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A surging Barack Obama has wiped out Hillary Clinton's once substantial poll lead in the race for the Democratic nomination and is now in a virtual tie nationally with the former first lady, according to a poll released today.
Though Mrs Clinton has regained some momentum since her surprise win in last week's New Hampshire primary, her comeback has failed to halt Mr Obama's rise in the polls on the back of his sweeping victory in the Iowa caucus on January 3.
The one-time presumptive nominee held a 21-point edge over Mr Obama in October, a lead which he had cut to 8 points by December. The latest Reuters/Zogby poll, however, indicates she now leads Mr Obama by just 39 to 38 percent. With the 1-point gap well within the poll's margin of error of 4.7 points, the results mean she can no longer lay claim to frontrunner status.
“This the definition of a hard-fought race,” John Zogby, the pollster, said.
Mr Obama, the young Illinois senator who would be America's first black president, and Mrs Clinton - who hopes to be the first woman in the Oval Office - were effectively deadlocked among a variety of groups, including men, women, Democrats and independents. However Mr Obama commanded a substantial lead of 65 percent to 15 percent among black voters. Taken on Thursday and Friday last week, at the height of a heated row between Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton on Martin Luther King's role in the civil rights movement, the poll indicates that the incident may have damaged her standing among African-Americans.
However in an unexpected turnaround, Mr Obama has all but lost his once commanding lead among voters under age 24, but has leached support from Mrs Clinton among voters aged 55 to 69, normally one of her strengths.
“This is an unbelievably close race at almost every level,” Mr Zogby commented.
John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator and the only other major Democratic contender still in the race, was trailing in a distant third place with 9 percent in the national poll.
On the Republican side, John McCain charged to the front of an increasingly volatile presidential field, soaring past Mike Huckabee and a wilting Rudy Giuliani as the opening contests of the 2008 White House campaign dramatically reshaped the races in both parties. However the poll will not reflect any shift in dynamics following yesterday's Michigan Republican primary, in which Mitt Romney, the former Massachussetts governor, beat Mr McCain by 39 percent to 30 percent. Mr Huckabee came in third with 16 percent.
Mr Romney stormed to victory in Michigan on the back of a promise to revitalise the economically beleaguered state, which, while once the powerhouse of the US automotive industry, now has some of the highest poverty and unemployment rates in the country. The Reuters/Zogby poll found that economic concerns are growing in prevalence among American voters, and suggested that the malaise would increasingly filter their views on the presidential election.
However that is not necessarily good news for Mr Romney's presidential bid, as many voters thought they would be better off with a Democrat in the White House. 20.1 percent said Mrs Clinton would be best for their financial situation, making her the top choice. Some 17.5 percent were unsure, and 13.6 percent picked Mr Obama. Mr McCain led Republicans with just 10.9percent of the vote, followed by Mr Romney at 8 percent.
“We’re no longer waiting for the economy to be the No. 1 (election) issue. It is far and away the issue,” Mr Zogby said.“Democrats have a very simple message on the economy: It stinks. It’s Bush’s fault. A Republican can’t say that.”
Republican voters have now nominated three different candidates in the three state contests so far, leaving no candidate able to claim the advantage in a wide open race.
Democrats also held a primary in Michigan but a dispute over the date of the vote led the national party to strip the state of its delegates to this summer’s presidential nominating convention, leaving the contest meaningless.
The survey found only marginal support for a potential independent candidacy by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has flirted with the idea of a third-party run for the White House while officially denying any interest.
But, after Mrs Clinton's dramatic New Hampshire win confounded pollsters who were predicting a double-digit victory for Mr Obama, it is likely that few pundits will be staking their careers on the latest findings.
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