THEY are an often overlooked group of Americans who won the right to vote long after women and black citizens. Although they number in the millions, nobody can say precisely how many of them there are. But Americans living abroad could this year play a critical role in determining whether George Bush or John Kerry wins in November, and they are registering to vote in record numbers.

Democrats and Republicans campaigning outside the US said that there has been unprecedented interest in the elections from expatriates, many of whom have never voted before.

“It’s been absolutely, totally, utterly crazy," said Sharon Manitta, of Democrats Abroad in London. “Starting in 2000, people were calling saying ‘I’m so sorry, I’m so embarrassed I didn’t vote in 2000 and I’m determined to make sure I vote in 2004’.”

The organisation, an official arm of the Democratic Party, said it has registered more than 200,000 overseas voters since the last election. It now has 76 country committees, compared with 28 in 2000, including a new Iraq chapter called Donkeys in the Desert.

It claims to have registered 30,000 expatriates in Israel, compared with 14,000 in 2000. It has registered more than 5,000 in France, roughly five times more than last time. The US embassy in Cairo has issued 3,000 voter registration applications compared with 900 in 2000.

The war in Iraq and its impact on America’s image around the world, the US economic situation, and the close finish in Florida at the last election have fuelled the determination of many expatriates to vote this time. Robert Pingeon, European Regional Chairman of Republicans Abroad, said: “In 2000, the expatriate vote, which was the last counted in the state of Florida, basically confirmed the Bush victory. That was very psychologically important in terms of expatriates being sensitive to the importance of their vote.”

He added that in this contest there is a perceived difference between Mr Bush and Mr Kerry. “This is an election with two clear points of view,” he said. “This isn’t Tweedledee and Tweedledum.” In an effort to mobilise potential voters, both Democrats Abroad and Republicans Abroad have set up registration tables in American schools and corporations and placed adverts in the International Herald Tribune directing people to their websites. In Moscow the Democrats have organised riverboat cruises, parties in the Hard Rock Cafe and showings of Michael Moore’s anti-Bush film Fahrenheit 9/11.

Republicans Abroad has employed campaigners to woo voters around the world. Arnold Schwarzenegger paid a visit to Israel. Dan Quayle, the former Vice-President, gave a speech in Berlin. The President’s aunt, Nancy Bush Ellis, went to Paris and Frankfurt, while his nephew, John Prescott Bush, impressed voters in Mexico with his fluent Spanish.

The Pentagon says that six million people are eligible to vote under its Foreign Voter Assistance Program. Three million of them are American civilians living abroad, while the other half are military personnel and their families.

Expatriates traditionally vote Republican by a 3 to 1, partly because the military vote tends to be more conservative. In Germany, which has one of the biggest American expatriate populations, with about 200,000 civilans and 50,000 military personnel, the turnout among military voters is usually about 70per cent to 75per cent.

“Germany is probably one of the single most important countries just based on the fact that military voters do participate at rates much better than the civilian community,” said Henry Nickel, chairman of Republicans Abroad in Germany.

Expatriates could not vote until 1975, when the Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Rights Act was passed. They have to register every time they want to vote and must do so in the state they last lived.

When they send their forms, they should receive an absentee ballot, although campaigners said many would-be voters have not yet received their ballots. Most Americans abroad tend to come from California, New York, Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania, the last two being swing states in this election.

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