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The musclebound “governator” is facing a crucial special election on Tuesday with only 33 per cent support in what could become one of the worst political miscalculations by a governor in recent memory.
He wants to cap the state’s spending and curb its unions. But in a televised debate on Thursday night, his brutal change of political fortune was made clear as he was called a fraud and shouted down by members of the audience.
Pollsters say that if Mr Schwarzenegger loses more than two of his four “propositions” on the ballot on Tuesday, it could be impossible for him to win re-election next year as governor of the world’s eighth-largest economy, ending one of the most unusual political careers in US history.
The Austrian-born Mr Schwarzenegger, elected in 2003 amid a surge of optimism about his ability to break the political gridlock in the state capital of Sacramento, could also face a challenge in 2006 from Warren Beatty, the rival Hollywood star and Democratic activist.
None of which bodes well for Mr Schwarzenegger’s ambition to become the first “naturalised” American to be elected President, a feat that would require a change of the US Constitution.
Mr Schwarzenegger called for Tuesday’s $50 million (£28.4 million) vote came after Sacramento failed to approve his four proposals to reform California. He did so against the will of most voters, in an effort to show that he could take his agenda directly to the people.
But Mr Schwarzeneger, a liberal Republican, has suffered because of his association with the Bush Administration, with Mr Beatty recently labelling him “a Bush Republican”. As a result, the Governor recently skipped a dinner with the President in Beverly Hills, saying that he was “busy”.
The Governor has also been hit by an estimated $100 million of negative television advertising by unions. As of last week, there were an estimated two union advertisements on television for every one of Mr Schwarzenegger’s.
“Two years ago you elected me to change Sacramento and put California back on track,” Mr Schwarzenegger said in a recent television advertisement of his own that differed markedly in tone from his swaggering, rock’n’roll election campaign of 2003.
“I’ve had a lot to learn and sometimes I learnt the hard way. But my heart is in this and I want to do right by you. Give me the tools to do the job you elected me to do so we can build a better California.”
Mr Schwarzenegger’s unpopularity comes in spite of some measurable achievements: next year the state faces a deficit of about $6 billion, compared with the $21 billion shortfall he inherited.
He also claims to have created 400,000 jobs, which have increased tax revenues by several billion dollars. He has overhauled California’s workers’ compensation scheme and renegotiated gambling contracts with Native American tribes.
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