Richard Beeston in Washington
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When Imad Moustapha, the Syrian Ambassador to Washington, talks about America’s President-elect, he can barely conceal his excitement at the prospect of an Obama administration closing the door on one of the most turbulent chapters in the Middle East’s rocky history.
During President Bush’s time, the region suffered wars in Iraq and Lebanon, a bloody terrorist campaign in Saudi Arabia, a failed experiment in democracy in Egypt, the rise of Iran as a potential nuclear power and a Middle East peace process that promised much but delivered little. Only the rehabilitation of Libya stands out as a diplomatic success.
Huge expectations have been raised by Barack Obama’s victory, among America’s allies and rivals alike, with hopes that fresh ideas, contagious optimism and less emphasis on the use of force may produce some tangible results in an area that has known only conflict for 60 years. American and Middle Eastern officials, along with regional analysts, believe that Mr Obama could restore full relations with Syria, begin to normalise US ties with Iran - suspended nearly 30 years ago - and breathe new life into the moribund peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.
“This is a very opportune moment for Syria and the United States to reengage politically,” Mr Moustapha told The Times. “Barack Obama has said publicly, on the record, that he wants to reengage. Those who adhere to his cause are also proponents of reengagement with Syria. The Middle East has changed. It is time for America to reconsider its policies.”
The regime in Damascus is still subject to US sanctions imposed after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese Prime Minister, whose murder was blamed widely on the Syrians. Britain and France, however, have reengaged at a senior level with Damascus even as the investigation into the killing continues, smoothing the way for America.
Diplomats in Washington believe that Mr Obama is likely to restore full relations with Damascus and press for the resumption of direct talks between Israel and Syria, suspended more than eight years ago.
At the same time, experts predict an opportunity for dialogue between two of the most bitter foes on the planet, Iran and the “Great Satan” (America). Moves are already under way to reestablish diplomatic ties, with President Ahmadinejad of Iran sending a letter to Mr Obama congratulating him on his victory.
Relations were broken in 1979 when American diplomats were taken hostage in Tehran and held for more than a year. Washington has imposed and tightened sanctions against Iran and has vowed to use force if necessary to prevent the Islamic republic from building a nuclear bomb.
Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran at Tufts University, said that rebuilding a relationship would require skilful diplomacy and patience. “Success in Iran is going to be a long process,” he said. “A deal is possible but it will take time.”
Likewise, peace between Israel and the Palestinians seems as elusive as ever. Mr Obama has had talks with Ehud Olmert, the outgoing Israeli Prime Minister, and Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President. Progress is possible on the West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority is in control, but Gaza, under the rule of the militant movement Hamas, could descend into war with Israel at any moment.
The Israelis go to the polls on February 10, with the right-wing Likud party of Binyamin Netanyahu well ahead of the centrist Kadima party, led by Tzipi Livni, the Foreign Minister.
Elections are also being held in Iran next year, with a weakened President Ahmedinejad fighting for his political life. America has to be careful that any olive branch it extends to Tehran does not benefit the incumbent over his more moderate rivals. Surprisingly, perhaps, the war in Iraq, which a few months ago looked to be unwinnable, is now set on a positive course, with an agreement reached with Baghdad for the withdrawal of US forces within the next three years.
Unfortunately, there remain problems closer to home. Hillary Clinton is the favourite to become secretary of state, with Dennis Ross, her husband’s former Middle East envoy, also tipped to return to government.
There are fears that unless a good working relationship can be established between Mr Obama and his former rival for the Democratic leadership, the tough diplomatic road ahead will suffer the same fate as that which befell the Bush Administration, with the State Department, particularly under Colin Powell, becoming the victim of interagency battles with the White House and the Pentagon.
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