealand
michael tindall, Christchurch, new zealand
Presumably, this is the US intelligence services protecting themselves from the sort of public manipulation that went on over the invasion of Iraq. They were left then with a lot of egg on their faces over their failure to rein in Bush's public statements, exaggerations and falsehoods. Now, the CIA et al. have gone public to prevent a deja-vu over Iran: Dick Cheney and friends must be so disappointed in this newly-found accountability to the US (and also the world) public.
Martin Baldwin-Edwards, Athens, Greece
Heartening to see that those who loudly derided what US Intelligence evaluated four years ago, now regard them as being the font of all knowledge. Read the report and take in what it says, a clue can be seen in the "Heading" for this article:
"Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003, US agencies say"
Now if that report had stated that Iran had renounced its nuclear weapons programme that would mean something, halted merely suggests that it can be restarted at anytime in the future.
Bill, Stavanger, Norway
Oh dear. That's torn it.
Ubi, Edinburgh, UK
This report will make it easy for Mr Bush to talk to Iran, and get Iran's help to make peace in the Middle East before Mr Bush leave office, then he might get the Nobel Peace Prize. Smart Mr Bush.
mohsen, malaga, spain
Bush has "suddenly" come to this view?
Does not make sense. Much more is going on
Peter Lewin, Northwood, Middlesex
Bush is going to declare victory. This is proof that his plan of waiting two or three years after they stopped and then threatening war actually worked. We're so fortunate to have a Republican as President of the United States who can achieve such great victories simply by taking into account the past.
leopold, Dallas, Texas, US
And our "beloved" president causes our credibility to sink even a bit lower in the world...
jp, charlotte, nc, usa
Muscular diplomacy will not work and is only designed for myopic short term foreign policy.
Chayan, London
I don't think it has anything at all to do with any sort of foreign policy, short or long term. The Bushies aren't really that interested in foreign anything. They are mainly interested domestic policy in America, in amassing unlimited power for themselves by creating a vast threat that only they can protect us all from. Then they will go about what they are really interested in, looting the world and distributing the spoils to their friends and relatives who are capable of helping them gain even more power and wealth. The ideology is there, but it is mostly a smoke screen.
Christopher Hobe Morrison, Pine Bush, Ulster County, NY, USA
Bush has "suddenly" come to this view?
Does not make sense. Much more is going on
Peter Lewin, Northwood, Middlesex
I can hear President Ahmadinejad saying "I told you. I told you - see".
Shoukat, London, UK
It seems that the Bush/Cheney junta has been lying
to us about WMDs in Iran. Who would ever think they would do something like that???????
Bruce L. Northwood, Washington, D.C., USA
We do not have a need for nuclaer weapons. We are determined to have a civilian nuclear programme including the fuel cycle. These are
the assertions made by Iran. The US intelligence reports support this assertion. So what next, the Iranians should not train any chemists and the should not have any microbioligists because they too can make chemical and biological weapons. So where does our demand end and where do we go from here ? Muscular diplomacy will not work and is only designed for myopic short term foreign policy. The focus should now be to engage with Iran and to vigorously pursue democratic change.
This will require a regime change and the regime in Iran is much more exposed and ready to be toppled than most people think. To go down this path, we must ask the chinese to stay home as this is a value beyond their comprehension.
The focus for change must directly and deliberately select the regime leaders and expose their corrupt and criminal ways. This is not intereference
Chayan, London, UK