Tim Reid in Portsmouth, New Hampshire
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A hoarse but ebullient Barack Obama has stormed into New Hampshire after his clear victory over Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses reshaped the Democratic presidential race.
Mr Obama, whose message of generational change handed him victory in Iowa on a tidal wave of young and independent voters, arrived in the Granite State yesterday and proclaimed to a cheering crowd in a vast aircraft hangar in Portsmouth: “Our time for change has come. And four days from now, New Hampshire, you have the chance to change America!”
Mr Obama’s eight-point victory over Mrs Clinton in Iowa appeared to be a stunning vindication of his passionate call for a new, less divisive era in US politics. But he now faces perhaps the greatest challenge of his campaign: a wounded Mrs Clinton in a state where she enjoys far deeper support than she ever did in Iowa.
The former First Lady, who finished third just behind John Edwards, will now use every element of the ruthless political machine behind her, and connections in New Hampshire built up over years with her husband, Bill, to halt Mr Obama’s momentum.
As soon she arrived in New Hampshire, Mrs Clinton immediately launched far sharper and more personal attacks on Mr Obama. In a reference to his self-admitted past drug use, she told a cheering crowd at Nashua airport: “Of all the people running for president, I’ve been the most vetted, the most investigated, and — my goodness — the most innocent, it turns out.”
In a later press conference, she said she would be “drawing contrasts between what I’ve done for 35 years and what my leading opponents have done.”
With Mr Obama seeking to become America’s first black president, his victory in an overwhelmingly white Iowa was all the more remarkable because he attracted record numbers and almost every demographic. He carried its five biggest counties, its conservative west, the rural stretches along the South Dakota border, university students, and even outpolled Mrs Clinton among women, her core constituency.
“They said this day would never come,” Mr Obama said. “My throat is still a bit torn up but my spirits are high. Because last night America began down the road to change.”
The first-term senator from Illinois, referring to Mrs Clinton’s attempts earlier in the campaign to run as the inevitable candidate, he said: “This is the moment when the improbable beat what Washington always said was inevitable.”
He chided his opponents for calling naive his campaign slogan “hope”. And in the soaring rhetoric that has marked his campaign he even declared that he carried the same kind of hope that had allowed America to gain its independence.
Another victory for Mr Obama in New Hampshire on Tuesday could give him unstoppable momentum as the closely bunched primary calendar unfolds in the next three weeks. But he and his aides are acutely aware that New Hampshire presents very different political terrain from Iowa, and is a state where Mrs Clinton has several advantages. She leads by seven points, according to the latest poll. Her support is solid: among Democrats who say they have made a definite choice, she is supported by 46 per cent, Mr Obama by only 28 per cent.
The state’s more obdurate electorate has more of an appetite for attack advertisements than the gentler Midwestern sentiments that mark Iowa. New Hampshire has often righted an Establishment candidate’s ship after it has been blown off course in Iowa.
Mr Clinton is still beloved by New Hampshire’s Democrats and the couple have spent years assiduously courting its voters. Their ground organisation is formidable here.
Yet Mr Obama heads to events across New Hampshire this weekend having beaten two tough opponents in Iowa — Mr Edwards had campaigned there for four years — and amid a creeping sense that this year America just might be ready to embrace a black, 46-year-old candidate called Barack Hussein Obama. He has run a civilised, almost cerebral, campaign, and is promising a decisive break with the bitterly contested politics of the baby-boom generation that have marked the presidencies of Mr Clinton and George W. Bush.
Mr Obama has another advantage: nearly 45 per cent of New Hampshire’s registered voters are independents, the key to John McCain’s victory in the 2000 Republican primary, but who appear this week far more ready to flock to the candidate of change.
Mr Obama has enormous obstacles to overcome, not least the still formidable candidacy of Mrs Clinton, but his rise to become Democratic frontrunner is nevertheless a remarkable feat. Over the summer Mr Obama appeared becalmed, and sometimes meandering. Many believed that he lacked the steel to take on Mrs Clinton’s apparently unstoppable juggernaut, let alone make it all the way to the White House. But in October, as Mrs Clinton began to stumble, Mr Obama also sharpened his message and began to rise in the polls. The Clinton campaign responded with a series of clumsy attacks that backfired, not least a memo to reporters revealing that Mr Obama had written a kindergarten essay saying that he wanted to be president. They contrasted those childish writings with his claims this year to have harboured only recent ambitions for the White House.
“This feels good,” Mr Obama said to the New Hampshire crowd. And then, with a dig at Mrs Clinton, added: “Just how I imagined it when I was talking to my kindergarten teacher.”
Democrats in Iowa
Winners and losers
GOING UP
Barack Obama Senator seeking to become first black president with a message of change and bringing America together again. After a stunning victory in Iowa, he now must repeat the trick in New Hampshire. Questions remain about whether he can build similar excitement nationally in big states where he cannot force himself on voters with the intensity he has shown in the early contests.
65.2% Chance of winning New Hampshire 43.8% Chance of winning Democrat nomination 27.5% Chance of winning presidency
GOING DOWN
Hillary Clinton Senator and former First Lady who has campaigned on her experience as an “agent of change”. Stripped of her aura of inevitability and invincibility, she must turn her campaign around fast and convince voters that a Clinton Restoration to the White House would deliver the change for which they yearn. But she maintains a strong lead in national polls and New Hampshire may be more fertile ground.
35.2% Chance of winning New Hampshire 53.7% Chance of winning Democrat nomination 32.2% Chance of winning presidency
GOING SIDEWAYS
John Edwards former Senator and vice-presidential nominee in 2004 who has reinvented himself as an angry populist. Did well to scrape second place in Iowa but, with Obama now clearly the alternative to Clinton, he is expected to struggle in New Hampshire where union votes matter less and he will be outspent once more.
1.6% Chance of winning New Hampshire 2.3% Chance of winning Democrat nomination 1.3% Chance of winning presidency
Source: politics futures trading at realclearpolitics.com
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"but Brett's description of how this is viewed here in the U.S. is spot on."
Claire, Arlington, VA, USA
How something is viewed, does not make it right or correct. Many things have been "viewed" one way in the US, and are not true. What you cousins in the US don't get is that perception by the US does not make truth. To call Obama black is factually incorrect. I couldn't care less if that's the complete view of everyone in America; if that's the case every single one of you is wrong! Laura Roberts is right.
Tom Franklin, London, UK
Jim of Tucson:
While Senator Biden may take a position in the winning Democratic administration (especially since his son is positioned to run for his Senate seat), we need Senator Dodd to take the leadership of the Senate away from Senator Harry (Give the President What He Wants) Reid.
Jeremiah, Pearl City, HI
To our British cousins who are having a hard time understanding why we, in America, keep referring to Obama as black when you think he isn't, read Brett Champion's explanation here on this blog. I lived in the UK and understand the distinction you make, but Brett's description of how this is viewed here in the U.S. is spot on.
Claire, Arlington, VA, USA
Barack Obama has held public office since 1996, starting in the Illinois state government.
Hilary Clinton has held public office since 2000.
Who has more experience ?
We aren't electing a senator to the federal government. We are electing president. So don't think experience in the federal congress is the alpha & the omega.
Anyway, wouldn't it be nice if the next "Leader of the free world" had some integrity.
Dave G Cawdell, Phoenix, Arizona
Obama ran a masterful campaign in Iowa. Expect his inexperience to be hi-lighted in the coming months, if he survives Hillary. Americans seem to be more interested in likeability rather than experience for the most important job in the world. If HIllary and Obama are smart they will find a role for Joe Biden and/or Chris Dodd in their administration. These two guys are loyal, honest, brilliant statesmen that got shunned for the celebrity candidates. Sad state of affairs in the world of nuclear Pakistan, climate change, and bin Laden.
jlm, Tucson, AZ, USA
Laura Roberts is correct in her appraisal of Obama's race. He is of mixed races. Senator Obama's racial heritage should be irrelevant any way.
Watts Taylor, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
Esqueese me please, but I read in TIME magazine that in a survey, only 8% of participants cared for "experience". Ha!
And JFK didn't have that much political experience yet he is the President that I admire and respect. In fact, even Dubya had no real foreign policy experience.
Ed, U.K.,
BARACK OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT!
The World is going to be a much better place!!
My soul is singing!! :-)
QLinderman, San Ramon, California
sitting here in Portsmouth, New Hampshire as one of the state's many independent voters, there is the sense of something historic in our vote this upcoming Tuesday. Do we vote for a continuation of another political dynasty entrenched in the status quo or do we challenge ourselves to consider a reverse of all we have gone through over the past 7 years. I'm sorely tempted to consider the the latter and vote for Obama.
Liam, Portsmouth, NH
This man will not be the first black President of the USA.
He is not a blackman.
His mother was white and his father,black.
He is therefore of mixed race.
Such persons are called "coloureds".
alan maddox, wirral, england
Barack has demonstrated a long-term commitment to his message that it is "us", "we", and "everyone" who can and need to work together to effect the real change he is talking about. Barack is actually the most experienced candidate, having worked at the grassroots level as a community organizer in the most economically challenged area of Chicago, taught constitutional law, and served in the legislative branch at the state and national level. Obama has as much, if not more, experience as Reagan, both Clintons, and W. He has put his money where his mouth is, which is a large part of his appeal. Obama has a vision and message that the majority of this country and the world is hungering for. He is running to fulfill that vision, not promote himself. I am confident that the American electorate will do the right thing and elect the candidate who demonstrates integrity and embodies the best of what this country stands for and hopes to be. I'm excited for November!
Saffoula, Seattle, WA
I wholeheartedly agree with the UK resident...Senator Obama proved the naysayers wrong. Whatever happens in the general election, I trust that Americans who were so patriotic after 9/11 will unite and learn how to work together. I am cautiously optimistic....inasmuch as Senator Obama won Iowa (one of the whitest states in the U.S); he can do well elsewhere.
Let's give credit where it is due. Who knew this would ever happen, I savor the proud moments for Africans in the Diaspora, as well as supporters of other ethnic groups. The world is watching us and we are estatic.
Ronke, Saginaw, Michigan
I just don't see Obama winning the presidency.
Way too many potential negatives. Some silly, some not so silly.
I'd be surprised if he got 40% of the vote in a general election.
gb, Austin, USA
I was dubious about Obama for along time, mainly because of his relative youth and inexperience. However, the more I read about him the more I like was he stands for, and the more I see him the more I think he could be an inspiring world leader.
While I'm here, why is it that he is consistently referred to as black when he is mixed race?
Gatz, Chelmsford, UK
A word of caution - don't make too much of the vote in Iowa nor the vote in New Hampshire. Both states are considered by many as moderate states, i.e., they tend to take the middle of the road and vote for candidates who are considered moderates. The voters in most states will vote for candidates who take firm stances on the issues of the day. The elections for those states are a ways off.
Garry, Colorado Springs, US/Colorado
To Laura from London:
It may be factually incorrect to call Obama "black" in the racial sense of the word, but it is not incorrect to do so in a cultural sense. In the US, if someone is even one-fourth black, they are often described as "black" or "African American" (and often self-describe this way too). It's a cultural hold over from the Jim Crow, segregationist era in American history when segregationist states legally defined who was and who wasn't allowed to sit at which counter or use which water fountain. Younger Americans are inclined to junk what has often been referred to as the "one-drop rule" in America, but a majority of Americans still clearly see Obama as black.
Brett Champion, Alexandria, Virginia, US
Repeat after me: black + white = grey. 50% black + 50% white does not make a black person, it makes a mixed race person. It is absolutely factually incorrect and illogical to keep labelling this man as black, when he is as much white as he is black.
Laura Roberts, London, UK
To say Obama voted NO against Iraq war is completely misleading - Obama has only been in the Senate two years.
Obama energy and credits are truly impressive, but frankly he lacks experience. Clinton is not the only candidate runnning against him.
It's a long road from Iowa to the convention and much more should be seen and heard from all candidates before a decision is made.
Linda, New York City, USA
Obama sounds just the sort of guy we need on this side of the pond. Clinton and co may have all the connections in some places but they are so old money. She claims 35 years experience of doing what? And what has the US got to show for it? A nation traumatised by Iraq, an economy falling apart and serious environmental challenges. I've just had it with identikit politicians stuffed with money and spouting cliches. Obama looks like the tomorrow I hope for
Ray Cobbett, Emsworth,
There is only one person who can stop Obama - Obama himself.
maurice, Tauranga, N Zealand
As a Brit looking on it seems like deja-vu. Obama like the Kennedy's bring generational change and with it he presents a huge threat to the establishment and vested interest. He, like David Cameron, brings a freshness & genuine new ideas to the jaded, failed leadership of our two countries. I truly hope that we see an Obama presidency but I suspect there is a real risk that his flame of hope and passion will be doused prematurely just like the Kennedy's because of the threat he poses to the established order.
Mike Donnellan, Woodford, Cheshire
In cold and snowy Canada we watched our dearest cousin and neighbour get hopelessly over the last 7 years, and a terrible price has been paid by the entire world.
In Barack Obama, America is finding its soul again. Overnight the great lantern that is the American dream was lit and lifted high again beside the golden door, blazing its way through every door and illuminating darkness around the globe.
A weary world waits breathlessly. Of course he won't be perfect--he doesn't need to be. The dream is.
Sandy Garossino, Vancouver, Canada
Who cares
stanley , Haifa ,
Barack is forward thinking individual that is a once in a lifetime figure. I will vote for him and donate money to his campaign because I know he is the best person for the job.
malick, Chicago, il
I tend to vote Republican, but I'd vote for Obama over Romney or Giuliani in a general election (and behind McCain, Huckabee, and Thompson). I would never vote for Clinton or Edwards. If the Democrats want to win, they will nominate Obama.
Mike Manning, Knoxville, Tennessee
This may sound strange because their positions on most issues are very different but there are only two candidates for president for whom I would vote...John McCain and Barack Obama. My reasons are simple. They are the only two candidates who have shown themselves to be leaders. They are the only two who have shown themselves to be honest and trustworthy. They are the only two who have any desire whatsoever to put the welfare of the nation above their own and, as such, are the only two who have any chance of putting the divisions of the past 40 years behind us where they belong.
If neither is chosen to represent his party I will not vote. If one or the other is chosen I will vote for him no matter who his opponent is. If both are chosen I will have a hard time deciding because I actually respect both a great deal. It will be a problem for me but the problem of having two good men to choose from would surely beat the situation we have faced for years now...that of having none.
David Dial, Akron, Ohio
I watch the American Presidential race from Australia and fervently pray that the hope Barak Obama talks of and strongly believes in is realised for America and the world through his nomination as Democat presidential candidate and then as your President.
We in Australia have made significant changes in our direction with a new Prime Minister who offers similar hope through a more ethical approach as a member of the international community in this changing world.
I urge Americans to embrace the potential that is being offered to you so that your powerful country can once more share its place proudly on the world stage through Barak Obama as your leader and know that the change he talks of is a matter of a vote away.
Maureen Willson, Melbourne , Victoria Australia
What I appreciate in Obama is that he voted NO to the Iraq War
when doing so was risky and thought of as antiamerican.
He did say NO to war.
Ana Medina, Brooklyn, USA
I'm always amazed to read, after all the credentials and credits that are listed for Senator Obama, the return to the naysaying! If indeed he does have all the attributes mentioned and has received all the accolades, why are are we so terrified of a Clinton victory? Clearly, in the most difficult state (for him) he effected a clear victory and appealed to all demographics. And this was no surprise!
Why are we reciting and almost celebrating all the Clintons' ability ("ruthless" campaign machine notwithstanding) to defeat him?
He is an outstanding all-rounder, in addition to having star quality, in every way, academic pedigree, and (although this is hilarious!) definitely "looks presidential!" Most of all, I believe he has the most integrity and definitely cares about people everywhere. He is our hope for tomorrow.
Carol McFarlane, Yakim, Washington, USA