As soon as Rudy Giuliani bounds on stage before a crowd of garishly clad Floridians, the proof that he has run the most unconventional Republican presidential campaign of modern times is written across his face.

As his rivals tear across the Sunshine State with a pallor induced from weeks in frozen Iowa and New Hampshire, the former Mayor of New York grins widely at his audience looking relaxed — and with some Florida colour in his cheeks.

“It’s great to be here,” he says to a hollering crowd, many dressed in golfing slacks, shorts and wildly florid summer dresses. As they chant his name and wave signs proclaiming “Florida is Rudy Country” he continues in his staccato New York twang: “How can you not be happy when you’re here, right?”

In five days’ time Mr Giuliani will discover if his gamble of ignoring the first six nominating states, to stake all on victory in Florida on January 29, has paid off. He says that he is having the time of his life in the state — in a month of almost non-stop campaigning here he has visited Little Havana, in Miami, made speeches near Disney World and sped around the Daytona Beach racetrack — and he is grinning widely. Yet behind the smiles, the former Republican frontrunner has much to worry about now that his battle-hardened rivals have arrived to render this Rudy country no more.

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While John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee slugged it out in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina Mr Giuliani decamped to Florida, sat upon his lead in the national polls and his reputation as “America’s mayor” and argued that he could render the early contests irrelevant by winning the Sunshine State this Tuesday. It will be a victory, he argues, that will propel him to triumphs across the country on February 5, “Super Tuesday”, when 22 states vote.

For much of the year such an untested and high-risk strategy looked plausible. He continued to hold formidable poll leads in Florida and in the biggest Super Tuesday prizes of California and his home state of New York. He defied political gravity by maintaining a lead in the Republican national polls, a remarkable achievement for a thrice-married, proabortion, pro-gun control defender of gay rights. His record in cutting crime rates in New York drastically, his impressive performance after the September 11 terror attacks, his ultra-hawkish foreign policy approach — and his argument that he was the most electable Republican — helped to appease many conservatives.

Then the political world descended on Iowa and New Hampshire and Mr Giuliani sank from view quicker than an Everglades alligator. He also underestimated just how severely the early state voters would punish him for the heresy of ignoring them. He finished sixth in Iowa, fourth in New Hampshire, sixth in South Carolina and sixth in Michigan, averaging less than 4 per cent of the vote.

The only media coverage surrounding him was not the type a presidential candidate seeks. His close friend and former New York police chief, Bernie Kerik, was indicted on corruption charges. Stories surfaced about the use of taxpayers’ money, when Mr Giuliani was mayor, to fund his security detail while he visited his mistress for secret trysts — and to provide the lover in question, Judith Nathan, with free transport. He later married her. His second wife discovered that he was leaving her when he announced it a news conference.

This week Mr Giuliani has seen his former 18-point lead in Florida disappear. Last night, a new poll delivered more bad news: Mr McCain and Mr Romney on 25 and 23 points respectively; Mr Giuliani with just 15 per cent support. Even more ominously, Mr McCain has also, according to one poll, edged ahead in Mr Giuliani’s home turf of New York. On Tuesday the Arizona senator, to ram home the point that New York is not necessarily Rudy country either, held a fundraiser in the heart of Manhattan and raised $1 million (£500,000).

Mr Giuliani has several strengths in Florida. It is home to hundreds of thousands of retired people from New York and his tough stance against terrorism appeals to the state’s huge number of current and retired military personnel. His record as a tax cutter appeals to Florida’s big business community and wealthy pensioners.

Yet Mr McCain has arrived as a Vietnam veteran and former prisoner of war, and proudly proclaimed yesterday the endorsement of “Stormin’ ” Norman Schwarzkopf, of the first Gulf War fame. Mr Romney, meanwhile, a highly successful venture capitalist turned politician, is using the current economic turmoil to focus on his business acumen. It is the message that won him Michigan and appears to be finding fertile ground in Florida.

Yet all is not lost for Mr Giuliani. The volatile nature of the race has helped him. Three different candidates have won contests and there is still no clear front-runner. He is still in a statistical tie with his rivals, according to the latest poll.

Florida is a huge, multicultural state with large swaths of moderates, Mr Giuliani’s natural supporters. If he pulls off victory he will be right back in the thick of things and heading into Super Tuesday with the Republican battle more chaotic than ever.

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