Suzy Jagger and Tom Baldwin: Analysis
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Barack Obama would prefer to wait before taking responsibility for an economic crisis he can do little to alleviate before his inauguration on January 20. The trouble is that the economic crisis shows no sign of waiting for him.
While the upheavals of Wall Street and the burdens on Main Street were the chief reasons that he won the presidential election last week, soon he must harvest the fruits of his victory.
Previous incoming presidents have chosen to remain aloof in similar circumstances. Franklin Roosevelt remained silent during a long transition in the depths of the Great Depression in 1933 so that he would not be tainted by the failures of his predecessor, Herbert Hoover.
Mr Obama knows that appearing to criticise or second-guess the actions of the Bush Administration could destabilise financial markets further. Such is the scale of the storm ripping through America, however, that it is impossible for Mr Obama to shelter behind the transition.
By the time that he takes office next year more than 7 per cent of the workforce is expected to be out of a job. The unemployment rate, which economists describe as rising “vertically”, is increasing with astonishing speed. About 450,000 Americans are losing their jobs every week and it will fall on Mr Obama to face up to the cost of unemployment benefits and find money for public infrastructure projects to create new jobs.
At the same time as devising a means of reversing the unemployment rate, Mr Obama will also have to field calls from a variety of failing industries demanding the same type of bailout as Wall Street banks received, and from which the car industry looks likely to benefit.
Airlines are expected to be next with the begging bowl. While federal bailouts will protect jobs in the short term, they present an uncomfortable dilemma for the President-elect. The original $700 billion bailout was approved by Washington only on the basis that it was effectively a loan, which would be repaid to the taxpayer, with interest, over time.
It was not designed to prop up distressed industries, such as car manufacturers, that are so doomed that the taxpayer may never see the funds again. Worse, as the door opens to other troubled businesses desperate for help, the federal Government may be forced to conjure up another fund – a bailout for the bailout. Yet the size of the current rescue package already exceeds the entire annual US defence budget.
Mr Obama has indicated already that he supports a $100 billion economic stimulus package that President Bush opposes. And he plans further measures, including tax cuts for low and middle-income families to be introduced in late January once he is in the Oval Office.
The President-elect, however, must also make good his promise to help homeowners who are struggling to pay their mortgages. It is not known yet how much his plan to force lenders to renegotiate the terms of home loans will cost, or indeed, who will pick up the bill. What is certain is that the housing slump shows no sign of recovery. In some states real estate values have already fallen by about 40 per cent and are still sliding.
The real political risk for Mr Obama is that by the time he takes office, the cost of propping up the American economy could mean that he cannot afford the very healthcare reforms that propelled him into the White House. With the $700 billion bailout the national debt is set to touch $11 trillion, a record that threatens to cut short Mr Obama’s political honeymoon.
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