Gerard Baker, US Editor: Analysis
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It was, by common consent, the most startling turnaround in political fortunes, perhaps in the history of presidential primary elections.
The final internal polls for the Obama and Clinton campaigns told a remarkably similar story. Both showed that Barack Obama was riding the momentum of his win in Iowa last week and streaking away from Hillary Clinton. Mr Obama’s polls indicated a 14-point lead; Mrs Clinton’s were scarcely any better – her opponent was ahead by 11 points and ready to deliver what might well be a fatal blow to her campaign.
When election day dawned, the one nagging worry for the Obama team was that he would win by “only” single digits. “The Clintons are very good at spinning defeats into victories,” said one Obama aide. “Don’t be taken in.”
But soon after the polls closed it became clear that the Clintons did not need to spin anything. The first exit polls suggested that Mr Obama’s lead was much smaller than expected. When the real results came in, Mrs Clinton built a narrow lead in the early returns that she never lost.
She had not only pulled off a wholly unexpected victory over a surging candidate, but she had also stopped a burgeoning political movement in its tracks. What happened?
We should, perhaps, have remembered the way New Hampshire has voted so often in the past. The voters here seem to take particular care to reject the assumptions of the pundits, and the verdicts of the voters in Iowa. In 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992 and 2000, New Hampshire voters – sometimes Democrats, sometimes Republicans – flipped their primary on its head by choosing the candidate rejected in Iowa.
It seems that there is something to the argument that they may have just been saying, as they appear to have done in the past: “Slow down. This is a long campaign. We don’t want to anoint anyone the next president this early, least of all someone the American people know next to nothing about.”
Another answer, at least if the exit polls are to be believed, is that the Democratic race – for all its novelty of the first woman and first black candidate with a real chance of winning – followed a classic model for the contest for the party’s presidential nomination.
Mrs Clinton, simply, was able to do what all successful Democratic candidates have been able to do, and what she had spectacularly failed to do in Iowa – mobilise the powerful constituencies among Democratic voters to come out in large numbers for her, beating an opponent who relied on less traditional groups.
She won by large margins among party enthusiasts: lower income voters, older voters, union members, the less well educated and, above all, women. She won registered Democrats by 45 to 34 per cent; those with incomes less than $50,000 by 47 to 32; union members by 40 to 31; those with no college degree by 43 to 35; voters over 65 by 48 to 33 and women by 46 to 34.
Mr Obama, as he did in Iowa, won sizeable pluralities among new voters, independents (who are allowed to vote in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary), younger voters, especially students, and the well educated. He won independents by 41 per cent to 31 per cent; those with postgraduate degrees by 43 to 31, workers earning more than $50,000 by 40 to 35; 18 to 22 year-olds by 61 to 24 and first time voters by 48 to 36 per cent.
The difference between Iowa and New Hampshire was that there were just not as many of these new, younger, better-educated independent voters in New Hampshire, partly because many of them had chosen to vote in the Republican contest.
And so these first two contests set the stage for a classic, old-fashioned battle between the Democratic Establishment and the insurgency. It is a struggle between generations and socioeconomic groups.
It might also become, in the ensuing contests in places such as South Carolina and the rest of the South, as well as the main cities of the Northeast and Midwest, in part about race. There were few black voters in New Hampshire; many more will vote from now on, something that may confront the Democrats with some difficult challenges as the contest goes on.
In fact, as they left New Hampshire yesterday, some Obama aides wondered whether race could have played a part in Tuesday’s stunning upset for their candidate.
One thing that could not be explained simply was the difference between the opinion polls for the two parties. For the Republicans, they were accurate. Yet for the Democrats they were wildly awry, giving Mr Obama a large lead into polling day.
A quick look through recent political history finds only a few occasions on which such a stark divergence has occurred. In 1982, Tom Bradley, a Democrat, seemed to have a commanding lead in the opinion polls in the final days of the campaign for California governor. But on the day he lost to the Republican George Deukmejian. In 1989, Douglas Wilder won the Virginia governor’s race narrowly despite holding an average nine-point lead in the final polls. And in 1990, Harvey Gantt was beaten by the Republican Jesse Helms in a North Carolina Senate race in the same kind of upset.
What all those surprising losers had in common was that they were black. The phenomenon has become known as the “Bradley Effect”. Political scientists have discovered that some voters will tell pollsters that they intend to vote for a black candidate but in the privacy of the polling booth they vote for the white one. If it is true, it suggests that Mr Obama may be in for a few more unpleasant surprises in the next few weeks.
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Typical chattering classes article. I suppose obama`s slogan should now be VOTE FOR ME OR YOU ARE A RACIST.
Trevor, Southend, Essex
Do bears vote in the woods?
John Terris, Perpignan, France
The bottom line is that the US has not resolved its issues with race and so it keeps coming up in all ways and forms. And at the end of the day, many people, when within the privacy of the voting booth, revert to "the comfort zone"--a white man. In NH, I think that women were energized so many voted for Hilary. McCain's surge can be attributed in part to the comfort zone effect. While many people might have liked what they heard from Obama, when it came down to it, they couldn't mark the box for him. The US sadly, is not ready for a person of color to lead the nation.
Mary, Boston, USA
The Clintons have always thru out their lives have been civil right activist. Bill Clinton was considered the "Black President" and why do you think, because he has always supported the blacks, during his presidency he employed more blacks than any other President. Many Black leaders stand side by side with Hillary because most of them remember. Its up to us all to remember this and make sure all our youth knows this. It is only fair. I think the Obama campaign exagerated and manipulated Bill and Hillary's statement. However the media twisted even more. They did not care who got hurt in the process as long as their ratings are up. This was a very sad day because of thier manipulation of words into something ugly & unfair. We are all beyond and have come a long way. Dr.King was a true leader and we celebrate his BD with pride
white or blacks, this has been engraved in our hearts. People that engage in negative comments need to check their facts and know that we are all children of God.
VoteResponsibly08, Woodland Hills, California USA
As an American I find it unique that Obama is black and in this day and age we as a nation are having problems electing a black man. Will prejudices ever cease?
Charles Glasgow, Euless, Texas
If Obama was standing for president of Kenya would the press be discussing the possibility of the first white president of that country?
Steve Soden, London ,
Well, let's be honest. Didn't we do the same, albeit on a much more modest scale, with your colleague Michael Portillo (pronounced portiYo)?
Francis Tuttle, Madrid,
The whole business of the Democratic primaries has been more regional than racial. A Midwesterner, Obama trounced Hillary in Iowa and she won in the Northeast, a region where she is a senator. That said, Obama did remarkably well in New Hampshire for an "outsider." It would be interesting to watch how both do first in South Carolina and Florida and then on Super Tuesday. That would better suggest how each of them would fare in the end, more than the two initial races did.
Mehul Kamdar, Des Plaines, IL, USA
When race is mentioned its with the inalienable belief of black people that only white people can be racist...
Hugh E Torrance, London, England
In the words of Chuck D: "Don't believe the Hype".
alf parelli, london, uk
I must agree with Stephanie from Baltimore USA
There is discrimination in NewHampshire alive and well and it is well hidden.
Now with that said i have a great statement.
Clinton would be ok for pres but Obama would be best.
The Clinton had their turn in the Whitehouse now it`s time to move on and give someone else a chance.
This not only would give a new spirit for the nation so much needed, but America the great would be making history, great history so long overdue.
it would be the greatest mark for the Democratic party
sandra cardozo, RI, usa
Never heard of the "Bradley Effect." I have heard of the Bubba Factor.
Bill, Vineland, USA
polls and media will often be proved wrong simply because their reports always serve to mobilise support for the underdog whilst making those who support the apparent front-runner wonder whether they really need to bother.
it's rather sad that there is a feeling that whites won't vote for a black candidate and men won't vote for a woman. that leaves white men looking as if they don't care about what's right and fair. some would call that assumption racist and sexist.
jem, london, uk
Hmmm. Obama wims in Iowa and press comment is that the US is sexist. Clinton wins in New Hampshire and press comment is that the US is racist. Not quite that simple, methinks.
Fiona, London, UK
We really can't win can we--not matter what happens in the US it is only seen in a negative light! As a woman and a Demorcrat I think it is exciting that we have the possibility of having either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama as the nominee for the Democratic Party. Of course there are small minded people that will not consider either candiate because of race or gender. However, that is not reflective of the majority of Americans if you look at the number of people both candidates are drawing at their rallies. I will cast my vote for the candidate that is able to clearly outline how and what changes they will endeavor to make. "Haider, London" I am white and some of my friends are black as well as Asian. Please don't make such silly generalizations. Having traveled to Europe numerous times I was surprised at the racism expressed by people in different countries that I visisted. I know this comes as a shock, but not ALL Europeans are educated, urban, slim or non-racist.
Stephanie, Baltimore, USA
What amused me was how the pollsters 'blamed' the women's vote for Hillary Clinton's election. How do they know it was women who swayed the vote, I thought all votes were confidential?
sk, East Sussex, East Sussex
In the US, why are only white people called Americans? Black people for example, are called African Americans. But apart from the first ten years of US history, blacks have been in America as long as whites. White Americans came from Europe but nobody ever calls them 'European Americans'.
Den, Memphis, USA
Isn't it possible that race played a part in the opinion polls but not the primary election itself? People questioned by pollsters might not have wanted to appear racialist and said they would vote for Obama when they really meant to vote for Clinton.
It would be interesting for the polling organisations to analyse their own results for possible distortions relating to the ethnic origins of their interviewers.
Kevan, London, UK
Americans will never elect a black person. The day america elects a black person for president I will eat my hat.
Dr Izhar Khan, Aberdeen,
Of course race had a part. A big part. As sex does with Hillary. You are developing a keen eye for the obvious.
Bob Hall, New York, United States
I forgot the other thing. The media played up the huge surge to Obama in a state where Independents can vote in either party. Many Independents wanted to vote for McCain as they had in 2000, but also wanted to help Obama, so they lined up for Obama. But with all the media claiming it was going to be a landslide for him, I and others think a large slice of Independents decided their votes weren't needed by Obama, but McCain needed them to win and went for him.
Joshua, Buckeye, Az/USA
Did anyone suggest that it was down to sex that Hilary lost in Iowa? No? What a suprise...
Sarah, London, UK
Have any Times reporters been looking at 'voting fraud' in New Hampshire? Apparently, where votes were counted by hand they matched the opinion polls. Where they were counted electronically they gave more votes to Hillary Clinton. I saw a comment on Fox News, if you google 'voter fraud new hampshire' there is more info. Another comment from someone, in NH, that the whole family had also voted for Ron Paul - however their voting district showed no voted for him.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
How often have the women won the day with tears?
Can America win a war with tears?
Senevi ratne, London, united kingdom
Race certainly played a part in the McCain/Huckabee/Romney contest.........McCain is white, while the other two are....
Hold on, I'll come in again.
Eric, Ottawa, Canada
Wondered how long it would be before someone started bleating on about race.
As soon as something does not work out for a coloured person, it is straight away put down to race!
Grow up!
Pete, St Albans, England
I was in Manhattan, and I noticed the Bradley when I was out in the evenings all the racial groups are in their own groups no real interracial mixing at all. I spoke to a couple of people when i was out there about that and they said to me it's not like London here, everyone here really only hangout with their own racial groups, blacks with blacks, latinos with latino and whites with whites and asian (well orientals with orientals). I suppose it just symptomatic of this kind of segregation.
haider, London,
Hillary said that she thought the debate Saturday night was the turning point. She may be right, although immediately after the debate many of the pundits said she had hurt herself by seeming "strident."
Barack may have hurt himself in the debate. He seemed vague, tired and even a bit unengaged. And he committed the "sin" of not forcefully responding to some pointed critiques from Hillary. Specifically she said his NH chairman was a lobbyist; that Barack had said he would oppose the Patriot Act then supported it; and that he said he was opposed to the Iraq war yet supported the war funding. Barack chose not to even respond to any of these criticisms, thus leaving them "hanging out there" and passing up on an opportunity to make Hillary look unfair and/or uninformed.
So he left me with the question, if he doesn't respond to Hillary's attacks, why should I think he'll respond to the GOP candidate's? I'm a big fan of Barack's but his performance left me a bit uneasy.
Mitch, Olney, MD, USA
Mr. Baker knowa less about America than the average skid row bum. Why did he not explain how Obama got elected in Illinois by the connivence of two news paper reporters? They forced the Republican candidate to withdraw by one of the dirtiest series of biased articles concerning the candidates personal life that had no connection to his qialifications.
Ray, Gurnee,
The key point that's missing here is that Iowa was not a secret ballot. New Hampshire was. Sadly, Baker is right.
Mark, Orlando, USA
Irrespective of his colour, Obama is a relatively inexperienced political lightweight.
He was in the end as we english say,' too cocky by half '.
edwina rigby, Blackburn, England
You Brits are hilarious. If Americans are so afraid of having a black man or a woman for president, why didn't the charming, handsome, and WHITE MALE John Edwards come in first place instead of a very distant third?
Susan P. Widdowson, Georgia, USA
According to Beverly Daniel Tatum's authoritative book, the more qualified the black candidate (in this case, for a job), the less likely a white person will completely trust those qualifications. So Obama likely has a hard row to hoe, and lots of training in race relations is needed--fast--if people are to vote based on reality and not hidden prejudices.
Jennifer French, Flourtown, PA
Its the independants who caused the suprise. As most of them are unkeen on the old party establishments, they are the natural followers of either McCain or Obama. When most of the polls suggest that Obama will have an easy win, they went to support a less secure McCain to ensure he got the GOP nomination. These independants will now less trusty of polls, and a sizable of them will return to Obama in the subsequent primiaries, those in which independant can vote across party lines the help a weakened Obama. More nasty supriese may be instored for McCain.
W H CHIK, Hong Kong ,
"here were few black voters in New Hampshire; many more will vote from now on, something that may confront the Democrats with some difficult challenges as the contest goes on."
What are you talking about? You think black voters will abandon the democrats? Why would they do that?
Clinton won in NH because Obama's bubble was mostly hype.
Republicans want Obama to win the Dem ticket because they'll have a chance of beating him, whereas they'll face a much tougher challenge with Hillary.
Living in California, it's always amusing to read Baker's rehash of the previous night's talking points on Fox news. Never pertinent, always obtuse.
The Times was once a great paper.
John McD, San Francisco, ca, USA.
I don't buy the Bradley effect as an explanation. The thing to note is that Obama's numbers were pretty much spot on with the polls. The question was becoming not only if he'd win in double digits, but if he'd get to 40. He finished at 36. That's pretty much where the polls had him. It was Clinton's that were way off, putting her in the mid-20s.
Hillary got a boost, pure and simple. The media has been waiting for the first poll discrepancy to pull out the Bradley effect as an issue, and New Hampshire seemed like the perfect opportunity. Unfortunately my hack friends, the polls were dead on for Obama. Luckily for Clinton, there were enough undecided to swing it her way.
Done. The past 7 days are, in the grand scheme of things, an impressive Obama victory on a scale that no hacks would have even dreamed of a couple of months ago. The losers weren't the pollsters, it was the media writing premature obituaries for Clinton. Hopefully they've learned their lesson.
Pete Start, London,
It turns out that having the democratic nomination come down to a African-American and woman is a boon for Anti-Americanism. What it means is that if Obama wins can be assumed he did so because of the misogyny of American voters and Clinton wins it can be assumed that is was because of voter racism. So no matter what happens, it can assumed that is was because Americans are awful people with an awful world view. (Except, of course, the is pretty much the default condition for many).
David, Menlo Park, USA, California
Of course race entered the equation, and should Hilary run in November I'm certain that gender will then come into play. If Democrats have no-one for whom to vote then I suspect a low turnout which will serve to bolster Republican ambition. Once again the Democrats appear determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Susan T. , Dayton, Ohio, USA.