THE New Hampshire primary on January 8, a week after the Iowa caucus, could be the decider for the Republican candidates. It is there that Senator John McCain hopes to revive his fortunes and Mitt Romney may make his last stand.

McCain is touring the “granite state” this weekend in the Straight Talk Express, a cheaper version of the plush coach that was commissioned before his campaign used up his funds and left him for dead last summer.

The Arizona senator has revived in the polls for the same reason that he was the original frontrunner. He remains the most popular Republican with Democrats and swing voters for his war hero status, his independent voting streak and his original support for the Iraq war, coupled with robust criticism of the way it was pursued.

However, he still faces the same hurdles with Republican activists, who mistrust his liberal views on issues such as immigration and believe that he likes the liberal media better than them. This time, independents in New Hampshire – who are allowed to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary – may flock to Barack Obama’s banner.

Even at 71, McCain has proved that he has energy and staying power, but he needs Obama to lose in Iowa in order to attract independents to the Republican vote.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, had been counting on handsome wins in Iowa and New Hampshire to catapult him to victory elsewhere. The strategy was working nicely – despite some embarrassing flip-flops along the way – until the resurgent Mike Huckabee, the former pastor and governor of Arkansas, spoilt his calculations.

Romney, a Mormon and a multi-millionaire, has spent more than $80m on the race so far, including $17m of his own money, to boost his standing among Republicans in the early voting states; yet his double-digit poll lead in New Hampshire has fallen to 5% in recent weeks. To add to his woes, McCain has just “leaked” a television commercial listing Romney’s flip-flops on such issues as abortion and gun control to Slate magazine, gaining it an instant airing on the internet for free.

In the face of Huckabee’s unexpected challenge for the votes of social conservatives, Romney’s camp now says that he does not need to win the Iowa caucus. But if he loses in New Hampshire, he is finished.

Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, is basing his unorthodox strategy for victory on losing both Iowa and New Hampshire, while cleaning up in big states such as Florida, California and New Jersey later. It could (just) work. But he must come at least third in Iowa and New Hampshire to avoid being written off as a loser.

Fred Thompson, the Hollywood actor and former senator for Tennessee, has been notable for his languid campaigning pace. One of Thompson’s most enthusiastic backers in New Hampshire defected to McCain recently after concluding that Thompson lacked the will to win.

The “Fredheads” – the energetic fans who drafted Thompson into the campaign – have gone quiet, although some believe that he could still pull off a surprise victory in the south if Huckabee loses his charm with social conservatives.

Times Recommends

• No apology for Germany’s own Nazi victims
• Intricate web of fear and hope tying down deal
• Victims remembered a year after Mumbai attacks