After praying for his victory at an Iowa Christian Alliance meeting, a stout
Midwestern woman approached Mike Huckabee, whispering that she would like
him to sign her Bible.
The prospective Republican presidential candidate obliged, of course, stooping
forward to write his name in ballpoint pen. And then he added, underneath,
“Philippians 4.13”, saying it was his favourite verse.
Flo Brinkmann, 63, who described herself as a “home-maker”, checked the
reference. “Yes, as I thought,” she said: “ I can do
all things through Christ who strengthens me.”
Moments such as this on Thursday have marked out Mr Huckabee as the “real
deal” for the evangelical conservatives – especially women, who will account
for as much as 45 per cent of the 70,000 or so Republican voters in the Iowa
caucuses on January 3.
“Our core beliefs are the same,” said Mrs Brinkmann, explaining why the
meeting had finally persuaded her to back him. “Mitt Romney seemed a nice
person when I met him, but I think Mike Huckabee really knows and trusts
God.”
The ordained Baptist pastor has indeed done much – and been strengthened by
Christians – during the past couple of months, when polls showed him surging
from single-digit support to the front of the pack in Iowa, the first state
on the nomination calendar. Recent surveys also show him edging ahead in
another early state, South Carolina, and neck and neck with Rudy Giuliani
nationally.
But many hurdles will have to be overcome if he is to win the Republican
nomination. New Hampshire, which holds a key primary election on January 8,
has far fewer churchgoers and Mr Huckabee is currently languishing a distant
fourth.
His campaign advisers cheerfully admit that they are flying on little more
than a wing and a prayer, while others suggest that he lacks the money or
the organisation to sustain his challenge.
Nor has he closed the deal in Iowa yet. The Christian Alliance meeting in a
basement of a home furnishings centre in a fog-bound Cedar Rapids hinted at
doubts harboured by these voters – or at least their friends and neighbours
– towards his candidacy.
He faced no questions on issues such as abortion or gay marriage that have for
so long defined America’s Religious Right. Instead, he was asked about
taxation, pensions, the national debt and Iran.
Steve Scheffler, the president of the Iowa Christian Alliance, later
explained: “Most people know where Mike Huckabee is coming from on social
issues. But people of faith are broader-based than that and want to know
about his other policies.”
Some of his positions certainly deserve scrutiny. For instance, Mr Huckabee
supports radical proposals for replacing all federal income tax with a
national sales levy, which many economists believe will increase deficits.
The Christian Alliance meeting listened intently as he told them how the
scheme would make honest sinners out of the “drug dealers, prostitutes, and
gamblers” by making them pay the sales tax on their purchases like everyone
else. On pensions, elderly evangelicals laughed nervously as he promised he
did not support the extermination of over65s to save money.
He also had to wriggle a little over an article published last week in which
he attacked the Bush Administration’s “arrogant bunker mentality” on foreign
policy, remarks later dismissed by Condoleezza Rice as “ludicrous”. On
Thursday, he avoided any direct mention of the President.
His difficulty on such issues reflects how his rapid ascent to the top tier is
straining the Republicans’ already fragile coalition of security hawks,
fiscal and social conservatives.
The evangelicals have become used to wielding significant – if not always
decisive – influence on nomination contests since 1980. But, for people who
preach so hard against promiscuity, this time around they showed a
previously unsuspected disposition for serial-flirting with the candidates.
The first suitor was George Allen, before his career was wrecked when he got
caught making an apparently racist remark. Next came Mr Romney, who
struggled to prove he had not two-timed them by supporting abortion and gay
rights in the past – or deal fully with their fear of his Mormon faith. Fred
Thompson also dallied with their affections before he got rejected for being
old, lazy and turning up late by not announcing his candidacy until
September.
By October, some had given up and were talking about backing an independent.
Others were braced for an unholy alliance with Mr Giuliani, who supports
abortion and gay rights. But then Mr Huckabee – previously so far behind
nobody had really noticed him – arrived with a speech that sent volts
through the “Values Voters” summit in Washington.
The subsequent enthusiasm for him has not been shared by all, or even most,
leaders of the Religious Right.
Some have never forgiven the former Arkansas governor for siding with liberals
in the Southern Baptist schisms of the 1970s, others distrust his record on
tax and spending, while still more think that he was soft on law and order
or the treatment of illegal immigrants. But the evangelical movement is no
longer as homogeneous as it once was, nor so disciplined that it will be
told what to do by its old officer class. Mr Huckabee appeals to those who
are increasingly interested in issues such as poverty, climate change –
preserving “God’s creation” – or Darfur and Aids in Africa.
And when the conservative Weekly Standard attacks him for being
“dramatically out of step with the Republican Party” on every issue save
abortion and gay marriage, Mr Huckabee appears to relish the role of
religious populist, emphasising his own humble background. In a TV interview
yesterday, he said: “The Republican Party needs to represent not just the
people on Wall Street but also the people on Main Street.”
Mr Huckabee has compared the success of his shoestring campaign to the parable
of the loaves and fishes, relishing the role of an underdog in the face of
increasingly strident negative attack adverts from rivals in Iowa. On
Thursday, he claimed Mr Romney had outspent him 20 to 1 – “if we win, it
will be a miracle”.
He protests his innocence when charged with playing to prejudice against Mr
Romney – asking in a magazine interview if Mormons believe “Jesus and the
Devil are brothers” – or exploiting his faith by using a subliminal
“floating cross” in his Christmas TV advert.
But on some occasions his language jars with his sunny evangelical persona.
Asked about his TV ad, he replied mockingly, saying: “If you play this spot
backwards it says ‘Paul is dead, Paul is dead, Paul is dead’.” This was a
reference to occult conspiracy theories about The Beatles’ drug-inspired White
Album: a strangely dark remark for Pastor Mike.
Huck lines
“Pray a little more, work a little harder, save, wait, be patient and, most of
all, live within our means. That’s the American way.”
“And I just want to remind everybody when all the old hippies find out that
they get free drugs [on Medicare], just wait until what that’s going to cost
out there” – on rising social security costs.
“Like my pastor used to tell me, when they’re kicking you in the rear, it’s
proving you’re still out front.” Sources: Times archives, CNN, New York
Times.
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Across the Pond, our US elections blog
