Tom Baldwin and Tim Reid of The Times, in Manchester, New Hampshire
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Hillary Clinton has defied the polls, pundits and even her own expectations by winning a narrow but crucial victory over her chief rival for the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama, in the New Hampshire primary.
Her triumph means that the historically-charged battle between Mrs Clinton – seeking to become first woman to win the White House – and Mr Obama who hopes to be the first black president, is now wide open once again.
"Now together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me," she declared amid wild scenes of celebration at her campaign headquarters.
The victor in the Republican race was John McCain who told a similarly euphoric crowd that he had staged a "real come-back" by beating Mitt Romney – who for long led New Hampshire polls – into second place. "Mac is back! Mac is back!" chanted supporters as he told them he can kick on from here to win the nomination.
With 96 per cent of votes counted, Mrs Clinton had 39 per cent support, compared to 36 per cent for Mr Obama. Mr McCain led Mr Romney by 37 per cent to 32 per cent.
Turnout was swelled by warm – almost spring-like – weather with state officials claiming the vote would smash previous records. Exit polls suggested one in seven voters had made up their mind on the day of the election while around 40 per cent of those taking part in the Democratic contest were registered Independents.
Woman voters, who deserted Mrs Clinton when she finished third in last week's Iowa caucuses, appeared to have backed her solidly by a margin of 47 per cent to Mr Obama's 34 per cent in New Hampshire. Mrs Clinton also picked up greater support among younger people and, significantly, more half those taking part in the Democratic primary said they had made on their choice on the basis of issues, not personalities.
Mrs Clinton said that she had listened to New Hampshire voters and, in doing so, "I found my own voice". The tears which briefly filled her eyes at a campaign event on Monday may now be regarded as a turning point when a candidate often seen as cold and calculating at last revealed genuine emotion.
Her speech showed she had re-calibrated her message to incorporate some of Mr Obama's language of hope, as well as his notion of being part of a "movement" for change.
"This campaign will transform America," she promised, adding: "I'm not going out there alone: I'm going out there accompanied by millions and millions of people who believe this country is worth fighting for."
When she launched her presidential run almost a year ago, she said: "I'm in it to win it." At her New Hampshire victory party she said: "I'm in it for the American people."
A further adjustment was seen on television screens, which when Mrs Clinton lost in Iowa last week had shown her surrounded by ageing figures associated with her husband's presidency. Her victory rally, by contrast, showed Mrs Clinton speaking against a backdrop of young, overwhelmingly female, supporters.
The Clinton comeback creates the prospect of a drawn-out and possibly damaging fight for the Democratic nomination which could extend even beyond February 5, "Super Tuesday", when more than half the delegates for the Democratic presidential nomination convention will be elected. As Mrs Clinton put it: "We're in it for the long run."
Mr Obama conceded defeat to her in New Hampshire, congratulating on her on a "hard-fought victory". But he hinted at some of the bitterness that underlay the primary contest as he once again struck back at her warning against offering "false hopes". In America, he said, there had "never been anything false about hope".
John Edwards, who had been hoping to deliver a knock-out blow to Mrs Clinton after pushing her into third place in Iowa, sounded a defiant note at a party for supporters. He said there were still "48 states left to go" in the presidential nomination process and that he would stay in the race so that the voices of all Americans could be heard.
Mrs Clinton's victory will trigger a surge of confidence through a campaign which had been rocking on its heels as late as yesterday evening when aides were spinning that a small margin of defeat to Mr Obama would be a good result for her.
But, amid polls suggesting she was headed for a second crushing defeat, some of Mrs Clinton's advisers had been urging her effectively to cede coming contests in Nevada and South Carolina later this month. They are said to have told her it would be more prudent to concentrate time and resources in California, New York and nearly 20 other states in what amounts to a national primary on February 5.
Mrs Clinton can now claim to have beaten the pundits and the odds just as her husband did 16 years ago when he took a surprise second place in New Hampshire – and went on to win the White House.
She is preparing to shake-up her much-criticised campaign team, as well as beginning a more aggressive focus on Mr Obama's record, warning even before the primary result that "at some point the free ride ends”.
Maggie Williams, a longtime Clinton confidante, was reportedly being brought in to co-ordinate activities. Roy Spence, another family friend, was also said to be lined to play a big role in the next stage of a campaign increasingly focused on "Super Tuesday".
Mr McCain's win represents another extraordinary resurrection for a candidate who was widely written off in the summer.
Today, he flies into the next Republican battlegrounds of Michigan and South Carolina, hoping to gather further momentum in a nomination contest which is verging on chaos with a succession of frontrunners stumbling over each other in recent weeks.
"We showed the people of this country what a real comeback looks like," Mr McCain said. "We're going to move on to Michigan and South Carolina and win the nomination."
Mr Romney, whose strategy of spending heavily on the early states appears now to be in tatters, will also head to Michigan – which votes next Tuesday – a state where his father was governor.
Mike Huckabee was in third place with just over 11 per cent support, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul vied for fourth.
The Republican field, which continues to have at least five viable candidates, meets for another television debate on Thursday night in South Carolina, where Mr Huckabee, the Iowa winner and former Arkansas governor, and Fred Thompson, another Southerner, are hoping to do well.
Mr Giuliani is continuing his high-risk strategy of focusing on the later, delegate-rich states such as Florida and New York. He waved off questions today about his slide in the polls, insisting he is still ahead in 15 states.
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Hillary turns up for work.Obama doesnt.Simple for me.
tom, london,
Experience wins.
Spin loses.
P.S. are you going to publish this comment this time?
dominic, Teddington,
Very ironic headline. Which polls exactly has she defied: the popular opinions polls or the voting booths? Somehow I think it's the latter. . .
Joe Horatio, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA
I'm delighted that Hillary won in NH. I truly believe (and have since the 90s) that Hillary has what it takes to make our country great again - in our eyes and in the eyes of the rest of the world. I do believe that her gender does make it more difficult than does Obama's skin color, but I'll be doing my part in Florida when we have our primary.
I think the Democratic National Convention will be pretty exciting this year. Much more so than in 2000 or 2004.
Michelline, Jacksonville, FL , US
The Clintons, notorioulsly fierce competitors, always attempt to destroy their opponents. As long planned Mrs. Clinton is relying on the senior vote and women to fulfill her presidential ambition. Emotional appeals and her daughter Chelsea's presence by her side will be repeated now that Mrs. Clinton has "found her voice," i.e. the emotional levers needed to win the vote. Bill Clinton, with the charisma his wife lacks, will sling mud and distort facts, ad nauseum, spreading fear against "the unknown," Mr. Obama. By necessity Barack Obama must recalibrate his own message to defend against attacks that are coming. The tenor of the race has already deteriorated a notch or two and the Clintons will continue to go negative to drive down their opponent's appeal. Obama has his work cut out for him.
Mark Mulligan, Shepherdstown, USA West Virginia
Christopher Chiovitti is right. We do have more pressing issues, but the US Presidential race is really like Desperate Housewives or any other tv series, it has its ups and downs, and a lot of spice - which makes British like Coronation Street or Crossroads. So it is the battle of the sitcoms. Having said that, I am behind Hillary all the way.
Stephen Pain, Odense, Denmark
"It seems really bizarre to me that you brits are so concerned with our presidential race that it is constantly your headline."
Err, if you looked you would notice The Times has a Global Edition and a UK Edition. If you access via a non UK IP address, you are presented with the Global version first. If you are in the UK, you see the UK headline.
So it isn't that UK residents are overly 'concerned' with the US but that The Times is trying to target it's headlines to the audience.
Paul, Toronto, Canada
At last America might get a decent president. Obama's good but I think Hiliary will be better. It's not just that she's more experienced but that she's more experienced internationally - with things the way they are, she'll need all that experience and more. Obama just doesn't have it. Look what happened the last time they elected a president with no foreign experience - does anyone think the world is really better off after Bush?
Anna Styles, London, UK
You write: "Woman voters, who deserted Mrs Clinton when she finished third in last week's Iowa caucuses, appeared to have backed her solidly by a margin of 47 per cent to Mr Obama's 34 per cent...." When the standard polling margin of error is approximately 5%, is this really "solid backing"? Do women actually coalesce to vote as a "group"? If they do, why did women "as groups" in Iowa and NH vote so differently? And just out of curiosity, which of the two candidates did male voters "solidly back"?
Dave , Saint John , Canada
I believe Hilary Clinton won because she opened up. Emotion is a card that will always cause women to stop and take stock. Perhaps Hilary understands this, perhaps, as certain cynics suggest, it was a well-timed attempt at garnering sympathy. I have mixed feelings about the campaign so far.
One thing is for sure however, the Democratic contest is so close, whatever it takes to win, will of course pay dividends.
My money is still on Barack Obama. I don't think America is ready to vote a woman into the oval office, but an African-American yes. Besides, I like Barack, he's naturally open and honest. I still regard Hilary as an icon, she's a wonderful example to us all and has played a large part in my own battle with self-esteem, but she has been tainted by decades in politics.
I would almost certainly vote for Barack if I was American. It is a rivetting contest, both Democratic and Republican, and I shall be following it carefully all the way to the wire.
Jennifer Hynes, Plymouth, England
It's still too early. I would regard the Democratic race as down to Clinton versus Obama, with Edwards holding out until the last minute to throw his support as the balance and earning perhaps the vice-presidential nomination. However, what do I know? The other 329,999,999 Americans don't seem to agree on anything, so it's still in the air.
My advice to Europeans: Watch the race, but don't try to butt in to influence it. The fiasco that the Guardian tried in 2004 may have tipped Ohio to President Bush. I know most of you want a Democrat to win, but whoever wins won't be George W. Bush, who is the person you really have an issue with. He's gone on January 20, 2009 and not a minute before.
Gregory Baker, Odenton, Maryland, USA
Christopher, given the extent to which your lame president has interfered in world affairs and made the globe a vastly more dangerous place, not only should the rest of the world be interested in who becomes your President, we should all be allowed to vote on it.
Bryan, London,
I offen wonder about people who support Hillary Clinton. It seems to me that Hillary is more concerned about being president then really wanting to change Washington. All I hear is a rehearse and slick double talk that makes me concerned that Hillary will do what is best for Hillary then for what is best for the country. The Clinton's political mechine reminds me of the Mafia, but instead of killing you for highlighting their faults, they will destory you politically and publicly. I just hope that the Democrate Party really looks hard on who can win in the general election. As a long time Democrate I can assure you I would not vote for Hillary for president.
Sophia Marshall, Aztec , US/New Mexico
The point for me is that people think that Clinton has more experience. Doesnt matter how or which experience it is, people think she has and she behave as she has it. So why people wouldnt believe?
Obama came up with a fresh message and with a positive speach. He is the person who says: Everything is going to be fine. People like that.
The problem is that Obama is more inexperience than Hilary. He seems to be.
In my opinion, people like Obama. The problem is that these people are afraid of what Obama would do if he arrives to President. By adder words people are afraid that if he arrives to Presidence he wouldnt be able to do a good job despise every good aspects about him.
Dani Major, Lisbon,
I truly do not understand the mindset of the Hillary supporter. She strikes me as completely phony (more than most politicians). I get the sense that she feels she is owed the presidency. I supported Bill, twice, but the way he has lashed out at Obama and the media is just pathetic.
Yes, Obama needs to get more specific about his platform, but how refreshing it is to hear someone talk again in inspiring tones about America's potential! Feel-good rhetoric, yes, but it worked for Reagan. And after 7 years of feeling like the world hates us, it's a nice change. (And like Michael from Nice said, are there really only two families that can run this country?)
As for experience, think of the last two presidents who had significant experience on the federal level -- Bush Sr. and Nixon -- and try to make the argument that experience is crucial.
(And the less said about Christopher from Flagstaff, the better.)
Doug, Chicago, USA
Experience? How does Clinton have more experience than Obama? By being first lady?
I am not aware of any U.S. president who did not have ADVISERS. That, my friends, is the key word. They are the ones who make or break a presidency.
What we need is a break with the past.....a new way of thinking.
The past thinking is what has put this country in trouble.
Experienced ADVISERS will always be available to fill in the gaps.
M.J., Iowa, U.S.A.
Really, who cares who wins the American Presidential election
. It really does not make any difference.
Denver Watt, Osaka,
The article states "while around 40 per cent of those taking part in the Democratic contest were registered Independents"
How if they are independents to they get to vote for which candidate they want for the Democratic Party?
David, Southampton, UK
A major blow to the credibility of the pseudo-science of polling. How can the pollsters all have screwed up in such a big way? Until further notice, they must rank as mere purveyors of tittle-tattle.
The journos made an equal mess of things by swallowing the pollsters' guff. Did any journalist write or say: let's wait until the result? Today the facts and the truth seems infinitely preferable to their gullible chit-chat.
Hillary 39, pollsters 0, media 0. A landslide.
Marcus Ferrar, Geneva, Switzerland
When Hilary was brought to "tears" on the campaign trail it was when asked how she maintained being so wonderful. She went on to answer by saying she "tried to eat right and exercise, even on the campaign trail". This is not a deep woman or a politician, this is a weasel on her way to the white house through pharmaceutical donations and back scratching from the old Washington guard. Disgusting, lets have a real politician please, Obama would do.
Jon, London, UK
I'm upset she won (just) because I truly dislike the Clinton family for what he did in the White House and for her standing by him only so she could win election using the well oiled Clinton election machine. To be so humiliated in public by him and not walk out, to me, showed she was an Olympic opportunist. The thought of her in office with him at her shoulder day in and out horrifies me. That there are so many skeletons in both their closets makes them unfit for office. Of course this is a very personal view but, as Obama says, it's time for change. IF she gets in and IF she stays there for 8 years (two terms) then the USA will have had 12 years with the Bush family and 16 years with the Clinton family. Two families for 28 years!!! Not good. That's what Obama means by 'time for change' and I think he's spot on.
michael martin, nice, france
If there's one criticism about Obama it's lack of experience. Surely Clinton/Obama is a dream ticket. Both symbols of change and a new energy, giving Obama time in the vice president's seat before running for president in (hopefully) eight years time. So I hope they both remain strong and at the top of their polls, and that they don't attack each other too much so that their union can be believable.
Tony, London,
All these results prove is that polls are at best hazy, 2 small states' votes are inconclusive and plenty of other runners have time on their side. Even Super Tuesday may not make it clearer.
Peter Bench , London,
To Christopher Chiovitti
As the US is one of our most successful colonies it is only natural that we take an interest in how it evolves. A bit like a broody hen.
John , Newcastle, UK
now, now, christopher of flagstaff. partly, we are interested in your election because we've been denied our own. partly we're interested because the choice of president does have a significant effect on the rest of the world. and partly we're interested simply because we are outward looking and keen to educate ourselves.
that's why so many of us have passports and can find most other countries on the globe as well.
it seems to me your comment that you can follow the election more easily here than at home is more a reflection of the quality of your domestic media. and an attitude that explains why so many of you don't have passports and probably couldn't even name your state capital (yours is phoenix, by the way).
p.s. victor.... hillary is "better than obama"? talk about damning with faint praise.
jem, london, uk
The American people don't realise how good a politician Hilary actually is. The press puts her down, but hopefully she'll win through and become a great president.
Hamad Lone, London, England
I think the reason we're so concerned is because the world doesn't need another George Bush right now (ie any of the Republican candidates besides McCain and Giuliani).
The huge Democrat bias aside, I think the headline "Newsflash: Sensible American voters DO exist" is worthy news.
Martin, St Andrews, Scotland
Does that mean that Hilary's tears signalled a 'watershed' in the campaign? (sorry, I couldn't resist)
Paul Francis, Brisbane, Australia
Hillary won't be able to cry all the way to the White House, will she. Its going to be a long hard and compelling race. Surely Obama represents the only candidate for real change. He will probably screw it all up of course.
BTW Where are all those great US darts players ? Have seen little of them at this weeks 'World Darts Champhionships'. Here in Frimley UK :)
Baggy Briggs, Frimley,
To Mr Chiovitti and Mr Williams - At the time of the french elections, there was extensive coverage of both the election, and the run up to it - and Sarkozy's love life is in the press a lot now too! There are frequently articles about goverment in Russia and China (although both tend to be dull, as the leaderships of neither country favour succession surprises). There is also some, but much less, coverage of other major EU states, and Australia but those choices affect us less. Such coverage is quickly forgotten.
Conversely the US president has recently led us into two wars: whether or not he should have done, or we should have followed is a separate debate.
That makes the US president important to the UK, and this election seems genuinely open, with the Democrats likely to choose either a woman (a first), or a black man (a first) and the Republicans not relying on an incumbent.
There is therefore novelty, and impact on the UK: coverage is therefore not a surprise.
Edward, Maidenhead, UK
At last common sense has prevailed..You might not like Hilary, but she is better to have as President then Obama
victor arram, westcliff on sea, essex
Makes you wonder if Clintons tears were real. No doubt well advised ones nevertheless.
Robert, Manama, Bahrain
The reason 'we' Brits follow this Presidential race so closely,
should, be blatantly, obvious to all.
Whomever, is elected, holds sway over everything 'British', from the day to day running of our country, to our foreign policy.
This is the harsh state of facts.
If, we inherit by proxy, a poor, indecisive leader, in the US, we suffer, a double whammy.
There reigns supreme, at the moment in UK, just such a leader.
We have no need for two following this dull unenlightened path, believe me!
prudence eely bond mcguire, LONDON, ENGLAND, UK.
Dave Williams - '' a population that is much more familiar with it's European neighbours"? Get serious.
The average Briton neither knows nor cares to know much about his European neighbours.
At the end of the day, the President of the US is the most powerful person on the planet and is still (though it may pain some) the leader of the free world.
The French President is not.
David, Thibessart, Belgium
Christopher Chiovitti of Flagstaff. As a dual US / UK citizen with homes and businesses in both countries I feel somewhat qualified to comment on your observation. The British media, and by that I mean radio, TV and newspaper, far surpasses anything that is produced in the United States. Coverage of world events here in the USA is laughable. Just as "World Series" baseball has no teams from any other part of the world, "World News" with Charles Gibson is all US content with less than 60 seconds devoted to international events. Man bites dog in Flagstaff gets more airtime than natural disasters and wars, (Iraq excepted), killing thousands in other countries. Just because the British media covers US matters doesn't mean there is no other content. At least it's there to read, watch or listen to unlike the media in the US
Michael Pearson, Nantucket MA / Newcastle, UK / USA
Hard to accept the reality: race and gender are very important in the US Presidential election. So Democratic Presidential candidate will be Hillary Clinton.
If a Republican candidate is good, then gender will play a important role. Fighting a good Republican candidate will be very tough for Hillary Clinton because of gender!
Regards,
Krishna R. Kumar, Udupi, India
It just shows you DON'T TRUST everything you read and see in the media!
One thing that's consistent in both Iowa and in New Hampshire, Democrat voters are showing up in record numbers. In both states, Democrat voters outnumbered Republican voters, which is awesome!
Arlene, LA, CA/USA
My faith in American politics has been restored. Hillary Clinton is an inspiration, the one candidate with real policies, experience, expertise and initiative, and the one person who can claim 'change is happening' and actually be able to achieve it. Let us hope that the 'learned' rude commentator below is not endemic of a future, increasingly bitter Obama campaign. And contray to what others have said, the general UK public is extremely interested in an enthralling US race for the Whitehouse, and the media should be commended for its coverage. VOTE HILLARY!!!
olivia keown, downpatrick, northern ireland
I'm laughing my ass off...the Dems will nominate a crazy bitch who has no chance of winning, and the GOP will nominate a suit and a haircut who has no chance of winning
Interesting times
Romulus, Drumlin City, Wisconsin,
"It seems really bizarre to me that you brits are so concerned with our presidential race that it is constantly your headline."
Chris - As a Brit who uses this website to get news from beck home, the obsession of the British media with America to the point one small States vote to go some way towards choosing who they want people to choose in an election to be President gets more paper coverage than an entire French election. America is very very important for many reasons but the political and journalist elite's constant preoccupation with what happens there just isn't shared by a population that is much more familiar with its European neighbours.
Dave Williams, Beijing, China
Many men believe that a lady tear is her last line of defence.
As usual, it may be related to that lack of understanding by a manâs perspective of what is happening to a woman in a dominated male environment.
One of the objectives of equality between female and male is that both parties are capable of doing the same jobs. A woman, as a man, is capable to be a president.
For millenniums, our cultures and history have been dominated and shaped by masculine male figures. The freedom movement and struggle for equality between sexes started from the beginning of 20th century, and it is still going on.
The major problem is that when we are talking of equality, indeed, its concepts come from a particular reference point of view, which is a white male European intellectual (academically speaking). Actually it applies only to the same group of people, not others.
When I saw Hillary Clinton moment of breaking down in tears, it reminded me of the moment that Lady Margaret Thatcher left the number 10 Downing Street. As then, many male audiences took it by mistake. Her tears were not only for losing her job.
We need to acknowledge that there are different aspects to life which are beyond a male dominated culture. When we accept to have a woman to take a post such a managerial or administrative job, we have to comply with the way that female mentally would like to make her decisions, not how we expect her to play like a domineering man.
Mack, Harrow/London, UK
Let's hope that Hillary Clinton wins this caucus, the democrat nomination and the presidency. It is about time that a good woman had the job, rather than useless and vacuous men.
John, Kenilworth,
i am disgusted that hellary one
matty, frankfurt, germany
Somehow I feel that the recent semi-breakdown was an excellent political ploy, designed to show a softer side to someone who would not shed a tear if she found out her husband was having an affair with one of his staff.
And what a result.
Jerry, Hong Kong, China
women have come out in groves to support clinton merely to insure a woman is seated as president.
r weaver, alton, illinois
It seems really bizarre to me that you brits are so concerned with our presidential race that it is constantly your headline. It is easier for me to keep up with it by watching your website than the New York times. Are you like Puerto Rico now? Don't you have more pressing issues on your home front?
Christopher Chiovitti, flagstaff, AZ