Tim Reid in West Allis, Wisconsin
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Kevin Marth stands in the shadow of the vast, closed down Allis Chalmers tractor factory, brown carpenter gloves hanging from his lumberjack shirt, his breath heavy in this freezing blue-collar Wisconsin town. “I’m for Hillary,” he says. “Most people around here are. That Obama guy, I don’t care for him much. I’m afraid of him. He seems like a real slick talker and I just don’t trust him.”
As Wisconsin prepares to hold its primary tomorrow — the next contest in their Democratic nominating battle — Mrs Clinton knows that her fightback now rests in large part on people like Mr Marth: white, working-class voters without university degrees. It is a constituency that has remained steadfastly loyal to the former First Lady and who will have a huge say in three of the next four big contests.
Aides to Mrs Clinton, who only this week began pouring resources into Wisconsin, are playing down expectations. Mr Obama opened field offices here five weeks ago and has been leading in the polls all month.
Yet Mrs Clinton is quietly hopeful that voters such as Mr Marth will allow her to beat expectations in Wisconsin — or even pull off a win. The polls have tightened in recent days with Mr Obama only four points ahead. Even a close result will yet again change the narrative of their see-saw contest after Mr Obama’s eight straight post-Super Tuesday victories. While Mrs Clinton’s aides have been talking about the undeniably vital importance to her campaign of the March 4 contests in Texas and Ohio, a decision was made last week to take on Mr Obama in Wisconsin.
There are fears in the Clinton camp that another big win for the Illinois senator tomorrow could make his momentum unstoppable — and Texas and Ohio too late — in a race that has now come down to wooing the 300 unelected super-delegates who remain uncommitted to either candidate.
Because the race has been so close, it is virtually impossible for Mrs Clinton or Mr Obama to win enough elected state delegates to get the 2,025 needed to clinch the nomination, even after the final contest in Puerto Rico on June 7.
This now makes the elite club of the party’s 795 super-delegates — its members of Congress, former Presidents and top officials — the potentially decisive electorate in the race. They can back whoever they like. Both campaigns now view the 300 who remain uncommitted as their most critical audience.
Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas are vital to Mrs Clinton if she is to convince this tiny but enormously powerful group of her viability, especially as several black members of Congress previously pledged to her switched to Mr Obama last week.
If she loses all three states, she may well lose the super-delegate race — and thus the nomination. Mr Obama is expected to win the other contest tomorrow, the caucuses in Hawaii, the state where he grew up.
Mrs Clinton spent millions of dollars on television advertisements in Wisconsin last week, criticising Mr Obama for failing to debate with her here. With a new campaign manager, Maggie Williams, she also unveiled a sharper, economically populist message. Like Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania — which votes on April 22 — are economically challenged states with a big proportion of white, blue-collar voters. She is also questioning the substance of Mr Obama’s grandiloquence. “Speeches don’t put food on the table,” she is telling rallies.
Yet Wisconsin also reveals the weaknesses and tactical shortcomings of Mrs Clinton’s campaign. With its white, blue-collar demographics — half the Democratic electorate earns less than $50,000 (£25,000) a year — it ought to have been fertile territory for her, but there are no Clinton campaign signs in West Allis.
The mixed messages her camp has sent over Wisconsin have puzzled many strategists. Mrs Clinton arrived in the state only on Saturday and leaves today. Her campaign never expected the race to last this long and is now trying frantically to play catch-up with Mr Obama’s consistently superior ground organisation.
“Obama’s out-hussled us,” said Jerry Rintamaki, a Wisconsin plasterer supporting Mrs Clinton, after a Bill Clinton rally in Milwaukee.
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Man, Hillary is really going negative. I cannot believe that she would accuse people like me, a young, newly-registered, college educated democrat of being a "cultist."
She's like the woman from the story about King Solomon, she'll cut the baby in half, just so she can keep what she thinks she's entitled to. She's so fixated on her political ambitions that she will cut her own party to ribbons.
If I wanted that, I'd vote for a Republican.
Dav, Adrian, MI
Clinton bragging about experience, she can't sell that against McCain. People don't you see the Bush's and Clinton's want to reduce this great democratic nation to a monarch. First comes Father Bush, then Mr Clinton, then younger bush, then Mrs Clinton. Its been been over 20yrs. What next? One of the two Bush Daughters or is it going to be Chelsie?
If experience is what makes a great leader then dictators who refuse to give up power for decades would have been better leaders too. The ability to bring people together, make them realize their potentials and be able to encourage others to aim higher by being a living proof of it is what I am looking for.
One like Obama is a gift, you can hate him for what he looks like but certainly even Mrs. Clinton would wish they could do what he did.
I am voting for him no doubt and if Clinton wins I am voting for McCain.
kapsindow, Madison, WI
Young and inexperienced slick talker candidate vs years of experience and accomlishments. Hmmmmmmm. Do we need a rocket scientist to figure out who is better?
Raul, Ft. Lauderdale,
Obama should be elected for the very reason Hillary should not, party politics as usual. Obama is the fresh face the party needs to move on, and offer the country a clear choice. To wave the experience flag for Hillary is a tough sell since she only has Senatorial experience as an elected official. I don't count sleeping with the presdent or not sleeping with the president as elected public service. Others were also servicing him as well.
The so called strength of the white middle class, may have more to do with white than working middle class. So the choice is between gender and race for some. Obama will send a clearer message to the world regarding the state of nation than Hillary.
Given all the dirt that can be raked up and used by the republians in the fall against Hillary- do we really want to lose the white house again after eight years?
Obama is electable- Hillary is not.
Joseph Dorociak, Boise, Idaho
The Pied Piper of Hamelin did his charismatic tune and all the rats went his way. Too bad a similar tune is dominating the primaries today and, sadly, so many are entranced hypnotically by a Johnny-come-lately character with an empty, non-specific message called 'change.' Hooray for cultism - it's back, alive and kicking! But stay tuned: It's not over 'til it's over. Remember the comeback kid?
Abe, Wappingers Falls, New York, USA
Regarding Hillary Clinton, let's review:
She voted to authorize the Iraqi invasion and continues to dole out ever penny our illustrious president demands to ensure that Freedom and Democracy continue to spread, and that generations of unborn U.S. taxpayers will have an intimate understanding why excessive indebtedness is such an odious burden.
In a truly visionary move, dripping with integrity, she co-sponsored an anti flag-burning amendment to the U.S. Constitution. All rise as we sing the national anthem...
She voted in favor of the Bankruptcy Bill, which has made it much more difficult for working Americans to get a fresh start when they're smothering in debt. The main cause of Bankrupcty filings in the U.S.? Catastrophic debt brought on by Catastrophic Illness...
Friend to the working person? I'm sure she tips the help at Christmas...
Peter J. McQuaid, Los Angeles, CA, USA
Strange how folks project their hopes and desires onto someone they know little about. Like the guy saying he knows 5 Republicans who would vote for Obama. Let's see, Obam and Hillary are pretty much in lockstep with most issues and in fact, Obama was voted the Senates most liberal member (HIllary was 16th). And yet they would vote for Obama?
I could almost buy into it, since GOPers are basically dumb and don't know what they are voting for anyway. But after the nomination and as soon as the GOPers get their smear camapign going, these folks will bail right away.
One thing the GOPers are right about, America's education system is broken. If it weren't, we would not have so many stupid and illogical GOPers running things.
HarryT, Phoenix, AZ
Josh, I know of five Republicans, family members and friends of mine, who plan on voting for Obama if he is nominated. He is plugging into the concept of us as Americans finally being empowered to take back control of our country. There are millions of conservatives who are sick to death of Bush and who see McCain as simply a continuation of the terribly destructive Bush doctrine. He has said as much. Hillary says she will take care of us. SHE will do this and SHE will do that, while Obama makes us believe that WE can do it. We have the power to set our country on the right path again. Once again I have the hope that this can be true.
mary, Santa Fe, US
This is the most important election of our lifetime, maybe the life of our country, give it great thought. Hillary Clinton is without question the best candidate for the job, if you want experience. At a critical time like this, can we afford to take a chance on an unkown quanity, I think not. I will not take chances with the future of my children, I will not settle for pretty words, I will take my vote seriously, I will support Hillary, I will vote for experience..........
Claudius, Natchez, MS
Wisconsin for Obama. Everyone I know is voting for Obama. If Hillary wins the nomination we will support her, but fear at least four more years of Bush-lite with an evil of two lessers choice.
Pat, Belleville, WI,
The current "civil war" taking place in the Democratic Party highlights how split the party is - the Clinton's representing the establishment [call them the overpaid civil servants, union members and minorities whose tenure and well being are guaranteed by the party] and the Obama group of the new left made up of the normal radical students and a whole plethora of ideologues whose only motivation remains âanti Bushâ]. This battle is ultimately about the far left fighting (Obama) the middle left (Clinton). The leadership of the Democratic Party has failed to read the precarious situation and if this war continues will mean the end of any hope of a Democratic incumbent wining in November. If Clinton wins through undue influence, the Obama camp will boycott en mass â if Obama wins, he will be severely tested by the reality of American âreal politicâ â where reality quickly drowns rhetoric.
John Catsicas, Johannesburg, South Africa
Hey Chuck,
How old was Bill Clinton when he became president? JFK? Abe Lincoln? You would rather put someone in office who was either duped by George Bush on Iraq or (more likely) voted cynically for the war authorization? Someone who couldn't get healthcare through when she had a chance and now takes industry lobbyist money in record amounts? Someone who didn't have security clearances during her husband's administration? What kind of experience is that?
I'll take the guy that has been consistently right over the candidate that has been in Washington the longest. I don't want to live through a Clinton co-presidency.
Geoff Zinderdine, San Jose, California
"says alot the more educated are voting for"
Oh, so you're saying all of those educated, wealthy Republicans knew better when they voted for Bush?
Obama is the Dems' bush..."seems like a guy I could have a beer with" "seems like a guy full of hope"
What a joke. Regardless, I'd wager to say the majority of people in South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and some parts of D.C., Maryland, are not Ph.D's!
Anyone notice in open contests the republicans voting for Obama are almost the same as Dems? WHY?
Um, they want to run against him, that's why..>That's also why Gingrich and Noonan, conservatives from day one are speaking positively of Obama. What a crock of _____.
Hillary 08!
Josh, Akron, Oh
I think it says a lot that the more educated section of American society are backing Obama
AnneMarie, Cork,
When it is all said and done, when the speeches stop, the posturing ends, and the media turns to something new to try to influence, ask yourself a simple question "Did you vote for the person who most said what you wanted to hear, or did you vote for the person with the best record of accomplishment?" Best yet, ask yourself this question BEFORE you vote. . . . . .or risk once again complaining about the leadership of the person YOU put in office! Remember a guy named George Bush? Please don't make the same mistake. . . . .again!!
Chuck, Schaumburg, IL