ONE HUNDRED people die from gunshot wounds in Brazil every day, making it one of the world’s most dangerous countries. Yet tomorrow Brazilians look set to reject a proposal to ban the sale of firearms and ammunition.

The world’s first national referendum on gun control appears likely to result in a victory for the “no” campaign mounted by an alliance of Brazil’s conservative parties and funded by gun manufacturers.

Latest opinion polls suggest that opponents of a ban, given little hope of winning at the outset, have seen off the vociferous “yes” campaign, which is fronted by a galaxy of glamorous Brazilian pop stars and actors.

More people are killed by guns in Brazil than anywhere else in the world and the country has the world’s second-highest rate of gun deaths, after Venezuela. Between 1979 and 2003, firearms were responsible for more than half a million deaths in Brazil, according to a UN survey published this year.

Last year 36,000 people were killed in incidents involving guns, and Brazil is one of a few countries in the world where mortality rates for gun-related incidents are higher than those for car accidents. Gun-related incidents are the main cause of death among young Brazilians.

But this violence and its constant reporting in the media have created a pervasive sense of insecurity among Brazilians, most of whom place little faith in the country’s police forces, believing them to be overstretched, incompetent and corrupt.

The “no” campaign has successfully used this in its favour, arguing that in a country where the state is unable to guarantee the security of its citizens, everyone has the right to defend themselves.

The “yes” campaign has tried to counter this argument by insisting that all the data show that people who resist armed criminals are 180 times more likely to die than those who do not. It has also sought to counter the impression that armed bandits are responsible for most gun-related deaths in Brazil. “Yes” campaigners say statistics show that armed criminals account for only about 10 per cent of all gun deaths in Brazil’s most populous state, São Paulo.

The majority are the result of bar brawls, traffic incidents getting out of control, domestic accidents and family disputes.

Half of all women murdered in Brazil’s main cities are killed in gun-related incidents, and most are victims of their husbands or partners. As their support slipped in the polls, the “yes” campaign went to court in an unsuccessful attempt to ban the sale of Brazil’s leading establishment news magazine, which this month ran a cover story titled, “Seven reasons to vote ‘no’ ”.

It also failed to halt the country’s largest television network from airing its latest soap opera, titled Bang, Bang and set in a fictional gun-toting Wild West. Some advocates of gun control who doubted the wisdom of holding a referendum now fear that a “no” vote will result in a sharp increase in gun sales.

“The referendum has created a climate in favour of guns with the ‘no’ argument that guns are a democratic right,” Senator Cristovam Buarque said. “A “no” vote will have a very negative impact. It is going to lead to a big increase in gun sales.”

Taurus, one of Brazil’s biggest firearm manufacturers, has enjoyed a rise in sales as the referendum has progressed.

But because of the price of guns, many Brazilians who said that they were likely to vote “no” would not be able to afford to buy one even if they wanted to, according to a recent poll.

Last year saw a fall in gun deaths in Brazil for the first time in 13 years, even though the death rate remains high. The Brazilian Government claimed credit for the reduction, saying that its scheme to buy back guns from the public has seen half a million weapons handed over to police in the past year.

Legislation passed at the same time now requires all gun holders to re-register their weapons every three years, when they are subjected to psychological tests and have to pay a fee out of reach of most Brazilians.

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