Richard Beeston, Times Diplomatic Editor, examines the implications of reports that a high-level US panel is to propose radical changes to American policy in Iraq:

Why does this matter? How seriously should the proposals of the Iraq Study Group be taken?

I am reliably informed that the Iraq Study Group is the focus of most attention in the American foreign policy community at present.

It is important for two reasons. First it is headed by James Baker, the former US Secretary of State under President Bush senior. He is very close to the Bush family. Anything he proposes will carry huge weight.

Second, it is clear that the American public is disillusioned with the conduct of the war in Iraq. Both Democrats and Republicans want some alternative to the Bush "stay the course" policy. If Mr Baker can produce a credible bipartisan alternative there is a good chance that it will be adopted as policy.

Is the White House likely to follow any of the recommendations?

This is likely to depend heavily on the results of next month's mid-term elections for the US Congress. If, as expected, the Republicans lose control of one or both houses then there will be added pressure on the White House to change its Iraq policy. The Iraq Study Group is the perfect vehicle to do this.

Given Baker's close relationship with the Bush family, it is inconceivable that he would propose policy changes that the White House would find unacceptable. He has on the panel a number of very influencial Democrats. The idea is that a policy change would be made that would satisfy the resurgent Democrats and keep the Bush Administration on board. If Baker can pull off a compromise like this then I believe there is a good chance that the recommendations will be adopted.

That said, if the Republicans do better than expected there will be less pressure on the Bush Administration to make meaningful changes. In that case the recommendations could be quietly shelved.

Was there any British involvement in the Iraq Study Group and its proposals?

Yes, the British have twice been consulted along with scores of other interested parties. The British have been closely involved throughout the preparation and execution of the invasion of Iraq and will have a voice in any policy change.

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