THE REPORT’S FINDINGS

Wealth and power to shift from West to East

Last week the US government’s National Intelligence Council published its quadrennial forecast of the shape of the world in the next 20 years. It predicted that by 2025 America’s role as the sole superpower would be challenged in a more fragmented world and it would become more of a “first among equals” with countries such as China, India and Russia. The report also suggested that as wealth and power moved from West to East, so “the western model of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism, which many assumed to be inevitable, may lose its lustre - at least in the medium term”. Other significant challenges included conflict over scarce resources, “ramshackle” international institutions and increased danger of nuclear conflict.

RISE OF CHINA

Key player in next 20 years may cause global trouble

China, the report says, will “have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country”. However, as well as being a new centre of power, predicted to become the world’s second-largest economy, it is also a potential troublespot. “For the better part of two decades, the world has been focused on the extraordinary growth within China, and now it looks increasingly likely that it will slow,” said Jacqueline Newmyer of Long Term Strategy Group, a Massachusetts think tank, and a contributor to the report. “That could create significant instability in the country and surrounding region, with people also questioning the legitimacy of the Communist government.”

OTHER THREATS

Increased risk of the use of nuclear weapons

The use of nuclear weapons will become more likely over the next 20 years, due to the spread of nuclear technology, increased tension between India and Pakistan and the possible collapse of a nuclear state such as North Korea. Terrorism will remain a threat in 2025, but Al-Qaeda is seen as “an ‘ageing’ group by terrorist standards”. Nevertheless, the report warns that “a successor terrorist group might evolve during the remaining years of the ‘Islamist terrorist wave’”. Climate change will leave 1.4 billion people in 36 countries lacking access to water or farmland and could spark conflicts as nations compete for scarce raw materials. A brighter prediction is that a technological breakthrough may provide an alternative to oil by 2025.

THE BIG PICTURE

America’s world-view has radically changed

While many of the report’s predictions are not that surprising, the differences with its predecessor in 2004 are telling. Then, it foretold “continued US dominance” and stated that “most major powers have forsaken the idea of balancing the US”. It was also dismissive of concerns about energy supplies and climate change. Last week’s report will also give pause for thought for European Union grandees. It says that “distracted by internal bickering and competing national agendas”, Europe could end up “a hobbled giant”. Robin Shepherd, of the think tank Chatham House, said: “This report illustrates in very objective language how America sees the world, and the EU is not very prominent.”

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