Tom Baldwin in Washington
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Britain and France, President Bush’s chief European allies, fear that last week’s US intelligence report stating that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons programme will be “counter-productive” in securing tighter UN sanctions against the Tehran regime.
A draft Security Council resolution being discussed yesterday by officials from the US, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany would extend punitive measures - including travel bans and the seizure of assets - to the 15,000-strong Quds force, as well as dozens of named individuals.
Although the document does not go as far as the US Administration - which recently imposed sweeping sanctions against the entire 125,000-member Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Quds Force, and three banks - it would represent a significant escalation in the diplomatic pressure being exerted on Iran.
European diplomatic sources in Washington said yesterday that they were mystified at the timing of last week’s publication of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which declared that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons programme four years ago.
Britain’s own intelligence is understood to put more emphasis on Iran’s continuing efforts to make highly enriched uranium – the key material needed for a nuclear bomb – and suggests that any weapons programme could be restarted at relatively short notice.
London is nonetheless encouraged that the NIE’s publication effectively takes military options off the table.
Key figures such as Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, and Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, are also said to be keen to counter the bellicose language coming from more hawkish colleagues.
One official suggested that publication of the NIE document may have had more to do with internal battles within the US Administration or an intelligence community still shaken from its failures to anticipate 9/11, or discover the truth about Iraq’s missing weapons of mass destruction.
However, another well-placed diplomatic source said: “What has this achieved? They did not need to put the NIE out last week. The danger is that this has made it much harder to get Russia and China to sign up for a new resolution [at the UN] and that in ten years’ time Iran is more likely, not less, to have nuclear weapons.”
President Sarkozy of France is said to be particularly determined that the NIE report does not lead the international community “down a cul-de-sac”.
Kurt Volker, a senior official at the US State Department, told The Times yesterday that the Bush Administration and its European allies “remained focused” on getting a fresh UN resolution. Iran, he said, continues to develop highly enriched uranium and a delivery system through missile technology. “Weaponisation can come back at any time and we think the risk remains very high,” he said.
Asked why the NIE report was published last week, he said: “You cannot risk sitting on intelligence information. We cannot risk the accusation that we are manipulating intelligence for political reasons.”
Mr Volker suggested that the NIE report should not be seen as a “cause for comfort” by Security Council members such as Russia and China which are thought to be unwilling to support stronger sanctions against Iran. “Those who are dragging their feet,” he said, “are doing so because they want to drag their feet.”
Yesterday President Ahmadinejad of Iran hailed last week’s intelligence report as “a positive step” that could help to end decades of enmity between his country and the West.
“If they take one or two more such steps, the issues will be totally changed and . . . the way will be paved for the resolution of regional and bilateral issues,” he told a news conference.
The US report
— Iran halted its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 and, as of mid-2007, had not restarted it
— The programme was halted in response to international pressure
— Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon by late 2009, but this is unlikely; 2010-15 is more likely
— It still faces significant problems operating the centrifuges needed to make enriched uranium
— Iran may have imported some weapons-grade fuel but not enough to make a weapon
— Any production of highly enriched uranium for weapons would probably take place at a covert facility, not a declared site
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It is Iranâs independence that is a source of humiliation for Arab rulers in the eyes their subjects, Therefore a danger to western world energy supplies. Thatâs all
Nap, las Vegas,
According to the Wall Street Journal, a National Council of Resistance of Iran report concludes that twenty-one commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps are the top scientists running Iran's current secret nuke program. The report also states that the development is broken up among a large number of sites, many of which have not been visisted by IAEA represntatives, and that while the program was shut down in 2003, it was restarted in 2004.
So, what is the reality? I doubt military commanders in hot pursuit of the bomb give up quite that easily.
Scott, Durham, NC, USA
No let me get this straight.
Instead of rejoicing in the fact that it does not appear that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, these warmongers in London and DC "...fear that last weekâs US intelligence report stating that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program will be âcounter-productiveâ in securing tighter UN sanctions against the Tehran regime."?
Forgive me, but why attempt to invoke sanctions when there's no nuclear weapons program to begin with?
The US and UK had to understand that this was going to be a non-starter to begin with, even without the NIE report, because Russia and China would never go along with this.
And with Russia having publicly stated that any attack on Iran will be interpreted as an attack against Russia, which sane government leaders really wants to go to war with Russia?
Michael Riviero, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
So if the NIE report states that Iran is Not developing nuclear weapons,we should be glad to hear it, why would anyone worry about ¨future sanctions¨
mark, Almeria , Spain
Whenever somebody has many reasons for doing something, they really have no reason. The US hostility towards Iran is not fully rational. Some of it is vengeance for the 1979-1980 hostages drama; some of it may be sheer bloody-mindedness on the part of the Cheney clique.
I hope China and Russia veto tighter sanctions. The less evidence of Iran's "evil," the more eager the Bush Administration and its new sidekick, the Sarkozy government, are to attack. If I were a developing country, I would try to get a nuclear weapon quickly, to deter a US attack.
Tikhon Gilson, Lakewood, WA
No doubt that Iran along with developing U235 or Pu239 for nuclear power stations extract disintegrating nuclear fuel for nuclear weapons as well. The consequences can be easily predicted and followed up...
Victor, Moscow,
Hmmm..
So the report from the National Council of Iran disclosing that Iran restarted its clandestine nuclear program is wrong?
Scott, Durham, NC, USA