Osama bin Laden is not yet a busted flush but the damage caused to his organisation by the American Predator spy drones operating close to the Afghan-Pakistani border has torn a huge hole in his global network.

Al-Qaeda’s tentacles still reach out to bin Laden supporters and sympathisers in dozens of countries, including the United Kingdom, but every time another senior commander is eliminated by a Hellfire missile or a precision-guided bomb fired by an unmanned Predator, the impact is felt across the terrorist network.

Although al-Qaeda has no central communication system and no headquarters, cells in the UK or elsewhere in Europe or North Africa will have points of contact – individuals who can act as messengers or as lower-echelon supervisors who can pass on advice or guidance. This system can be disrupted if key figures in the al-Qaeda organisation are killed or captured.

In recent months the Predators’ successes unquestionably have weakened al-Qaeda’s global reach, and the prosecution of 86 Islamic terrorists in the UK in the past two years has also forced supporters to adopt a low profile, as Jonathan Evans, the MI5 chief, pointed out in an interview with The Times last week.

Nevertheless, bin Laden, as al-Qaeda’s figurehead, retains a certain cachet among his supporters, and although he can never dare to come out into the open, he probably still has sufficient influence over fanatics to persuade them to join Hamas against the Israelis in Gaza.

Ever since bin Laden escaped from his Tora Bora stronghold in Afghanistan in December 2001 he has been surrounded by a band of ultra-loyal bodyguards, mostly made up of Chechen and Uzbek fighters who refer to him as the Sheikh.

Peter Bergen, an author and al-Qaeda expert, interviewed one of bin Laden’s bodyguards, who told him that the terrorist leader had given him two bullets to be used in the event of imminent capture. The guard said he was under instructions to shoot bin Laden and then to kill himself. There is no reason to doubt this story.

However, despite a huge effort, principally by the Americans, to pinpoint bin Laden’s lair, no evidence has emerged to indicate where the 6ft 4in Saudi spends his waking and sleeping hours. Even before yesterday’s tape, intelligence services in the United States and Britain were convinced that he is alive. They also recognise that the element of mystery surrounding his whereabouts has helped to build a reputation of invincibility in the eyes of his supporters.

That myth, though, could not be farther from the truth. The Predators have removed many of the key operational planners, bomb makers and explosives experts, and obliterated al-Qaeda’s planning structure. The demise of his chief lieutenants is one of the main reasons why the US has not been targeted since the 9/11 attacks in 2001.

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