SINCE Fidel Castro was hospitalised this week, Cuban exiles in Miami have been celebrating in earnest, euphoric in the belief that their 47 years of waiting are drawing to a close.

But there are reasons to believe that their triumphant return may not come as soon as they would wish. Señor Castro’s powers of recovery and his determination to continue leading his island nation should not be underestimated.

Raúl Castro, the President’s brother, has a firm grip on the police and Army. With police posted on most street corners, it seems unlikely that he will face any trouble.

Cubans would not rebel against their Government unless they had a clear alternative, one local analyst said. With most dissidents locked up or isolated, there is no effective opposition. And Cuba has no democratic tradition to fall back on. “Cubans are not simply going to rise up against a Government without anything to take its place,” he said. “Remember, the Government is paying everyone’s salaries.”

After refusing to delegate authority for most of his rule, Señor Castro has spent the past three years putting a succession plan in place. It gives his brother interim power while handing rule to younger leaders from the Cuban Communist Party.

There are many restrictions on life in Cuba. Cubans cannot speak freely about politics for fear of reprisals. People living in Havana say that food rations are insufficient, forcing people to hustle tourists or trade on the black market. Health and education are free but they “don’t put food in your mouth”, said one 49-year old. But Cubans would not necessarily support the US or the Miami exiles. Many Cubans remain fiercely nationalistic and resentful of what they see as US meddling in their country. Many fear that exiles would march back, reclaiming property expropriated half a century ago and take power with US backing.

A US plan to aid a post-Castro transition has not helped to dispel the notion. It offered a further $80 million (£43 million) to fund anti-Castro causes. Some Cuban dissidents have criticised it, saying it links them to the US Government in ways that are unhelpful. The opposition member, Manuel Cuesta Morúa, said: “Those are 80 million arguments for the Cuban Government to make it seem all Cuban dissidents are financed by the United States.”

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