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President Bush embarks today on his last important trip to Europe, a six-day swing that will include a dinner with Gordon Brown and a meeting with the Queen at Windsor Castle.
The visit comes as many in Western Europe, including its leaders, are already looking past Mr Bush and focusing their attention instead on the race for his successor, and at a time when his influence at home and abroad is waning. Yet he arrives with relations in better shape than at any time since the lead-up to the Iraq War, and still believes that he can achieve progress on issues such as Afghanistan, Iran, the Middle East and trade.
Mr Bush’s farewell trip will bring him face-to-face with a quartet of European leaders in Britain, France, Italy and Germany who are all Atlanticists. It will be in stark contrast to the hostility he aroused over Iraq and the opposition he once encountered in Paris and Berlin from Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder, both now off the international stage.
He will first visit the Slovenian capital, Ljubljana, for the annual US-Europe summit, seven years after he met Vladimir Putin there and declared that he had seen into the Russian leader’s “soul” and viewed him trustworthy. On the agenda this week will be ways to pressure Russia to halt its anti-democratic moves and increased internal repression.
Mr Bush’s priorities include getting cooperation to increase economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran over its nuclear weapons programme, securing more aid and troops for Afghanistan, and eliminating trade barriers between the US and Europe. After Slovenia, he will travel to Germany, Italy, Rome, France and Britain. His last event could include a visit to Belfast to laud the power-sharing agreement in Northern Ireland.
Expectations for the trip were lowered last week by Stephen Hadley, Mr Bush’s national security adviser, who said: “I don’t think you are going to see any dramatic announcements.” Yet he will arrive at a time when Britain, France and Germany are discussing ways to increase pressure on Tehran over its nuclear programme. Approaches to crafting sanctions against Iran, combined with a package of incentives, will be discussed.
On Afghanistan, some progress has already been made. Nicolas Sarkozy, who ran for election in France as a pro-American, has agreed to send an extra 700 troops to the country, and has promised a more robust French military role in Nato.
Yesterday Laura Bush, the First Lady, made a surprise visit to Bamiyan, in Afganistan, where the Taleban triggered international outrage by destroying two giant Buddhist statues in 2001. Mrs Bush has made support for Afghan women one of her priorities.
The European leaders are also aware that both Barack Obama and John McCain, one of whom will succeed Mr Bush in January, have said that they want European countries to contribute more to the fight against the Taleban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. With an Afghan donors conference to be held in Paris on Thursday, Mr Bush will push his counterparts to make good on pledges of aid to Kabul.
In Rome, Mr Bush will be welcomed by a newly reelected Silvio Berlusconi, a staunch ally who supported the Iraq War. He is looking at loosening operating restrictions for Italy’s 2,600 troops operating in western Afghanistan and Kabul. He will also discuss with Mr Bush the possibility of sending more troops to Iraq. Italy withdrew its combat forces in 2006.
Mr Bush will also meet Angela Merkel, who is closer to him than her predecessor, Mr Schröder. They will try to reinvigorate an initiative they began last year to eliminate trade barriers between the US and Europe.
The long goodbye
Today President Bush will attend the EU-US Summit in Ljubljana
Tomorrow Arrives in Germany to meet the Chancellor Angela Merkel
Thursday Meets President Napolitano of Italy and the Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi
Friday Audience with Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican
Sunday Plans to call into Windsor Castle to meet the Queen; dinner with Gordon Brown at No 10
Monday, June 16 Mr Bush is expected to visit Peter Robinson, the new First Minister of Northern Ireland, in Belfast
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