Tim Hames
Download 'Too Hot', an exclusive Specials track from iTunes

Oh boy is the Democratic nomination race about to become complicated. More so than in any such election for more than fifty years. This battle is supposed to be about who accumulates the most delegates, which sounds very simple. In fact, it has become a quest to demonstrate who has won the better quality of delegates in the contest.
It will take about 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. But of the 4,000 odd souls who will have a vote when the Democratic convention assembles in Denver at the end of August, only 3,250 will have been selected through primaries and caucuses. The remaining almost 800 are the so-called “superdelegates” — elected persons such as Senators, members of the House of Representatives and Governors — as well as senior unelected officials such as the leaders of state Democratic parties. The superdelegate system was invented in the early 1980s as a handbrake in case a front-runner emerged who was wildly popular with atypical liberal activists but not the wider party or the American electorate at large.
The results last night mean that it is impossible for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to secure the nomination based on the primaries and caucuses alone. Either one has to seize at least a decent-sized minority of the superdelegates to prevail in this struggle. The remaining 12 state competitions are, therefore, in a sense not really about winning the prize through the delegates obtained in these places but impressing the superdelegates whose principal concern will be the electability of whoever ends up representing the Democrats in November.
The Obama and Clinton camps will put forward two very different views of whose pledged delegates are superior. Even if Senator Clinton beats him in most of the remaining primaries, the fact that delegates are distributed by proportional representation makes it highly likely that Senator Obama will end the nominating season with more pledged delegates than her. He is already contending that this makes him the “moral” victor and it would be obscene if the superdelegates denied him the nomination subsequently.
This is a strong argument, but only up to a point. There is a division that can be identified within the pledged delegates that may be highly relevant to superdelegates. Among those delegates who have been chosen in caucuses (where turnout is often tiny and dominated by ideological individuals), Obama holds a comfortable lead over Clinton. In states which employ the primary method, by contrast, the two are virtually even and assuming she wins the Pennsylvania showdown on April 22 (which is probable) then she will have the lead within this category even if she is behind him overall.
The split between primaries and caucuses was illustrated perfectly in Texas. That state has an odd hybrid system in which two thirds of its delegates are picked on the basis of its primary and the other third in caucuses which took place right after the primary poll had closed. She seems to have won the primary by 51-47 per cent. He looks as if he took the caucus component (where far fewer votes were cast) by 55-45 per cent. Depending on how the final arithmetic develops it is possible that he could emerge from Texas with more delegates than her even though this newspaper, like every other media outlet, is reporting “Clinton wins Texas”. I did warn this was complicated.
This sort of pattern will disturb the superdelegates. They will worry that Senator Obama consistently fails to win the primaries held in large states (the only one in the top ten by population he has taken is in his home state of Illinois). Many of those who supported Senator Clinton in Ohio yesterday, for instance - disproportionately white voters, often women, on modest incomes - may prefer John McCain to Senator Obama come November. If that happens, the Republicans will retain control over the White House.
So the Obama claim that if he wins most of the pledged delegates then the superdelegates should and will follow their lead may prove hollow in practice. Of the remaining 12 states left, nine are holding primaries and just three caucuses (two of which are in little Guam and Wyoming where there are not many voters or delegates to be had either). If Senator Clinton were to emerge behind on overall pledged delegates but ahead on primary delegates then I think she has a better than even chance of being awarded the nomination by virtue of the superdelegates. The Obama fraternity will scream foul even if she attempts to appease him with the vice presidential nomination (which now strikes me as an offer that she has to make if she is victorious). Oh to be in Denver cometh August.
Win a luxury weekend to Newcastle and its neighbour Gateshead, find out more here
Risk, resilience and embracing new technology
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Discover the power of collective thinking. Submit a solution and be in with a chance to win a Media Hub Home Entertainment System
The inside track on current trends in the charity, not for profit and social enterprise sectors
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Make the most of the summer and enter our fabulous photographic competition, you could win a £5000 holiday
Corsica is an island of beauty and contrast, an ideal holiday destination
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
The clever way to lease a new car is with Car leasing made simple™
2009
per month on 36-month
Personal Contract Hire (PCH)
2008
42850
Car Insurance
£24,250 - £30,346
MI5
London
£60,000
The Environment Agency
Bristol
Up to £90K
Boots
Midlands
OTE £85k
Credit Protection Association
Nationwide Opportunities
Completely London
Luxury Condo's in Manhattan with NYC views
The best new homes in Wimbledon?
Nationwide
Fabulous Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers Including Virgin Atlantic Flights Prices Start From Only £699pp!
Last Minute Cruise And Cruise & Stay Offers. Med From £499pp, Caribbean From £699pp!
5 star quality at a 3 star price.
8 fabulous Canadian cities ...you won’t find cheaper
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Property Finder | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
All wrong, Tim. Not enough folks in Democratic power positions will be willing to stop the first black candidate for the presidency.
Obama will win the nomination.
The real concern is that if he loses the presidential contest, the scale of rioting and killing will be orders of magnitude greater than the USA has ever seen.
jacqui, canberra, australia
Hillary Clinton will go to Denver with the momentum and will walk away winning you will see. I will never vote for Obama. I am sure a lot of people feel that way about Obama. I hate when something is being shoved down my throat. He isn't the best in my mind, Hillary is. Like many say, Obama is barely new on this, wait till all the dirt start to come out and most of the dirt will come from the other party.
Persio, Astoria, NY
Hame's analysis reflects that our vote for president is not a simple question of who gets the most votes on election day - otherwise, we have no George W Bush put in office in 2000 - but is a result of a state by state winner take all electoral college system.
The process in the Democratic party in a few respects is not at all democratic. Caucuses are not a vehicle that will allow for the most participation. If you are a swing shift worker, you are elderly, or are for some reason unable to be at a place at just one appointed time, you are not counted. The Texas vote is a perfect example. Hillary Clinton gets 100,000 more Texans to choose her and it is likely that due to the caucus voting for the time directly after the polls finally closed - when voting was spread out over an extended number of days - it is very likely to leave Hillary Clinton with less delegates. The super delegates are simply one more deliberate check on the will of the people. Like it or not - it's what we have..
Ed Servatius, Syracuse, New York USA
I am a Democrat. I think both candidates are good. HC is more tarnished since she has been in public service for a long time compared to OB who is relatively unkown except his well speeches. I admire HC for being a fighter she is. Though she has been repositioning herself through difficulties and setbacks, her ideology still intacts. I am in doubt about OB as more problems unfolded around his campaign. He said one way, but his advisors then go around and said the others. From the facts that I have been looking at, HC is my choice. Otherwise, I would go for McCain in Nov. I am sure there will be a substantial amount of blue collar whites and minorities like Latino and Asians who have voted democrat in the primary will go for McCain as well if he now how to play it right assumed that he will hire Karl Rove to work for him. The fact is, there is an unspoken message that has been proven overtime through minorities that an African American leader only cares about his same people.
Ma, Oakland, CA
Tim obviously has no clue how the system here works. If Obama comes to the convention with a +100 pledged delegate lead and a lead in the popular vote, then he has to get the nomination. Anything else would be undemocratic and destroy the democratic party. The party can say farewell to the minority, young voters, independents, etc. all of who have voted in record numbers for Obama.
Also, its pretty two-faced of Hillary to hint at a joint ticket with Obama (with her on top, of course) after she has repeatedly said that only she and senator McCain have the "pre-requisite" experience. This simply shows the two-faced nature of Hillary Clinton.
Chris, Atlanta, USA/Georgia
We should be starting with Cinton-Obama '08, Cinton-Obama '12 with AG John Edwards for both terms. Then Obama-Edwards '16, Obama-Edwards '20 and by then we MIGHT get back to the standard of justice we had during the Warren years. Until then y'all Europeans will just consider us fat, impotent belligerents from a pariah state - and rightly so.
Len, Seattle, Wash, US
Wait, people still think McCain's a good candidate? This is the McCain who is hated by half his own party? The McCain who's pushing for 100 or 1,000 years in Iraq, a war the country, as a whole, is sick to death of? The McCain who turned up in Ohio without having thought about how he'd address the financial crisis which has caused 155,000 foreclosures in the state? You think this is the Presidential dreamboat?
I do so hope he has advisers telling him the same thing, because I really want to see the first black or female president win in a landslide. That would be awesome. Keep pushing that 100 year war and ignoring the economy, McCain! I'm right behind you on that one.
Phil Roberts, Manchester, England
David Irby in Ireland. A couple of weeks back I looked into what was happening in the so-called "purple states" or states which could go either way in a general election.
Arkansas: Hillary Clinton 70%, Barack Obama 27%
Florida: Hillary Clinton 50% Barack Obama 33%
Virginia: Barack Obama 64% Hillary Clinton 35%
Iowa: Barack Obama 38% Hillary Clinton 29% John Edwards 30%
Michigan: HC 55%
Ohio: HC win
Wisconsin: 11% poll lead for BO
Nevada: HC victory
New Mexico: Narrow HC victory
New Hampshire: Narrow HC victory
Pennsylvania: Large HC poll lead
Hmm.... so who's best for the swing states hey?
James, Adelaide, Australia
Mr Hames parrots a Hillary spin doctors' argument; her wins are more important because she has won the biggest states and caucus wins are inferior because they are less representative. But all of the big states she has won, except the last two are guaranteed Democratic, and Texas is as solidly Republican, while Ohio is perhaps the most pivotal of the swing states. But because of economic downturn and scandals among its Republican leadership, it will also almost certainly vote Democratic this time. And Pennsylvania is also a solid Blue state. But many of the states Obama has won are important swing states and the mix of caucuses with primaries, gives party activists an enhanced input and they are also vital to a Democratic win. And all opinion polls and exit polls in states that allow independent and/or Republican crossovers, show that these two groups vote overwhelmingly for Obama, and these groups are vital for a Democratic win in the swing states. So, this American says that Obama should remain the more attractive contender in the estimation of intelligent party leaders who are âSuperdelegatesâ.
David Irby, Dingle, Co. Kerry, Ireland
I thick that Obama will bring a big change in this country.
He should not give up no matter what people talk/think about him.
we love you obama you rocks..
Joana, Largo Florida, U.S
All this is irrelevant. John McCain was always the far better candidate and he was always going to win.
Rupert Cramm, Washington DC, USA
I understand that you're providing an analysis about the process but, in so doing, you have regurgitated the Clinton line that primaries are somehow a superior form of democracy than caucuses (albeit you're peddling a curious line about ideology - which caucuses have you participated in then?).
As for which democrat wins in primary states, it doesn't really reveal too much, as either candidate will be up against McCain and this profoundly changes the outcome. If anything, Hillary and McCain compete for similar groups.
The problem with the democratic primary process is that, by dint of attacking Obama on the (unfair) charge of rhetoric over experience, Clinton has effectively damaged either candidate in the general election against McCain, One of McCain's weakness - his geriatric oratorical style ("My friends...") is less of a problem against Barack and Hillary can't compete with him in terms of experience.
Dan, London,
And if she offers him the VP Position he better say no!!!! It would be political suicide to be her VP!
Jennfier, Minneapolis, MN