WHEN Hillary Clinton started running for president, Sue Whitney, 54, was on
her side. “I thought, Yeah! I’m all for her, but now I’m getting a little
scared.”
Whitney turned up to see Clinton, 60, at a rally at a school in Virginia last
week in the hope of rekindling her enthusiasm. “I guess I’m scared about the
way Barack Obama is moving ahead and taking the lead. I want a candidate who
will be elected and I’m worried some people won’t vote for her either
because she is a woman or they just don’t like her.”
She noticed that on Super Tuesday, when 22 states voted last week: “A lot of
white males went for Obama. It made me wonder whether it is harder to elect
a woman than a black man.” The audience at the school was almost exclusively
made up of middle-aged women, together with a number of polite students who
were quietly for Obama.
Whisper it softly, but Obama, 46, might be heading for victory in the race for
the Democratic presidential nomination. Voters have already thumbed their
noses at most predictions, but Tad Devine, a leading political consultant
who advised Al Gore and John Kerry on their presidential campaigns, said:
“If you ask me who has the advantage today, I’d say Obama.”
The jug-eared senator for Illinois, once derided as a political novice,
battled the year-long frontrunner to a dead heat on Super Tuesday, winning
13 of the 22 states, even though Clinton carried California, the biggest
prize. He is expected to win the crucial “Potomac” primary contests in
Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC (so called after the Potomac river
which splits the region) in two days’ time.
A Time magazine poll showed Obama beating John McCain, the all-but-confirmed
Republican nominee, by 48%-41% because of his strength among independent
voters, whereas Clinton drew even on 46%. “It is hard to run against a
movement,” Vernon Jordan, a veteran ally of the Clintons, sighed.
Peggy Noonan, President Ron-ald Reagan’s former speech-writer, noted in The
Wall Street Journal that Republican professionals could recognise a winner
in the “brilliant young black man”, even if some Democrats had not cottoned
on yet.
“Mrs Clinton is losing this thing. It’s not one big primary, it’s a rolling
loss, a daily one, an inch-by-inch deflation. The trends and indices are not
in her favour,” she said. “She doesn’t have the excitement, the great whoosh
of feeling that accompanies a winning campaign.”
The danger for Clinton is that she could fall into the trap avoided by Obama
over race. She is at risk of becoming the Hallmark Channel candidate - the
women-friendly station she paid to run her eve-of-election rally last week -
who is admired by women, but spurned by men.
The biggest shock was that she had to lend her own campaign $5m (£2.56m) in
January after Obama raised $32m seemingly effortlessly from small donors
that month. She kept the news quiet before Super Tuesday lest it gave the
impression that her candidacy was floundering. Her rival, whom she chided in
a debate for keeping an untidy desk, had broken the Clintons’ mighty $118m
money machine.
The plane flights where she mingled with journalists, pretending to be their
stewardess and serving them peach cobbler, came about only because she could
no longer afford a separate private plane, it emerged last week. A look at
her financial returns revealed that $18,551.80 had been spent on an “event”
at a Chicago steakhouse, $500,000 on parking fees and nearly $4m on
political consultants in the run-up to Super Tuesday.
Obama’s aides stepped up the pressure this weekend by challenging Clinton to
release her tax records and reveal the source of her personal $5m loan. “For
someone who claims to be fully vetted, hiding a campaign loan from voters
until after Super Tuesday and refusing to release your tax returns until
after the primary doesn’t seem like the best way to prove that there are no
surprises for the Republicans to find once they start digging,” said
spokesman Bill Burton.
Obama warned last week that Republicans would find a new “dump-truck” of
allegations to unload on her should she win and said: “I’ll just say that
I’ve released my tax returns.” The Wall Street Journal has already drawn
attention to the peculiar deal whereby Bill Clinton is set to receive a
payoff of up to $20m from his friend Ron Burkle, his West Coast bachelor
buddy, for severing relations with the Yucaipa group of companies, which are
partly linked to the ruler of Dubai. Clinton believes that Obama will be
“swiftboated” by the Republicans if he wins – a reference to the campaign to
denigrate John Kerry, a Vietnam veteran, at the last election. So far,
investigations into Obama’s drug use as a young man have produced few shock
revelations. The New York Times reported yesterday that university friends
regarded him as a model of moderation.
Vinai Thummalapally, a former student friend said: “If someone passed him a
joint, he would take a drag. We’d smoke or have one extra beer, but he would
not even do as much as other people on campus. He was not even close to
being a party animal.”
However, Obama faces ethical difficulties over Tony Rezko, his long-time
patron in Chicago, who is scheduled to stand trial on March 3 for attempting
to extort money from companies in return for political favours. The
all-important Texas and Ohio primaries, where Clinton’s support among
Hispanics and blue-collar workers should work to her advantage, take place
the next day.
According to an internal memo “inadvertently” leaked by Obama’s campaign, the
race could be tied to the very end. It predicted that Obama would win 19 of
the remaining 27 primaries and caucuses but lose the biggest states of
Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, leaving him just 17 delegates ahead. In
theory, it would then be up to the superdelegates, the 796 party notables
who are entitled to a free vote at the Democratic National Convention in
August, to decide on a presidential nominee.
Devine, the political consultant who participated in the last brokered
convention in the 1980s, believes they should “cool their heels” for now.
“If we signal to voters, particularly young first-time voters, that the
process is dominated by insid-ers, that could be very disillusioning,” he
said. “It would be a terrible signal to the millions of people who have
voted that their voices don’t count.”
It has not stopped “first daughter” Chelsea Clinton, 27, from pursuing
superdelegates at home and on their mobile phones, asking them to support
her mother. Sharon Mast, a superdelegate from Washington state, who received
a call, was not swayed. “For some people, it may be very important to get
that personal touch. She’s a very pleasant and poised young lady, but at
this point, I’m uncommitted.”
Celebrities such as Whoopi Goldberg have also had Chelsea on the line. A
television presenter was suspended on Friday for suggesting that the first
daughter was being “pimped out in some weird sort of way” by her family.
Husband Bill is back, if a little chastened, after his controversial role as
attack dog backfired in South Carolina last month. He campaigned in Virginia
yesterday and vowed to carry on “promoting” his wife - while recognising
that as a former president, it was difficult for him to act as her
“defender”. Oddly enough, the message that Obama is winning is being spread
in a subtle but persistent way by Clinton’s own aides in the hope that her
“underdog” status will spark a sympathy vote.
After proclaiming Clinton as the “inevitable” victor of the Democratic
primaries, Mark Penn, her chief strategist, changed track last week and
labelled Obama the “establishment” candidate. Her rival, correctly, saw a
trap. “I’m always the underdog,” Obama insisted.
It was Bill Clinton who first spotted that there was mileage in presenting
Hillary as the “insurgent” in the New Hampshire and Nevada contests,
enabling her to win the postmatch spin. Clinton emerged from Super Tuesday
narrowly ahead last week, winning 50.2% of the popular vote to 49.8% for
Obama. On the night, he won a slim majority of delegates, but lagged behind
her when superdelegates were factored in.
That gap could close after last night’s contests in Louisiana, Nebraska,
Washington state and the US Virgin Islands and this week’s Potomac primary
votes.
The cash crunch was brushed off by some Clinton aides late last week as
nothing to worry about. Indeed, they seized on it as an opportunity to
demonstrate her fundraising prowess with ordinary voters as opposed to her
fan club of millionaire busi-nessmen and celebrities.
The appeal for sympathy worked. In a stunning reversal of fortune, Clinton’s
camp copied Obama’s internet fundraising tactics and claimed to have raised
$10m from 75,000 donors since the beginning of February - $8.4m of which
arrived after Super Tuesday. Ruth Sandoval, 51, a single mother who was at
Clinton’s rally in Virginia, gave her campaign $50 last week. “I donated to
her for the first time. When I saw she had put her own money in, I said,
‘You know, it’s time to get off the sidelines and send her some money’. I
wish I could give her more. It’s that important to me.” For some however, it
was a worrying sign that Clinton might not be as competent on day one in the
Oval Office as she relentlessly claims. “It makes you wonder, how did she
spend it all? She’s responsible for her own campaign,” said Whitney. “The
buck stops here. You wonder if it’s a reflection of what’s going to happen
to the federal budget.”
Main donors are troubled. Morris Reid, who threw a lavish fundraiser for
Clinton in the exclusive beach resort of the Hamptons last summer but has
also donated to Obama, said he could not go back to her old donors as they
were “maxed out”.
“She relied too much on the high-powered consultants. She was running a
full-scale general election campaign and had that level of staff on the
payroll when she should have been running a primary campaign,” Reid said.
When John McCain ran out of money for a similar reason last summer, Bill
Clinton said: “I’ve never seen a man more abused by his support staff than
McCain was.” McCain went on to recover by fighting an insurgent campaign -
as Clinton’s team has duly noticed - but there are warning signs for Hillary
ahead.
Obama has been expanding his base of support, while hers has been shrinking to
white women and Hispanics, loyal though they are. As women provide over 55%
of Democratic voters, her support from her own sex has hitherto been a
powerful source of strength.
According to CNN’s exit poll of Super Tuesday voters, 53% of women supported
Clinton as opposed to 42% for Obama. Nearly two-thirds of Hispanic women
supported Clinton (64%), while 59% of white women voted for her as opposed
to 35% for Obama. However, Obama beat Clinton among men by 50% to 44% and
was supported by white men by 47% to 45%.
Dick Morris, Bill Clinton’s former polling guru - no admirer of Hillary -
believes she remains the frontrunner because women will propel her to
victory. “Obama may inspire, but it is Hillary who quietly wins the . . .
women who struggle at minimum-wage jobs and desperately need public schools,
mass transit, day care, health insurance and public services.”
Clinton believes that voters will eventually choose her to battle with the
Republican she calls “her friend”. At the rally in Virginia, she said: “Who
would be our best candidate to stand on stage with Senator McCain and talk
about national security and the economy?”
Whitney is not so sure. “As a woman, I’m certain she’s capable of being
commander in chief, but the men in my family agree she is smart, but say
they won’t vote for her because she’s a woman,” she said. “It’s too bad, but
she’s got a fight on her hands.”
Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia said: “For
so long she played it just right. Being the female candidate was the
subtext, not the text of her campaign, but it has become more explicit and
that does have an effect on men.”
When John Edwards, the former senator for North Carolina, withdrew from the
race, much of his support among white men migrated to Obama. “Some dropped
out altogether and are not voting,” said Sabato. “They could end up voting
for McCain. He’s regarded as a man’s man.”
Video: Obama Opens
Office In Maryland
Video: Obama,
McCain dissect their wins
Video: Romney's
withdrawal speech
white males are voting for obama ahead of clinton which tells me gender is a bigger issue than race. people would still vote for a man as president before a woman.
however will this white male vote still be there in november for the genaral election? i think race will play its part here and i can see john mccain coming out on top.
mikey green, birmingham,
I myself have the tendency to think that once you start attacking other people in politics, you'd have a chance of your votes being decreased in general. Oh well. I hope Bush's mistakes will be corrected as soon as possible, because it's caused me to have a very low opinion on entering on American ground. Hopefully that will change.
Eli Dirkx, Antwerp, Belgium
In the US and in Australia an emerging minority is experiencing a painful process that will have a significant and long term impact on the psyche of its people. In the US, a very large number of constituents are caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, those who witness a choice between two anathema, one black, one female; on the other hand those who will suffer defeat at the hands of the rock. Here, there are some who have just received an introduction to being human: people fail, make mistakes and apologise for errors of feeling and judgment. We learn to create good will, by whatever means at our disposal – including words – even if the words are just words. It may be that some sort of catharsis is in progress in both countries. There are some piercing similarities: for instance, the notion that somehow words are of no great import to the situation. Bill’s wife says Obama’s all hot air and over here Horatio’s speech last Thursday was fairly blunt. Both of the emerging world leaders, Obama and Rudd, have little or no baggage tying them to the establishment. What is happening here and in the US can create substantive, positive “Change†for our children.
John Stroh, Brisbane, Australia
"Tad Devine, a leading political consultant who advised Al Gore and John Kerry on their presidential campaigns..."
Well there's a ringing endorsement from a two time loser.
There's still a long way to go. After Ohio and Texas things might be clearer, but it could go to the wire. Apart from journalists and arm-chair pundits the only beneficiary then is McCain.
G, London,
I fit into the demographic that supports Hillary. Last week at my primary I voted for Obama, who I've supported all year.
The one thing in this article that I can see as having a huge backlash against Hillary is the angry women and old style 70's type feminists who are still fighting the battles of yesteryear.
They are simply becoming an embarrassment to women like me who don't hate men and feel we are equal and fine.
The country needs the brilliant mind and cool judgment and level head of Obama. He is able to effortlessly build this formidable organization from scratch in a year. His management and ability are apparent and he has the mind to grasp the problem immediately. He would make an excellent president.
HRC is more suited to head of a think tank or agency. But, she doesn't have the temperment to be president and the baggage would sink her before fall.
diane, machesney park, illinois, usa
Barack Obama is a reasonable and good person who can bring honesty and unity to our country.
Read Sally Bedell Smith's "For the Love of Politics" and you will decide that another four or eight years of a Clinton White House will not be in the best interests of our country. The behind-the-scenes manipulations might be politics as usual - but we need to get away from that and take a more unified approach to move our country forward.
Also - remember that Bill will be the unofficial Vice-President which will lead to more negatives and Bedell Smith's book reinforces the number of faulty efforts of Bill Clinton's administration
Lois Peterson, Belmont, California, United States
Most don't like her because of her divisive personality. She is omnipotent and lacks the abilities of a true leader. Hillary's political machine relies on divisive lies and slandering to win over the uneducated, the uninformed, the old, as well as the disgruntled, bitter women that are angry at men. I could very well vote for a women but not this one. I think the United States is moving on, gender and race are not first and foremost on voter's minds. Thank Obama for that.
John, Monterey, California
To you women out there wanting to elect HRC because this is the one chance to elect a woman in your lifetime, PLEASE consider the country, the citizens, the children and your grandchildren.
I would love to see a female president in my lifetime, but the right woman, not just the one that happens to be available right now. Please consider the difference between a Manager and a Leader. HRC has said she will be in control of every little thing in the government. This is an incredibly naïve statement. We need a Leader, not a Manager.
I hate to say it, but Obama message that encourages us to take a step closer to fixing this country ourselves is the message that resonates best with me (and obviously many others). He is the one that thus far has helped rekindle that spirit of civic engagement and community that is the lifeblood of this experiment called democracy. He offers us all empowerment like we’ve never seen.
In the end, it’s not about a black or white or man or woman; It’s about us!
Susan, San Diego, CA
I admire Obama. I'm Turkish so I can't vote for him.
But I would advise never, ever take a Clinton for granted. They will keep come back on you, even when you are not looking.
Obama has to campaign now like he is 10% behind her. Nothing else will do. But I think after NH, they know that. Hopefully lesson learned.
Obama 08.
Orhan Catan, Istanbul, Turkey
Those who vote for Obama are, he says, choosing "hope over fear, unity over division and the future over the past." By implication, Hillary's supporters are choosing the reverse. Hispanics, many of whose immigrant status in America is tenuous at best and who typically find themselves at odds with African Americans over employment etc., strongly fear the change in the status quo that Obama has been trumpeting. They already have hope in the form of Hillary, and her election as president effectively safeguards their future. For women it's more a case of "Would you trust a man over one of us?" But on closer examination, the woman they have chosen is a follower, not a leader. By and large, her supporters are electing to remain semi-enslaved and cynical in a polarised society, and with the hope of only relatively modest self-advancement, rather than to embrace a dream that might well help to empower them to transcend their shackles altogether. Who would you say has the winning formula?
Simon, London, UK
I am baffled by this continued Obama has bought change stuff, what has he done to bring change? Hell what are his policies, truth is none of his supporters know! Theyr going for some pie in the sky change. Obama says Clinton is decisive but she hasn't encouraged black people to vote for her cos she's a 'brother'. I find Obama to be all spin and style, I keep hearing about his character! Where was he during the Jena incident, hiding that's where and try now if your black and don't vote for him your a traitor. That nasty rhetoric was put out there by his supporters he's made race a minefield, when Bill Clinton said correctly that his whole Iraq policy was a fantasy all we heard was that Bill Clinton was a racist, Obama didn't attempt to set the record straight at all, if he wins the primary I'd rather vote Mcain.
Lanre, London, united kingdom
Here here. Voting for anybody without looking at their history is stupid. Both Obama and Clinton got Ivy League law degrees. Hilary used her's to sit on the board of WalMart and defend a Meat Packing corporation that packed the hind quarters of a rat in a can of beef and sold it to a guy. (this from Hilary's official biographer via NPR) Obama, on the other hand, became a community organizer on the South Side of Chicago. I work with the youth from South Central L.A. who are in Juvenile Work Camps. I know for a fact it took heart for him to do that. Now if that does not enlighten people, how about Barak voting against this criminal war in Iraq every chance he got, while Hilary has supported the Bush administration's stance with every vote. Talk like a progressive, vote like a Bush. Sorry lady, not this election. Let me just say that every woman who votes for Hilary with out digging a little deeper into her record deals a GIGANTIC blow against true feminists everywhere.
Peter, Los Angeles,
It doesn't matter if you are a woman or a man, we need a strong Democrat that can win over the Republicans any day and I just don't see Hillary as being that person. I am scared to death that woman is going to win, as she is power-hungry and seemingly more and more dishonest. The Republicans WANT Hillary to be the democratic candidate, as they have many tricks up their sleeves to beat her in the presidential race. That fact, above all else, is what scares me that the Democrats and all Americans, for that matter, may be in for four more years of hell.
Sara, Iowa City, IA
"Regardless of today's results, the decisive moment will come in Texas, where current polls put her ahead of her rival."
Yes, and she will probably win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. However, she needs to win by a huge margin in order to look like she's not just hanging on by her fingernails. And in every single state where Obama has the luxury of spending time in a state, he has cut into her leads significantly.
Plus, all of his jaw dropping February wins will bring him so much more cash than she will have at her disposal, he will be able to greatly outspend her on advertising. The fact that she had to loan her campaign money is appalling. There can be no other reason than gross mismanagement. She went into every state with the enormous advantages of immediate name recognition and an extremely well liked former president for a spouse. There is no possible way she needed to spend as much as Obama did with that kind of a head start.
Now, though, it's a different story. It's a movement
Rebecca, Las Vegas, NV
<<Whitney is not so sure. “As a woman, I’m certain she’s capable of being commander in chief, but the men in my family agree she is smart, but say they won’t vote for her because she’s a woman,†she said. “It’s too bad, but she’s got a fight on her hands.†>>
It seems american white males are such a pig! They probably wouldn't vote for their own mothers, sisters, or wives, if these females in their lives decide to run for presidency.
And now about Obama. I don't see what is on the other side of his "bridge to the future " . It seems the other side is devoid of any concrete plans. He says once elected president he will try to unite everyone to build a better future. So on his first day at office will he call for a convention of democrats, republicans and independents and try to unite them to build a plan for better america ? Hmmm.... I think there is time and space for such utopian dreams, but NOT NOW! We now need solutions to the country's immediate problems.
voirob, north potomac, MD, USA
Instead of worrying about who can beat McCain - who himself has to beat the appalling record of the Republican party's worst modern President and his GOP advisors - the real concern for democrats is which candidate can restore some trust in politicians and balance the universal cynicism magnified by recent years of 'political abuses'.
It would be extremely regrettable, a stunning advert for non-democracy .if the democratic choice ends up being down to 'super delegates'.
Democrats have an unusually heavy burden to uphold the 'dream of democracy' in this year of 2008.
Keith, Dalsland, Sweden
this is so ridicolous, the writer is suggesting that men are not voting for clinton because she is a woman, that is complete rubbish and infact women are not voting for Obama because he is a man! Firstly men are voting for her and so are women, however recently here numbers have been falling not only by men but my women, blacks, latinos and basically everyone else and that is due to Obamas popular policies and ability to lead. The woman mentioned in the article is voting for clinton simply because she is a woman, and as a woman myself I feel insulted that she thinks I should do the same. Vote for the best candidate not on gender, race etc. And to correct your point men are quite evenly split between Obama and Clinton and have only been suporting Obama more then Clinton recently (as have almost ALL other groups INCLUDING women) while women have unually high support figures for clinton simply beacuse they are voting based on gender, if men did the same you'd call them sexist.
patrica, new york,
I feel change in the air.Obama for America!
Out with the old divisive politics embraced by the Clintons which results in gridlock in congress.In with Obama and the new politics of building bipartisan coalitions to get things done for the American people.
Mrs Clinton touts 35 questionable years of experience including her 16 years as Arkansas first lady and First lady of the Clinton era.What is 'experience'if you cannot get things done due to deep divisions which she fosters.
She is not electable in November as up to 47% of the country hate her.Her recent gutter politics on Obama will add to that percentage.
I hope more and more people see the light of day
Hillary's claim to "35 years of experience." Subtract her years spent as first lady of Arkansas and in the White House, and her time working as a lawyer in the Rose Law Firm and in other jobs. As Reason Magazine's Steve Chapman reported in November, Hillary Clinton has "just under eight years of experience in elective office --
Philippa, Lebanon, USA,NJ.
G Comit, you are wrong about african woman in SA. The ANC did not exclude woman. Industry has als not excluded woman (eg affirmative action which includes woman)
Please check your facts before posting.
Im a white South African woman who would support Obama (if i could vote) as I believe in his character over Clintons.
I am not going to be persuaded by the candidates sex or colour.
And I dont think Clinton can beat MCCain. Obama however may have a chance.
andj, london, uk
Obama has done what no one has ever done to this great US nation. He has brought change....... he has made people believe in themselves again...... and he has inspired hope in every American who gets to listen and know him. It is time to embrace this change that we have so much yearned for.
VIVA OBAMA.
Jim, Aiea, Hawaii
David Cunard of Los Angeles, for a Democrat, you do an excellent job echoing the Republican talking points. Maybe you need to change your party registration.
Andrew, Phoenix, USA
IF Mr Obama becomes the nominee, then there will be at least four years of a further Republican presidency. When John Kerry, a Democrat, was campaigning, there were those who suggested that Mr McCain would be an ideal vice-presidential candidate. He is not so far to the right to make his policies entirely unpalatable to many Democrats and despite their protestations, many of those who would have preferred Mitt Romney will continue to vote for the party candidate. The only reasonable chance Democrats have is to select Mrs Clinton as their candidate - we know very little about Mr Obama, but everything about Mrs Clinton, and it may be a case of "the devil you know is better than the one you don't." As importantly, she has articulated her position and policies rather than promising some kind of ephemeral 'change'. Regardless of today's results, the decisive moment will come in Texas, where current polls put her ahead of her rival.
David Cunard, Los Angeles, United States
The African women of SA strode side by side with their African men for decades to end apartheid. When it ended, the women found the African men excluded them from running the country and commerce, just as white Africa had. Salient lesson.
G Comit, Melbourne , Australia