Tim Reid in Iowa City and Tom Baldwin in Des Moines
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Read the US elections blog: Across the Pond
Mitt Romney is hemmed in on all sides by a crush of Iowans eating burgers and cameramen jostling for position, while he tries to edge his way past steaming plates of fried food to the centre of the diner.
He climbs on a chair, grabs a microphone, and swivelling from one part of the crowd to another, rushes through a truncated version of his stump speech, a simple menu of Ronald Reagan, values, patriotism and strong families. He shakes hands, signs autographs, grins a lot, and then jumps back on to the MittMobile campaign bus and on to the next event. He has been at the Hamburg Inn café in Iowa City for 25 minutes.
Mr Romney is a man constantly looking in different directions these days. Having spent millions of dollars of his own fortune to establish himself as the unassailable Republican candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire — the first two presidential nominating states — he is now locked in an increasingly ugly battle on both fronts, against two different rivals.
Unlike the Democratic presidential race, which is focused this week on the three-way battle in Iowa between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, the Republican contest has become an unpredictable two-pronged affair. Mr Romney, who is seeking to become America’s first Mormon president, is fighting Mike Huckabee for supremacy in Iowa and the resurgent John McCain in New Hampshire. The situation is forcing Republicans to shift their attentions from one snow-bound state to another, amid a flurry of attack ads.
Only two days before Iowa kicks off the nominating process, three polls suggest that Mr Romney has regained the initiative after losing his his lead to Mr Huckabee in November. He has clawed back to parity with the former Arkansas Governor after unleashing a barrage of negative advertising that he insisted was simply “pointing out our differences”.
Mr Huckabee, who has stumbled under the sudden glare of the front-runner’s spotlight, responded by accusing Mr Romney of running a “very desperate and frankly a dishonest campaign”.
Mr Huckabee, a Baptist minister whose surge in Iowa was based on the support of Christian evangelicals, acknowledged that Mr Romney’s attacks had hurt him. But he has also suffered from self-inflicted wounds, particularly on foreign policy, his greatest vulnerability. He expressed “our sincere apologies” after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, before warning that America was in grave danger from Pakistanis entering the country as illegal immigrants.
Last night Mr Huckabee ordered his staff to pull an advertisement attacking Mr Romney - but only after it had been delivered to stations. Then, at a press conference, he played it for reporters anyway, a move that attracted widespread derision.
In New Hampshire, which votes five days after Iowa, polls place a rejuvenated Mr McCain in a statistical tie with Mr Romney. Mr McCain, who has fought his way back into contention after his campaign fell apart in July, is airing a commercial that highlights two newspaper “anti-endorsements” of Mr Romney, including one by the Concord Monitor calling him a phony. He says it was in response to attacks by Mr Romney on his record.
United by their common foe, Mr Huckabee and Mr McCain are also defending each other against Mr Romney. “I felt like when Mitt Romney went after the integrity of John McCain, he crossed the line,” Mr Huckabee said. “John McCain is a hero to me.” Mr McCain said: “He’s attacking Huckabee, who’s a good man.”
The bitter exchanges between Republicans are a function of an extraordinarily tight race that has had three different candidates leading opinion polls this month and where five — Mr Romney, Mr Huckabee, Mr McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson — have a realistic chance of winning the nomination.
Mr Giuliani, for a long time the national front-runner, is banking all on victory in Florida on January 29, before the delegate-rich states such as New York and California vote on February 5 — “Super Tuesday”.
A sixth candidate, Ron Paul, is expected to have raised $19 million in the past three months, surpassing most, if not all, of his better-known rivals. The 72-year-old libertarian and his committed band of internet activists could yet propel him to a fourth-place, or even third, finish in Iowa.
The difficulty picking a winner in the Republican contest reflects the growing tension within the party’s combustible coalition of fiscal conservatives, the Religious Right and national security hawks.
However, the biggest cloud hanging over both Democrats and Republicans is the prospect of the New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg stepping into the race as a centrist independent candidate able to fund a billion-dollar campaign from his own deep pockets.
On Sunday he will join Democratic and Republican elder statesmen for discussions about ending the gridlock between the two parties that characterises Washington politics.
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I am a recent convert to the republican side of presidential politicks. I am also a Mormon. I have been a rebal in the most republican state in the U.S. If there is even the slightes implication of foule play due to religios bigotry, I'm will be out of here, and I don't think I will be alone.
blaine calyton, Salt lake , Ut.
I really dont see why more people don't take notice of Ron Paul. He is the only candidate who seems to care about derailing America from the road of financial doom, and getting out of that extremely unpopular and pointless war in Iraq (which seems to be a usefull Al Qaeda recruiting tool). Note that no other candidate, democrat or republican, actually opposed the war in Iraq pre-invasion, and have flip-flopped since. If i was American, which i'm not, i would certainly vote for Paul in the primaries. Otherwise, it'll just be a case of voting for the lesser of two evils.
Steve, S. Wales, UK
I hope people can see how disingenuous Huckabee is. How many ways can you slam and slander and still claim to be the victim. That and the few times he actually talks about politics (instead of how he's such a great Christian, unlike anyone else) he puts his foot even further in his mouth. I would much rather here a candidate slam a candidate on his politics then his religion. If he truely wants to learn how to take the high road watch Senator McCain who says I'm not going there and actually trys to bring political into the discussion. Govenor Huckabee at least own up to your political smear campaign and quit trying to apologize and say oh I didn't say, mean or do that. I'm the good guy.
JoAnn Kurtzweil, Louisville , KY
Mr. Lambert......you need to do the research again. While Congressman Paul is a nominal Republican, he was the Libertarian candidate for President not long ago. He used to tell people he is a Republican congressman because that was the only way he could win the seat.
Joshua, Buckeye, Az/USA
Mr. Romney is the Best Candidate out there and would support him whether he wins or lose in this election. His personal life is a lifelong witness of his strong personal values. I admire him greatly. I wish all husbands and fathers are like him. Women deserve to be treated the way that Mr. Romney treats his sweetheart. His rivals has no business attacking this great man. They attack him because he is surging and being known by more people now whereas before nobody knows who Mr. Mitt Romney is. Mr. Romney is my HERO. I have his bumper sticker on the back of my van and I have to clean my van more often now to be worthy of his name on there.
CAROLINE, Redlands, CA
Marc, John since the days of FDR and all his social programs we have had a national debt with few exceptions. Given that we have created a very polarised america over the past four decades, we are so busy with democrats looking for the second coming of" Water Gate" (they make the jews look like pikers in comparison) The republicans couldn't handle success after their resurgance,....The USA like it or not are the main stabilising force on this planet. All that being said we as a nation have denigraded into a nation who has outspent our resources, taken up a defeatest attitude, allowed too many illegals,continue to give away too much to other countries in graft, foriegn aid and, sticking our noses in other countries business. Even our countrys own Budget Office has stated we are on the brink of insolvency, so as we progress towards the inevitable melt down and the disdain we have for our elected officials, we will overlook you comment on the surplus as simply a matter of exotic account
John Christen..., Salt Lake City, Utah
Forget the distinction between Libertarians and Republicans, most Ron Paul supporters are what I would call Contrarians. They like Paul because he's the anti-candidate. They don't care about politics. They like being able to say they're for somebody different. They really don't care what Paul says as long as he says it. I doubt most of them will even vote.
On another topic, I don't see why any of the candidates would consider dropping out after Iowa or New Hampshire. To what end? To be polite? Most have invested a year or better seeking their nominations, what have they got to lose by hanging in a while? If money gets tight, just cut back on ads and staff. McCain did that earlier and survived, and is now looking like a real contender again.
Frankly, I'd like to see ALL of the major candidates stay in the race regardless of what happens in the next week. Give this phony hoopla surrounding Iowa and New Hampshire a collective nose-thumbing!
gb, Austin, USA
Errm Marc, the only reason Ron Paul has been able to raise so much money is because people like his message so much. A lot of the money he has raised has been from small, individual donations to "money bombs" NOT organised by his campaign!
Also, Paul has never voted for an unbalenced budget in his 10 years at Congress, and is one of the strongest fiscal conservatives is the race.
Alastair, London, UK
You have to laugh. So many people have posted, supportive, comments about Ron Paul and these comments are all based upon how much MONEY he can raise.
Oh dear, America, get your act together.
I visit America frequently, I live with an intelligent American. America is a nation of wonderful people who care about far more than money. However, there are some idiots, who seem to bay at the moon.
So, here are some simple facts:: at the end of Clinton's reign, America had a wonderful financial surplus. Now, arriving at the end of Bush's reign, America is incredibly in debt and facing a financial meltdown. This is not good for anyone! However the old, oft repeated, adage still rings true, "Clinton did it to Lewinsky and Bush did it to America.
Ron Paul may be able to raise money for himself but can he make money for America - I think not!
Marc, St. Barths,
Er, could I just point out to the other posters that the article described Ron Paul as a 'libertarian' not a 'Libertarian'? The small 'l' makes a big difference, at least to those of us who know how the English langauge works....
Danny, London,
Ron Paul is a Republican, why are MSM journalists so thick they can't after all this time get it right? Please, do the basic research before you publish because you would learn Ron Paul has been elected as a Republican for 10 terms.
Louis Lambert, Sydney, Australia
I don't think people appreciate the odds that Mr Romney is up against. There are a large number of evangelacles who are just prejudice against his religion (witness every six months larg loud protests at the Mormon general confrence) There are a larg number of secular humanist who are passionate agains any people beliving in a moral value system. These two goups, do no need to be courted they will resist Mr. Romney's efforts to be elected, they will preach to all who will here.
blaine Clayton, Salt Lake, Salt Lake
Let me get this straight - Thompson, who we haven't heard or seen boo about pretty much for the entire campaign has a chance at winning the nomination - but Paul, who the article claims raised more money in the 4th quarter than any other candidate does not? Please.
Need I also mention that Ron Paul is a REPUBLICAN not a Libertarian.
Mary, Hampden, ME
Um, Ron Paul DID raise $19 mill so far this quarter, with a drive on to push it over the $20 mill mark before New Year's day. This figure not only exceeds ALL of his Republican opponents, it is almost double the amount of the second place holder, Rudy Giuliani.
Not only does Ron Paul have a fervent net following, his rallies draw many times more real-life supporters than those of his opponents, often in the thousands. Huckabee, in comparison, had one successful rally that drew 200 - 300. Rudy, McCain, and Fred are lucky to find a dozen or more people somewhere, who are interested in them, and who don't work for one of the media outlets...
If the ballots are counted honestly and accurately, Ron Paul will likely win New Hampshire, and easily place in the top 3 in Iowa. In this video clip, John McCain's campaign co-chair mentions that Ron Paul will likely place higher than the polls might suggest, due to polling limitation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62UiKr_YAmI
Paul, Tempe, AZ, US