American voters go to the polls today to elect two powerful mayors, two state assemblies and two state governors, one of whom faced a possible lawsuit from the surviving members of Monty Python yesterday.

The elections may prove anything but funny for the White House as the independents who swept Mr Obama to power a year ago record what will inevitably be seen as their first verdict on a presidency that promised change but has so far failed to deliver it at home or abroad.

The stakes are highest in New Jersey, where the Democratic incumbent is tied in the gubernatorial race, having been more than ten points adrift over the summer. The White House has given up hope of a Democratic victory in Virginia, where a landslide win is forecast for the Republican candidate for governor despite Mr Obama’s capture of the traditionally conservative state by a six-point margin last year.

Any doubts about the importance that the Administration attaches to the off-year elections were dispelled on Sunday. Mr Obama made no fewer than five campaign stops on his third visit to New Jersey to stump for Governor Jon Corzine, a multimillionaire and former chief executive of Goldman Sachs seeking a second term from voters hit by unemployment and high local taxes. “We will not lose this election if all of you are as committed as you were last year,” Mr Obama told one crowd of loyalists.

In New Jersey, as in Virginia, polls show that while his personal ratings remain close to his 53 per cent share of the vote last year, his ability to galvanise young, black and independent voters on behalf of others is in doubt.

Hours before polls opened a survey gave Mr Corzine a two-point lead over Christopher Christie, a former federal prosecutor riding a tide of voter anger that belies New Jersey’s solidly Democratic history and his limited appeal.Mr Christie is described, even by members of his own party, as a second-tier candidate — politely coded language for an overweight plodder whose girth has become a significant issue. He has fought as a “corruption buster” but Mr Corzine, who has spent more than $100 million (£61 million) of his own money on his political career, sought to neutralise that attack with television spots accusing his opponent of “throwing his weight around” at state law enforcement agencies.

Mr Christie, a former US Attorney, lost patience last week and responded in a radio interview: “If you’re going to do it, at least man up and say I’m fat.”

In a campaign advertisement removed hastily from his website on Sunday, Mr Christie superimposed accusations of excessive increases in state freeway tolls over footage of Michael Palin in a 1969 sketch about déjà vu.

Mr Palin said in a statement: “I’m surprised that a former US attorney isn’t aware of his copyright infringement when he uses our material without permission. He’s clearly made a terrible mistake. It was the endorsement of Sarah Palin he was after, not that of Michael Palin.” Terry Jones told the left-wing Huffington Post: “It is totally outrageous that a former US Attorney knows so little about the law that he thinks he can rip off people.”

If Mr Christie wins he will send a powerful signal to moderate Democrats in the House of Representatives, all of whom face re-election next year.Many fear they will be ousted if they support the latest healthcare Bill.

The Virginia race is being watched even more closely. Anything more than a 55 per cent share of the vote for Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate, will be seen as a landslide after Mr Obama’s win last year. “The question is how big the win is,” Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst for the non-partisan Cook Report, said.

The only real consolation for Mr Obama, however, is that Republican disarray will be on show in New York state’s 23rd district. The conservative vote there is split between a moderate who has dropped out to endorse a Democratic candidate, and a radical candidate backed by Mrs Palin.

Your guide to the night

New Jersey

State assembly elections and governor race between Republican Christopher Christie and Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine, who was set to lose until he attacked Mr Christie’s weight and ethics. Too close to call.

What’s at stake Democrat self-belief — it’s a solidly blue state

Virginia

State assembly elections and governor’s race between Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat Creigh Deeds. McDonnell to win by a landslide.

What’s at stake Democrats claim to have ended Republican hold on state with Obama’s win last year

New York

Mayor Michael Bloomberg will be re-elected. In Congressional District 23, Doug Hoffman, backed by Sarah Palin, has elbowed out the mainstream Republican candidate and is neck and neck with Democrat Bill Owens.

What’s at stake Test of activists to hijack mainstream Republicans

Maine

“Question 1” on ballot asks voters to repeal state law allowing same-sex unions. Too close to call.

What’s at stake A resounding “no” would be hailed by gay rights activists as their answer to California outlawing “gay marriage”

Times Recommends

• Please help: maimed children of war want their lives back
• Cabal seizes diamond riches to buy power
• White House gatecrashers got to the president