Barack Obama and his Democratic Party were given clear warning yesterday that they face a potentially disastrous 2010 after big Republican victories on Tuesday signalled mounting voter discontent with the economy and the President’s spending plans.

The Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey also revealed significant cracks in the broad coalition that swept Mr Obama to power last November 4 and showed that floating voters — crucial to his win last year — are defecting to the Republicans in droves.

The defeats came as Mr Obama’s hopes of achieving universal health insurance were dealt yet another blow. Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate majority leader, said that Congress will probably not vote on the issue until next year. That means that the health reform debate will now slip into mid-term election season, with many moderate Democrats, facing voter concerns over the exploding budget deficit, less likely to back a plan set to cost about $1 trillion.

In New Jersey, a predominantly Democrat state, the Democratic incumbent, John Corzine, lost to his Republican opponent Chris Christie by five points, despite a last-ditch effort by Mr Obama to sway the vote.

Mr Obama had campaigned intensively for Mr Corzine in recent days and the defeat fuelled debate about the limits of his influence a year after his historic victory. It also raised questions about the status of the diverse coalition that propelled him to the White House. In both states young, first-time voters, and African-Americans who voted for Mr Obama in huge numbers last year, stayed at home.

Most worrying for Mr Obama and his fellow Democrats was that voters not signed up for either party, a critical voting bloc who flocked to him and the Democrats last year, defected in huge numbers to the Republican candidates. In Virginia, a state Mr Obama carried by seven points last year, the Republican Bob McDonnell crushed his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds, by 59 per cent to 41. Republicans swept all three Virginia offices on the ballot — governor, lieutenant governor and attorney-general — by at least ten points.

In exit polls Democrats, in control of both the House and Senate and looking ahead to next November’s mid-term elections, received a torrent of disturbing news. The overwhelming message voters said that they wanted to send to incumbents was “change” — but unlike Mr Obama’s slogan last year, this time the demand appeared aimed at Democrats.

The overwhelming majority — 89 per cent in Virginia, and 85 per cent in New Jersey — said that the economy was their top priority. Yet unlike last year, when voters who worried about the economy backed Mr Obama, those same voters now switched to the Republican candidates.

In Virginia three voters in four who were worried about the economy backed Mr McDonnell, with Mr Christie in New Jersey winning three in five. Many also expressed grave concerns about the vast cost of Mr Obama’s spending plans, at a time of stubbornly high unemployment and a budget deficit of $1.4 trillion.

Mr Christie said that his election was a victory for those “who don’t want the government to fix every problem”, as the crowd before him chanted “Yes, we can”, appropriating Mr Obama’s slogan of last year.

The victories will also help to energise a Republican Party that has suffered a miserable four years of election defeats as it tries to rebuild itself. “Bob McDonnell’s victory gives Republicans tremendous momentum heading on to 2010,” declared Haley Barbour, chairman of the Republican Governors Association. But it was not all good news for Republicans. In a by-election in upstate New York — and a seat held by Republicans for over a century — a Democrat defeated an insurgent conservative candidate.

That result carried its own warnings for Republicans and signalled that the party’s civil war over its ideological future — between conservatives such as Sarah Palin, and moderates — is far from over.

Several days before the election in New York’s vacant 23rd Congressional District seat, the mainstream, moderate Republican candidate was effectively ousted by a conservative rebellion led by Douglas Hoffman, who had been backed by figures such as Mrs Palin and Rush Limbaugh, the right-wing talk show host. Yet Mr Hoffman was defeated by the Democrat, Bill Owens, a result suggesting that Republicans should be wary of running conservatives in an age when independents and moderate voters determine the outcome of elections.

The White House distanced itself from the defeats, saying that the races for governor were local issues and not a referendum on Mr Obama.

In exit polls, more than half of voters said that the President was not a factor in their decision.

Democrat strategists said that Mr Deeds was a weak candidate, and that this was the sixth time Virginia and New Jersey have elected governors who belong to the party opposing the President.

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