THE most powerful indication of the scale of President Bush’s political difficulties is the dramatic change in the political meteorology of Washington in the past few weeks.

For almost five years it has been Mr Bush and his White House who have made the weather in America. In domestic politics it has been cutting taxes, increasing public spending, trying to alter the political make-up of the judiciary; in foreign policy, an assertive approach to US interests abroad and the war on terrorism from Afghanistan to Iraq.

Even as the President was beset by storms this autumn, the tough going was largely the result of the White House’s own actions: the inadequate response to Hurricane Katrina, the failure of the Harriet Miers nomination to the Supreme Court, the alleged criminal activity of Scooter Libby and, above all, of course, the failure to pacify and stabilise Iraq.

As the crisis enveloping the President has worsened, other sources have begun to make the political climate. Republicans on Capitol Hill, starting to sense their own political mortality, have seized the initiative.

The most powerful example came this week with a move in the Senate to wrest political control over Iraq policy from the Administration. A tough resolution, passed with overwhelming support from the President’s own party, called on the Administration to produce a clear plan for transfer of the US military role to Iraqis and to report regularly to Congress on progress.

The White House is also locked in a struggle with Republicans over the torture of foreign prisoners in US custody, which the Senate has voted by a large margin to outlaw.

Even in the House of Representatives there are signs of resistance. Last week centrist Republicans blocked a measure backed by the President that would have cut public spending. Other Republicans have balked at a proposal to extend Mr Bush’s tax cuts.

This shifting balance of power in Washington is a direct outcome of Mr Bush’s slumping popularity. This week Gallup recorded his approval rating at its lowest yet: 37 per cent.

Outside Washington there are other signs that the White House may be losing its grip. The off-year elections last week — with victories for Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey and the defeat of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ballot initiatives in California — may be useful pointers to the conditions for a Democrat revival.

The most intriguing outcome was in the governor’s race in Virginia. Tim Kaine, the Democrat winner, built his campaign on a centrist appeal, with heavy emphasis on his deep religious convictions; a rarity for Democrat candidates these days.

The party’s strategists have been pondering the lessons: do not be surprised if would-be Democrat presidential candidates start showing up in church a lot more. Do all these weather vanes point to an irreversible shift in political weather patterns in the US? Not necessarily. After months in which Mr Bush has been on the defensive, the White House is starting to fight back. This week it launched a concerted effort to win back public support for US actions in Iraq, the root of the President’s problems. In an unusual move, the White House has been aggressively rebutting critics who have accused Mr Bush of lying about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.

All week the e-mail inboxes of reporters have been filling with missives from the White House under the title "Setting the Record Straight", which document how belief in Iraq’s WMD programme three years ago was widespread, including among Democrats who now say the claims were made up.

The White House is working hard on a relaunch of the presidency next year, beginning with the confirmation of Samuel Alito, the Supreme Court nominee. Then, in the State of the Union address, Mr Bush plans to push for new initiatives, including a more open immigration policy and, perhaps, serious tax reform. The Administration is also keen to talk about the economy, which continues to record robust growth. Republican strategists note that petrol prices, which seemed to be a key element in the President’s slumping political fortunes this past summer, have eased; prices at the pump are down 20 per cent since early September.

The long-term outlook still rests, however, on Iraq. For Republicans inside and outside the White House, the hope is that successful elections in Iraq next month will enable the US to begin withdrawing troops, getting the issue off the front pages. Mr Bush still believes that democracy in the Middle East can be his shining legacy. But with a view to their electoral fortunes, most Republicans will be quite happy if the public does not hear another word about Iraq.

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