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Yet until this week’s acrimonious and muddled meeting at the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna finally ends, there is a hovering uncertainty that this will happen.
Yesterday the tone hardened. Russia denied that it was offering Iran a way to keep a vestige of the most controversial research. The US warned Iran of “consequences” if it persisted with uranium enrichment. Britain, France and Germany, who orchestrated the IAEA vote that referred the row to the council, said that what is known about Iran’s research could be just the tip of the iceberg: missile designs which have emerged this year could point to a secret military programme.
And Iran, in its inimitable vocabulary, warned the US that it, too, could cause “harm and pain”, and threatened to disrupt oil markets. It attacked US “warmongers”, saying: “Surely we are not naive about the US’s intention to flex muscles. But we also see the bone fractures underneath.”
The West’s hope is that the row will move with a whimper, not a bang, straight to New York. As of yesterday, that looked likely. No “compromise” had been put before the board. But such is the reluctance of Iran’s supporters to see the row escalate that, until the Vienna meeting ends tomorrow, that cannot be assumed.
However, the way ahead in New York has become much clearer. Iran’s critics would press the council to back a series of penalties, starting with the mildest.
Agreeing these modest steps could take a year. No one in New York wants to use the “S-word” — for sanctions — and no one wants anything like the 12-year sanctions against Iraq, with their Oil-for-Food Programme, which became the UN’s worst corruption scandal.
Carry on up King Charles Street
THE funniest part of the review of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office by the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee is its indignation at being repeatedly shut out of the picture by the mandarins of King Charles Street. But its report makes a serious point.
In withholding from the committee at least two detailed, expensive, internal surveys of its own workings — including that of a £1 million, four-year fraud in Tel Aviv — the FCO showed a “disturbing aversion . . . to proper scrutiny of its activities”, the committee concludes. When the committee did read the reports, it was shocked by some of the findings.
“We conclude that the FCO needs to catch up with the rest of Whitehall by recruiting professionally qualified, experienced people to the top roles in finance, human resources and estate management,” it said.
As Mike Gapes, the Labour chairman, put it: “People who are very good diplomats are not necessarily very good managers, or experienced in finance.” More recruits should be female and from ethnic minorities, the committee said — although it noted that the FCO management agreed.
Andrew MacKinlay, a Labour member, argued that the problem went beyond management to foreign policy itself. “There is a culture in the senior echelons of the Foreign Office which we need to challenge,” he said. “We need to make them understand they are accountable to Parliament” on questions of policy, such as the Sandline arms row or the Iraq war, as well as for accounts.
But the committee is sympathetic on one important point: the “excessive expectations of what the FCO is able to do for people who get into difficulties abroad, including in . . . natural disasters”, it said.
It complimented the Foreign Office on handling Freedom of Information applications quickly, but chided it for turning down more than almost any other department. Yet it sat on the fence on the thorny question of diplomats’ memoirs — warmly urging that confidences not be broken, and that publication should fit tight criteria. Openness, up to a point, was its ambiguous conclusion.
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