THE iron grip with which Republicans have held the House of Representatives for the past 12 years appears looser by the day with each fresh disclosure in the sex scandal involving Congressman Mark Foley and teenage boys working on Capitol Hill.

Democrats are increasingly optimistic about making the 15 net gains they need to control the 435-seat House in November’s congressional elections. Some believe they could also take back the Senate, where they need to win at least six of the 15 seats being defended by Republicans. Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster, predicted yesterday that the mid-terms are set to mirror those of 1994 when Democrats were swept from power by a wave of voter anger. He said: “I watched something similar happen in 1997 when Tony Blair’s Labour Party won its landslide against the Conservatives. The Republicans are sinking fast.”

Mr Luntz said that the damage done to Republicans by Mr Foley was deeper than merely alienating key groups of voters such as Christian conservatives and so-called “soccer moms”. “The Foley scandal is a symbol of what has gone wrong in Washington — a Congress out of touch with America.”

Nor is it just the lurid details of Mr Foley’s case that are threatening to turn away would-be Republican voters. Claims made last night that the party leadership knew about the affair two years ago and covered it up have chimed with Democrat allegations of Republican arrogance.

A Reuters/Zogby poll published tested opinion yesterday in 15 Republican-held swing seats. This showed Democrats to be leading in 11.

Mr Foley has fled to a rehab clinic, claiming that alcoholism and the sexual abuse he suffered at the hands of a clergyman may have clouded his judgment. Republicans have been left to despair as further transcripts emerge of the sexually explicit computer messages he sent to former pageboys whom he met working in Congress.

Some show him seeking a physical relationship, while another suggests that he indulged in computer sex with a boy shortly before voting in the House. Police were said to be seeking warrants to seize equipment from his office pending a possible criminal prosecution.

Tony Perkins, head of the conservative Family Research Council, said: “The Republican Party holds itself out as the guardian of values and for something like this to happen does not bode well for the party.”

Bob Bennett, the veteran Ohio State Republican chairman, said: “If you think that Foley doesn’t have an impact on the electorate, someone is kidding themselves.” He cited the cases of two former Republican Congressman — the conviction of Randy “Duke” Cunningham on bribery charges and the guilty plea of Bob Ney on similar counts. “And now Foley,” he said. “People get very upset, people begin to say, ‘what’s going on?’.”

Indeed, the Foley scandal is one more easily understood by voters than any of the financial and administrative corruption cases that have blighted the Republican Congress in the past year.

Republican leaders have been falling out with each other over who should take the blame for failing to deal with Mr Foley earlier. There is growing speculation that even if they retain control of the House in November, Dennis Hastert will not return as Speaker.

The Democrats have been swift to exploit the scandal. Patty Wetterling, a Minnesota House candidate whose 11- year-old son was abducted in 1989 and never found, has used Foley in a campaign advertisement and is lined up to make a national radio broadcast for the Democrats this weekend.

The campaign is expected to become even dirtier, with Republicans and Democrats said to be trawling Capitol Hill for evidence of any other scandalous behaviour by Congressmen.

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